Brokers respond to BHP March Qtr result: Strong copper and iron ore not enough to outweigh terrible coal

LiveWire04-19

BHP Group (ASX: BHP) released its third quarter production report yesterday. It was up only 0.3% on the day, against a broader market rise of 0.5%, and that’s with positive leads from copper, nickel, ...

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It was up only 0.3% on the day, against a broader market rise of 0.5%, and that’s with positive leads from copper, nickel, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/brokers-respond-to-bhp-march-qtr-result-strong-copper-and-iron-ore-not-enough-to-outweigh-terrible-coal\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"livewire_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brokers respond to BHP March Qtr result: Strong copper and iron ore not enough to outweigh terrible coal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrokers respond to BHP March Qtr result: Strong copper and iron ore not enough to outweigh terrible coal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-19 12:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/brokers-respond-to-bhp-march-qtr-result-strong-copper-and-iron-ore-not-enough-to-outweigh-terrible-coal><strong>LiveWire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>BHP Group (ASX: BHP) released its third quarter production report yesterday. It was up only 0.3% on the day, against a broader market rise of 0.5%, and that’s with positive leads from copper, nickel, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/brokers-respond-to-bhp-march-qtr-result-strong-copper-and-iron-ore-not-enough-to-outweigh-terrible-coal\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4581","symbol_name":"高盛持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/brokers-respond-to-bhp-march-qtr-result-strong-copper-and-iron-ore-not-enough-to-outweigh-terrible-coal","article_id":"2428502863","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"livewire_stock","url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/brokers-respond-to-bhp-march-qtr-result-strong-copper-and-iron-ore-not-enough-to-outweigh-terrible-coal","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2428502863","pubTimestamp":1713502559,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"livewire_stock","name":"Livewire Markets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"BHP Group  released its third quarter production report yesterday. It was up only 0.3% on the day, against a broader market rise of 0.5%, and that’s with positive leads from copper, nickel, and iron ore prices on Wednesday.Copper and nickel prices have surged even further overnight, and iron ore prices are hovering near 6-week highs. At the time of writing BHP is down, a market-perform at best, so you could say it has been a lukewarm response to the quarterly report from investors so far.The major brokers have been busy tweaking their numbers for BHP in light of the new data, and that means a fat pile of BHP research reports on my desk this morning!I’ve read them all, and here’s a summary of the best bits, along with the latest updates to ratings and price targets.FY24/25 EBITDA revised down 2% due to adjustments in production volumes and lowered forecast for June quarter iron ore price from US$120 to US$110. March quarter iron ore and copper production was inline with expectations, as","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BHP.AU":"BHP GROUP LTD","BK7507":"资源股","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","RIO.AU":"力拓","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","BK4168":"多种金属与采矿","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK7511":"ESG概念","BHP":"必和必拓公司","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4211":"区域性银行","BK4588":"碎股","FCF":"第一联邦金融","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H"},"translate_title":"经纪人回应必和必拓3月季度业绩：强劲的铜和铁矿石不足以超过糟糕的煤炭","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FCF":1,"RIO.AU":1,"BHP":1,"BHP.AU":1},"content_text":"BHP Group (ASX: BHP) released its third quarter production report yesterday. It was up only 0.3% on the day, against a broader market rise of 0.5%, and that’s with positive leads from copper, nickel, and iron ore prices on Wednesday.\nCopper and nickel prices have surged even further overnight, and iron ore prices are hovering near 6-week highs. At the time of writing BHP is down, a market-perform at best, so you could say it has been a lukewarm response to the quarterly report from investors so far.\nThe major brokers have been busy tweaking their numbers for BHP in light of the new data, and that means a fat pile of BHP research reports on my desk this morning! I’ve read them all, and here’s a summary of the best bits, along with the latest updates to ratings and price targets.