Bearish sentiment above historical averages amid rate cut uncertainty, earnings

seekingalpha04-19

Bearish sentiment among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the stock market rose amid uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and sentiments around several ...

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A total of 34% of respondents of the American Association of Individual Investors, or AAII, Sentiment Survey, said they think the market will trend down in the next six months, compared to 24% polled a week before. The figure is above the historic bearish high of 31%. Earlier on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the monetary policy needs more time to work and did not provide any guidance on interest rate cuts. Powell added that it will likely take longer for the central bank to gain confidence that inflation is headed lower. New York Fed President John Williams also said on Thursday that he doesn't feel an urgency to cut rates. A recent Seeking Alpha analysis pointed out that sentiment is focused on interest rate cuts and inflation expectation. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel caused market volatility and uncertainty, are a major reason for the weak performance of the market. The percentage of those surveyed who felt optimistic about the market came in at 38.3%, a decline from 43.4% last week, according to AAII. Neutral sentiments fell this week, with 27.8% of the investors polled by AAII seeing no change in the market direction. The number was 32.5% the week before. U.S. stocks on Wednesday ended lower, with S&P500 (SP500) posting a four-day losing streak for the first time since the start of the year. Earnings that weighed on the market included Travelers (TRV), which slid ~8% on Wednesday and was a top percentage loser on both the S&P 500 (SP500) and the Dow (DJI) after the insurer missed Street’s expectation. A weak earnings report from Dutch semiconductor equipment ASML (ASML) sent its U.S.-listed stock go down over 7%. Trucking and freight logistics stocks also slipped on Wednesday after J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) and Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX) provided soft reads on demand and pricing with their respective earnings and guidance updates. Meanwhile, economic activity in the U.S. expanded slightly from Feb. 26 to April 8, about the same pace seen in the previous seven-week period, the Federal Reserve said in its April Beige Book report. Nasdaq, S&P and Dow ticked up on Thursday following the report. “I think this pullback is nearing its end and expect the market to rebound in the second half of the year,” said Seeking Alpha analyst Lawrence Fuller. The S&P 500 index (SP500) fell over 3% in the last one week, while Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) declined nearly 2%. NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP:IND) fell over 4%. NASDAQ 100-Index (NDX) declined 4.5% since last Thursday   More news on market  Don't Be Swayed By Bearish Sentiment The Stock Market Sell-Off May Have Only Just Begun A Market Plagued By Uncertainty Nasdaq, S&P, Dow ticked up as Beige Book shows economic expansion Nasdaq sheds more than 1%, S&P posts four-day losing streak, Dow slips slightly","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2428115195"}