What to Watch in the Week Ahead and on Monday, April 15


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After stronger payrolls and inflation data for March signaled a delay in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate-cut timing, investors are keenly eyeing other economic data points for further clues. The week begins with the Commerce Department's Census Bureau report on retail sales. The report is likely to show a rise of 0.3% in March retail sales after a 0.6% rise in the previous month. Retail sales, excluding autos, are expected to show a rise of 0.4% for March, having advanced 0.3% in February. Business inventories for March likely went up 0.4%, while it remained unchanged in the previous month. Separately, the National Association of Home Builders is due to report that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index of builder confidence remained steady at 51 in March.

Goldman Sachs will report its first-quarter results. The lender’s profit will likely be hit by a slowdown in trading, partially offset by a recovery in dealmaking. The bank could also book more losses on its credit card business.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly is due to speak before the 2024 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research hybrid Associates Meeting. (2000/0000) Also, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan is scheduled to participate in a panel before the IMF-BOJ Conference: "Gender Diversity in the Workplace as a Key to Economic Growth." (0230/0630)

Statistics Canada is due to report that Canadian factory sales most likely rose 0.7% in February from January, after rising 0.2% in the prior month.

On the LATAM front, Brazil’s IBC-Br economic activity index for February is due.

REST OF THE WEEK Bank of America will report its first quarter result on Tuesday. The bank’s net profit could fall due to lower interest income as it had to pay up for deposits and suffered from sluggish loan growth. Also, Morgan Stanley is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings the same day. Analysts expect the investment bank's profit to fall but the wealth management business to hold up. Investors will also watch out for executives' responses to the recent media report of multiple regulators probing the bank's wealth management unit.

Johnson & Johnson will report its first-quarter results before markets open on Tuesday. Investors will look for any updates to the company's 2024 forecast, the performance of its key drugs including Crohn's disease drug Stelara, which will face competition from near copies in some international markets this year. Focus will also be on J&J's deal strategy and trends in its medical device unit.

On Thursday, Netflix is expected to report rise in revenue and subscribers in the first quarter driven by gains from paid sharing and accelerating ad-tier membership.

A raft of housing data and the weekly jobless claims data is due in the week. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau will report that housing starts likely rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.483 million units in March, easing from 1.521 million units recorded in the previous month. Building permits are expected to slightly decline to 1.515 million units in March from 1.524 million units reported in February. The National Association of Realtors on Thursday is due to report existing home sales slipped a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million units in March from 4.38 million units in the previous month. On Thursday, the Labour Department’s report is set to show initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ended April 13. Separately, Industrial production data on Tuesday is set to show a 0.4% rise in March after inching up 0.1% in February.

Many Federal Reserve policymakers will participate in different events through the week. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester is scheduled to speak on "An Update From the Federal Reserve" before the South Franklin Circle Dialogues Series. (1730/2130) On Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic is due to speak on the economic outlook in a moderated armchair chat before the Prosperity Partnership Fort Lauderdale Meeting. (1100/1500) Bostic is also set to speak on the economic outlook, monetary policy and real estate in a moderated armchair chat at the University of Miami Herbert Business School. (1745/2145) Separately, the same day Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion before the Semafor World Economy Summit on the same day. (0915/1315) Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee, on Friday, will participate in moderated question-and-answer session before the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference. (1030/1430)

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to issue the Beige Book on Wednesday.

Procter & Gamble Co is expected to post a rise in third-quarter revenue on Friday, boosted by steady demand for its products, such as grooming and home-care segments, in the United States and Europe. Investors will look out for comments on Gillette's write-down, price increases, easing cost pressures, margin growth, and demand recovery in China.

On Wednesday, United Airlines is expected to report a loss in the first quarter due to the grounding of its Boeing 737 MAX 9 planes following a mid-air cabin panel blowout on an Alaska Air flight in January. With Boeing grappling with a safety crisis, the focus will be on the airline's plans to mitigate the fallout for its growth plans.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to speak at an event at the Institute of International Finance $(IIF)$ on Wednesday. The same day, Bank of England MPC's Megan Greene is also due to speak as a panelist at an IIF event titled “global economic and risk outlook” in Washington. Separately, European Central Bank policymakers Piero Cipollone and Pablo Hernandez de Cos are also due to speak at the IIF Global Outlook Forum. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will also participate in a fireside chat before the IIF Global Outlook Forum in Washington.

UnitedHealth is set to report first-quarter results on Tuesday before markets open. Comments on the hack at the health insurer's tech unit Change HealthCare, effects of the breach and its impact on the medical costs will be closely watched.

Abbott Laboratories is scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings before the market opens on Wednesday. Focus is expected to be on the company's medical device sales and management commentary on upcoming launches this year.

Northern Trust is expected to post a drop in first-quarter profit on Tuesday as higher funding costs are expected to weigh on the asset and wealth manager's interest income. Analysts and investors will watchout to see if the company continued its momentum after generating positive total inflows in the previous quarter.

Elevance Health will report first-quarter results before markets open on Wednesday. Investors will closely focus on medical costs for the insurer, as demand for medical services during the quarter is expected to be higher than usual. Color on the U.S. government's final reimbursement rates for medical insurers will also be of interest.

The Society of Automotive Engineers will hold a conference in Detroit from Tuesday to Thursday. Ford Motor EV chief Doug Field and Bill Ford, executive chairman of Ford, are among some of the speakers at the event.

Intuitive Surgical is scheduled to reports its first-quarter earnings on Thursday. Investor focus is expected to be on the demand for its robots used in minimally invasive procedures.

Statistics Canada is scheduled to release the country’s inflation data on Tuesday. Annual headline inflation is expected to rise slightly to 2.9% in March from 2.8% in February. On the month, the consumer price index likely rose 0.7%, a jump from 0.3% rise reported in February. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation print is also due the same day.

In Latin America, Argentina’s trade balance data for March is scheduled for release on Thursday.

(Reporting by Ananya Roy in Bengaluru; Editing by Ravi Prakash Kumar)


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