Lesson Learned: Don't Bet The Farm, Always Diversify

seekingalpha04-17

I always enjoy sharing personal lessons learned from my experience as a commercial real estate developer and investor.It's important to emphasize the importance of real-life experience over formal ...

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William ReaganAs most of my followers know, I was a commercial real estate developer before writing on Seeking Alpha. This means I’ve been actively involved in the industry for more than three decades (as a developer and/or writer). So I have many lessons learned to share with my readers. I also get to share them at several colleges and universities across the country, where I frequently remind students that “the most durable education is self education.” With all due respect to the institutions they’re attending, there’s no substitute for real-life experience. That’s why I’m very happy that I didn’t end up pursuing an MBA after college. Despite really wrestling with it, I decided that my best path forward was to go right to work with an established real estate developer. So I did just that, signing on with a small developer who happens to own a vast land portfolio. His family had been acquiring land for several generations. In fact, some of their purchases date all the way back to the 17th Century, when England’s King Charles II entrusted eight lords with a region now known as King’s Grant, N.C. By working for a developer with thousands of acres of land, I gained experience in a variety of property sectors. Shopping centers… net-lease holdings… industrial… residential… billboards… cell towers… office buildings… Even a golf course! I'm forever grateful for that experience… even if it did make me antsy at the time to strike out on my own. Many Hits to the Head My first post-college employers were very smart, successful people. And as I learned from them, I got pretty good at what I did too. Soon enough, I was able to strike out with a business partner on larger projects leased to companies like Wal-Mart, Home Depot, and Goodyear Tire. I worked hard to grow that business, of which I owned 49%, helping to bring our portfolio to around $100 million in assets. But I made one major miscalculation along the way. I trusted my business partner. As the majority owner, he made all the decisions and controlled our money’s ebbs and flows. So he could pay out distributions or refinance properties without my consent. Now, on paper my net worth looked solid – something like $20 million. Not bad for a kid who, raised by a single mom, had to take out student loans to go to college. As I like to tell my own children, my net worth was -$50,000 when I graduated. Yet it was $20 million before I hit 40. I was very proud of that. Too much so, I realize, which is why God set out to teach me a lesson in humility. My business partner purchased a large mixed-use project downtown on his own. It was meant to be anchored by a hotel and conference facility. But when that hotel went into foreclosure, he played me for the fool to try to recoup his losses. As a result of his books “shifting,” my equity went to less than zero. I had signed on millions of dollars of debt, which had to be settled and/or paid. It took me years to recover. And just as I was beginning to succeed again, the Great Recession wiped me out a second time. Don’t Bet the Farm I don’t mean to harp on my failed partnership. But I do want to drive home the details behind the lessons I learned (the hard way) because of it. C&T Investments was created in 1990. And I’ll admit, I pretty much made it my financial everything. I spent around 15 years building up its nest egg – which accounted for the majority of my net worth at the time. So, thoughts in my stake went to sub-zero? Believe me, that was a tough pill to swallow. I still drive by a number of the properties I once co-owned. And while I hate the knowledge that I lost all that money, it reminds me of this Benjamin Graham quote: “Adversity is bitter, but its uses may be sweet. Our loss was great, but in the end we could count great compensations.” I was still young enough when I lost everything – again – to rebuild. Not saying it was easy. Because it wasn’t. Not even close. But I was able to do it nonetheless – and in ways I probably wouldn’t have been able to if I’d lost everything later on in life. And there was a very good chance I would have eventually lost everything, considering how un-diversified my investments were. Again, I bet the whole farm on that partnership. Which means I lost the whole farm when it failed. That’s why, today, my real estate investment trust portfolio – which itself is part of a diversified portfolio – consists of more than 25 REITs. Unlike my previous partnership – where one person controlled everything (and it wasn’t even me) – my money is now spread out across varying sectors and geographies. Let’s take a closer look at my larger REIT positions. Realty Income (O) This real estate investment trust (“REIT”) has been collecting rent checks since 1969 and has been paying cash distributions to its owners in the form of monthly dividends throughout its 55-year operating history. Realty Income went public in 1994 and since that time not only has the real estate company paid its monthly