\nCiti\nRetained at BUY; Price Target: $48.00\n\nMarch quarter production was broadly as expected\nCare and maintenance, then closure, most likely for upcoming WA nickel business update\nFY24/25 EBITDA revised down 2% due to adjustments in production volumes and lowered forecast for June quarter iron ore price from US$120 to US$110\nBHP is trading on a FY26 price to earnings ratio (PE) of 11.3 and enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EV/EBITDA) of 5.5, this compared to long-term average of 14 and 6.4 respectively\n“So valuation is still supportive and we are heading into the seasonally strong period for China steel production”\n\nCLSA\nRetained at UNDERPERFORM; Price Target: $45.00 from $43.50\n\nPrice target upgrade is due to recent upturn in commodity prices\nNegative weather impacts did not materially impact broadly achieving consensus estimates\nNotes some concerns regarding Nickel West outcomes, rising costs\nStill prefers Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) due to that company’s greater consistency in execution\n\nGoldman Sachs\nRetained at BUY; Price Target: $49.00 from $49.20\n\nMarch quarter production was “slightly stronger” that expected\nIron ore and copper production beat broker’s forecasts by 2%, but metallurgical coal production was 17% below expected\nNo change to FY24 and FY25 forecast earnings per share (EPS), but FY26 trimmed by 2%\nFeels BHP valuation is “attractive” but remains “at a premium” to RIO\n“We remain bullish on copper” says broker, BHP’s copper contribution to EBITDA is expected to increase from current 30% to 43% by FY26\n\nJP Morgan\nRetained at OVERWEIGHT; Price Target: $52.00\n\nMarch quarter iron ore and copper production was inline with expectations, but metallurgical coal and nickel were below expectations\nNotes current support from attractive valuation and appreciates BHP’s exposure to improving base metals markets\nExecuting on planned operational improvements, as well as upcoming strategic reviews will be important in determining future performance\n\nMacquarie\nRetained at NEUTRAL; Price Target: $42.00\n\nMarch quarter iron ore and copper production was inline with expectations, as was metallurgical coal (but broker had very low expectations compared to consensus)\nCopper performance was “key” to result\nBroker sees “complexity” in BHP hitting its iron ore production target of 305 mtpa, even after accounting for fire and weather impacts\nFY24 EPS forecast is cut by 1%, but by 2.3% for FY26 and beyond\n“BHP's asset quality is unrivalled with WAIO, Escondida, Antamina and Jansen. Organic growth optionality is limited; new options are needed”, says the broker\n\nMorgan Stanley\nRetained at EQUAL-WEIGHT; Price Target: $47.00\n\nBroker reported no change to their investment thesis as a result of the March quarter update, but noted a “modest shortfall\" in the company’s financial results versus consensus\nBroker expects a “modest” revision lower to next 12-month consensus EPS\n\nMorgans\nRetained at ADD; Price Target: $48.30 from $47.60\n\nOperational performance was strong in the March quarter after taking into account weather impacts at coal operations\nIron ore and copper divisions are expected to maintain their strong performance\nBroker notes positive progress at Jansen Stage 1\nBroker notes BHP’s solid earnings quality and growth prospects\n\nRBC Capital Markets\nRetained at SECTOR PERFORM; Price Target: $45.00\n\nMarch quarter performance (ex-metallurgical coal) was better than expected\nMetallurgical coal division triggers broker to downgrade its free cash flow (FCF) and EPS estimates\nWA Nickel strategy update could be a risk event, and is expected by the time BHP reports FY24 results in August\nBroker appreciates BHP’s strong FCF and its dividend yield\n\nUBS\nRetained at NEUTRAL; Price Target: $44.00 from $45.00\n\nSuggests March quarter performance was mixed, pointing out a strong copper result, but worse than expected results from metallurgical coal and nickel\nMetallurgical coal and nickel performances have triggered a cut to FY24 EPS forecast\nBroker indicates it still prefers RIO on the back of that company’s better FCF\nAppreciated copper potential, particularly at Escondida and Spence, but remains concerned about nagging underperformance of metallurgical coal\n\nBHP broker consensus\nBased upon the above individual ratings and price target, let’s calculate a BHP broker consensus. I like to assign a value of 0 to any rating better equivalent to a HOLD/NEUTRAL, a +1 to any rating better, and a -1 to any ratings worse. If the average rating is +0.5 or greater, I call it a BUY, and if the average rating is -0.5 or worse, I call it a sell.\nOn this basis, BHP’s average score is +0.44 giving it a consensus rating of HOLD/NEUTRAL.\nThe price target is a little easier. The average price target for BHP among the brokers sampled is $46.59, marginally higher than the average price target of $46.55 prior to the March quarter update. If you prefer, BHP’s median price target is unchanged at $47.\nBased upon BHP’s price at the time of writing of $44.55, this allows for 4.6% upside to the broker’s average price target, and 5.5% upside to their median price target.\n\nThis article first appeared on Market Index on Friday 19 April 2024.\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2428502863"}