BRIEF-Citi Sees Oil Prices at +$100/BBL If Direct Conflict Between Iran And Israel Continues

Reuters04-15

April 14 (Reuters) - CITI RESEARCH:

* SAYS "OUR BASE CASE IS FOR TENSIONS TO REMAIN EXTREMELY HIGH IN THE REGION (IRANIAN REGIME’S ATTACK ON ISRAEL) , UNDERPINNING ELEVATED OIL PRICES, WITH OUR 0–3-MONTH POINT PRICE $88/BBL AND OUR 2Q’24 AVERAGE PRICE $86/BBL"

* SAYS "OUR NEW WTI $(OIL.AU)$ 0-3 MONTH PRICE TARGET IS $83/BBL (FROM $75), AND 2Q’24 AVERAGE FORECAST IS $82/BBL (FROM $74)"

* SAYS "A POTENTIAL CONTINUATION OF A DIRECT CONFLICT BETWEEN IRAN AND ISRAEL, WHICH WE ESTIMATE COULD SEE OIL PRICES TRADE UP TO +$100/BBL DEPENDING ON THE NATURE OF THE EVENTS"

* SAYS "WE BELIEVE PROLONGED TENSIONS THROUGH 2Q’24 ARE NOW LARGELY PRICED AT $85-90/BBL (OIL PRICES)"

* SAYS ANY DE-ESCALATION IN THE TENSIONS COULD SEE OIL PRICES FALLING BACK QUITE SHARPLY TO THE HIGH $70S/LOW $80S/BBL RANGE

((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))

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