dividend without skipping a beat, but they increased the dividend for 29 consecutive years at a compound annual growth rate of 4.3%. In March the company declared its 124th dividend increase since going public in 1994 which puts the new annualized dividend at $3.084 per share, compared to the annualized dividend from a year ago of $3.078 per share. While the change only represents an increase of 0.19%, the company normally increases its dividend each quarter and has done so for the last 105 consecutive quarters. After its merger with Spirit Realty in January, the company’s portfolio now holds more than 15,450 commercial properties that are net leased across all 50 states. In addition to its U.S. properties, Realty Income owns or has an ownership interest in properties in the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Ireland, and Portugal. Realty Income is the largest net-lease REIT with a market cap of approximately $44.7 billion and a 272.1 million SF portfolio. The overwhelming majority of its properties are free-standing buildings with a single tenant, and most of its tenants operate in a defensive retail industry. Additionally, its portfolio holds industrial and gaming properties and the company has shown a recent focus on gaining more exposure to these property types. At year-end, the company’s portfolio had a physical occupancy of 98.6% with a weighted average lease term (“WALT”) of 9.8 years.   O - IRIn addition to its steady and reliable cash flow, the company’s dividend is supported by an investment-grade balance sheet with an A- credit rating from S&P Global and an A3 rating from Moody’s. The company’s debt is 96% unsecured and 94% fixed rate and its debt maturity profile is well staggered with a weighted average term to maturity of 6.7 years. Plus, the company had over $4.0 billion of liquidity at the end of 2023 and strong debt metrics including a leverage ratio of 5.5x and a coverage ratio of 4.7x.   O - IRRealty Income might not have the same growth compared to the newest “A.I.” company but it is the epitome of consistency and has generated positive adjusted funds from operations (“AFFO”) growth in 27 of the last 28 years. Over the long term (since 1996), the company has delivered a median AFFO per share growth rate of ~5%. Over the last 10 years, the company has had an average AFFO growth rate of 4.96%. Pretty consistent.   FAST Graphs (compiled by iREIT©)The same can be said for its dividend. Since 1994 the company has delivered a compound annual dividend growth rate of 4.3% and over the last 10 years the company has an average annual dividend growth rate of 3.92%. Like clockwork, year-after-year, the company continues to increase its cash flow and distributions to shareholders.   FAST Graphs (compiled by iREIT©)While the company has never cut its dividend, it has become more conservative on what percentage of its cash flow is being paid out since the pandemic in 2020. To me this is a good sign of strong leadership in light of what happened during COVID. Just as REITs made great strides to reduce leverage and fortify their financial health after the Great Recession, Realty Income has taken a conservative approach and has maintained a dividend payout ratio below its 10-year average since 2020. This positions the company well in the current economic environment of high interest rates. Retained earnings is the cheapest form of capital for any company. Given the current cost to raise debt and equity capital, the recent dividend policy and additional free cash flow looks to be a prudent and conservative decision by management.   FAST Graphs (compiled by iREIT©)One could argue that Realty Income is the best company to own as an income-orientated investor. Its dividend history is almost unrivaled among other publicly-traded REITs and its business model enables the company to generate smooth, consistent, and increasing cash flows year-after-year. I think with any investment, it's important to know what your objectives are. Realty Income is not a “get rich” type of investment. It's not tech, it is not A.I. Rather, it's a conservative investment in a company that should continue to collect rent checks and generate increasing cash flow for its shareholders. It's the ultimate buy and hold investment and should be viewed as such. Just like a rental I recently purchased, I’m not too concerned about the property’s market price each day, but I'm concerned if there is a tenant in place, if they're timely with their rent payments, and if the return is commensurate with the risk. At today's price, the stock pays a dividend yield of almost 6%. Analysts expect AFFO per share growth to range between 2% and 4% until 2026. At a 6% yield and ~3% growth, the company looks to offer a high-single-digit operating return over the next several years. Currently, the stock is trading at a P/AFFO of 12.85x, compared to its 10-year average AFFO multiple of 18.41x. We rate Realty Income a Strong Buy.   FAST GraphsDigital Realty Trust (DLR) Digital Realty is a REIT that owns and operates data centers around the world. It specializes in providing comprehensive data center, colocation, and interconnection solutions that support leading enterprises across multiple industries. Data centers are specialized facilities that house servers, network equipment, storage devices, and other hardware that facilitate the delivery of content and digital services. They require special designs for enhanced cooling and environmental controls as well as the infrastructure in place to pull in vast amounts of electricity. DLR has a diversified customer base that operates across multiple industries including cloud computing, e-commerce, social media, gaming, financial services, and telecommunications. Some of its top customers include AT&T, Oracle, Meta, IBM, JPMorgan, Comcast, and Verizon. As of its most recent update, the company receives 49.9% of its recurring revenue from its top 20 customers. The company has a portfolio of over 300 data centers located across 28 countries, spanning five continents. At the end of 2023 its portfolio consisted of:  124 Data Centers located in the United States 112 Data Centers located in Europe 36 Data Centers located in Latin America 14 Data Centers located in Africa 14 Data Centers located in Asia 6 Data Centers located in Australia, and 3 Data Centers located in Canada    DLR - IRDigital Realty has an investment-grade balance sheet with a BBB credit rating from S&P Global and a Baa2 rating from Moody’s. At the end of 2023 the company had roughly $17.4 billion of total debt that consisted of ~$16.8 billion in unsecured debt and ~$0.6 billion in secured debt. The company has a net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 6.2x, a fixed charge coverage ratio of 3.8x, and a long-term debt to capital ratio of 47.60%. Additionally, the company has modest near-term debt maturities and a well-laddered debt schedule with a weighted average term to maturity of 4.4 years.   DLR - IROver the last decade, DLR has had an average AFFO growth rate of 4.85%. The data center REIT’s earnings are more volatile than the previous company we looked at with four years of negative AFFO growth out of the last 10, however, on average, the growth rate is still solid at almost 5% per year. Analysts project DLR to exceed its 10-year growth average with AFFO per share expected to grow by 5% in 2024, and then by 8% and 5% in the years 2025 and 2026, respectively.   FAST Graphs (compiled by iREIT©)Since 2014 the company has had an average dividend growth rate of 4.60% per year. It increased the dividend each year between 2014 and 2022 but did not increase it in 2023.   FAST Graphs (compiled by iREIT©)DLR’s current AFFO dividend payout ratio of 83.56% is above its 10-year average of 75.55%, but still well within reason to easily cover its dividend. I can’t know this for sure, but I suspect the reason the company did not increase its dividend last year was to strengthen its AFFO payout ratio, which has inched up over the last two years. Analysts expect AFFO per share to increase to $6.11 in 2024 and the dividend to be maintained at $4.88 per share. If these projections are accurate, it would result in a 2024 AFFO payout ratio of ~79.9%. Still above its 10-year average but an improvement all the same.   FAST Graphs (compiled by iREIT©)Given the recent and ongoing adoption of A.I., data centers are arguably the hottest property type right now. Even the industrial behemoth Prologis (PLD) has been making significant investments in data centers recently. Not to mention the joint venture Realty Income just formed with Digital Realty to build two data centers in Northern Virginia. There are various opinions on what impact A.I. will have and how large it will get, but most can agree that there is enormous potential and that it will require massive investment in digital infrastructure. In a recent interview with CNBC, BlackRock’s Chairman and CEO Larry Fink stated that: “Well, the combination - AI cannot truly happen unless there’s a huge investment in infrastructure. The amount of energy that is required for AI... is enormous, and the amount of power generation. We will run out of electricity if we are going to fully adapt a full AI world. And so, the need to build on - this is all going to stimulate our economy, by the way, to build out a more AI and - which at the backside is that means building out more electricity, power….. Datacenters and all that.” I believe that we're still in the first innings of the A.I. revolution and agree that a ton of investment in infrastructure will be needed to support the technology. DLR stands to benefit from this trend as it is one of the leading providers of cloud – and carrier-neutral data center solutions. The stock pays a 3.42% dividend yield and trades at a P/AFFO of 24.09x, compared to its 10-year average AFFO multiple of 19.51x. We rate Digital Realty Trust a HOLD.   FAST GraphsMid-America Apartment (MAA) Mid-America is a sunbelt-focused apartment REIT that specializes in the development, acquisition, and management of multifamily properties that are primarily located in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southwest regions of the country. The company has a market cap of approximately $14.8 billion and owns or has an ownership interest in 296 multifamily communities that contain 100,894 apartment homes across 16 states and the District of Columbia. One defining characteristic of MAA is the emphasis it places on markets within the Sunbelt. MAA targets Sunbelt markets due to the favorable demographic, migration and economic trends in the region such as population growth, rising incomes, and job creation. Based on the percentage of same store net operating income (“NOI”), the company’s top three markets are all in the Sunbelt. MAA’s largest market is Atlanta, GA at 12.7% of its NOI, followed by Dallas and Tampa at 9.6% and 7.2%, respectively. MAA attempts to generate stable and increasing cash flows through multiple real estate investment cycles. To that end, the company diversifies its holdings by market, sub-market, class, and property type. Most of MAA’s properties are in large markets at 70%, but around 30% of its portfolio is made up of properties in mid-tier markets. Similarly, the company diversifies across price points with Class (A, B+) properties representing 51% of its portfolio, Class (A+, A) representing 38%, and Class (B, B-) representing 11% of the company’s portfolio. By property type MAA offers garden style as well as mid and high-rise apartments. The company’s garden style apartments have three stores or less and make up the majority of its portfolio at 63%, followed by mid-rise and high-rise which make up 33% and 4%, respectively.   MAA - IRIt’s no secret that the Sunbelt region has had high in-migration rates for years due to quality of life and enhanced economic opportunities. It’s also no secret that the influx of residents and businesses to the Sunbelt has been a catalyst for new multifamily construction and supply. While more supply is never a good thing for a landlord, MAA’s portfolio is well-positioned for the current environment as it is diversified across multiple markets, styles, and price points. I especially like the fact that the majority of its portfolio is made up of Class (A, B+) properties, which could offer a value proposition compared to the new supply in its markets. In its 2023 full-year earnings release, Eric Bolton, the CEO of Mid-America, stated that they expect the new supply to persist through the summer, but that new apartment deliveries are expected to decline toward the end of 2024.   MAA - IRMid-America is investment-grade with an A- credit rating from S&P Global. The company has a fortress-like balance sheet with a net debt to adjusted EBITDAre of 3.6x, a long-term debt to capital ratio of 34.39%, and a debt service coverage ratio of 7.8x. The company’s debt has an average interest rate of 3.6% and a weighted average term to maturity of 6.8 years. Plus, at the end of 2023 the company had $791.8 million of combined cash and availability under its credit revolver.   MAA - IROver the last decade, MAA has delivered an average AFFO growth rate of 5.52%. Analysts expect AFFO per share to fall by -3% in the current year, but then to increase by 2% in 2025 and then increase by 8% in 2026. As previously mentioned, new supply in MAA’s markets has had an adverse impact on rent growth, but this is expected to improve over the next several years.   FAST Graphs (compiled by iREIT©)The company has an impressive dividend history, with no suspensions or cuts since its IPO in 1994. More recently, between 2014 and 2023 the company increased its dividend each year and has an average dividend growth rate of 7.37% over this time period.   FAST Graphs (compiled by iREIT©)While the company has increased its dividend each year over the past decade, it has maintained a conservative AFFO dividend payout ratio with the metric ranging from 60.95% to 69.57%. In 2023 the AFFO payout exceeded its 10-year average, however, an AFFO payout ratio under 70% is pretty conservative and should enable the company to easily maintain and grow its dividend.   FAST Graphs (compiled by iREIT©)Currently the stock pays a 4.59% dividend yield and trades at a P/AFFO of 15.70x, compared to its 10-year average AFFO multiple of 19.18x. We rate Mid-America Apartment a Strong Buy.   FAST GraphsIn Closing If I sound repetitive in these final paragraphs, I apologize. But I do want to stress something nonetheless. I really like the three REITs I discussed above. They’ve had their bumps and bruises along the way, it’s true. But as long-term investments, they’ve treated me very, very well. Even so, I don’t bet the farm on them. I’m not “in love” with any of these companies. Not even Realty Income, which I know most of you know I like to write about. A lot. I’m not even “in love” with these holdings as a trio. As I wrote in the third segment, I own over 25 REITs altogether, along with a healthy selection of non-real estate assets. I understand not everyone has the money to own that many investments – especially if they’re just starting out. But no matter your financial status, take my word for it. Don’t bet the entire farm on a single asset. Instead, carefully evaluate what you have and what your goals are. Then act accordingly to build the most intelligently assorted portfolio you can. When things get rocky – and they always eventually do – you’ll almost certainly find that diversification helps keep your portfolio afloat… And your nerves much, much more calm.  Author's note: Brad Thomas is a Wall Street writer, which means he's not always right with his predictions or recommendations. Since that also applies to his grammar, please excuse any typos you may find. 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