China's economic growth looks set to moderate after Q1 GDP beat - Deutsche Bank

seekingalpha04-18

While China has surpassed growth expectations so far this year, the world’s second-largest economy may not be able to sustain the same expansionary pace in the near-term, according to Deutsche Bank. ...

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The economy grew 5.3% in the first three months of 2024 from a year ago, government data released Tuesday showed. The result outstripped consensus expectations of 5% growth, which was also Deutsche Bank’s forecast. Gross domestic product expanded 1.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the fourth quarter of 2023. The fourth-quarter rate was upwardly revised to a 1.2%. The country marked its seventh straight period of quarterly growth and the strongest increase since the first quarter of 2023. “However, the beat in headline GDP should be interpreted with caution,” Yi Xiong, Deutsche Bank’s China chief economist, said in a note earlier this week on Tuesday. “Deflation pressures remained as GDP deflator stayed negative for a fourth consecutive quarter. March activity data also disappointed. Property sector activity stayed at the bottom with little signs of a rebound.”  The 5.3% headline pace was buoyed by in part by “strong” 6% growth in the industrial sector. But Xiong flagged a potential slowdown in industrial-output growth because of less favorable base effects and downward pressures from prices and demand. That in turn could lead to a moderation in sequential-growth momentum, likely to slightly above 1% in the next few quarters.  Meanwhile, industrial production and retail sales activity in March each grew by less than anticipated, at 4.5% and 3.1%, year on year. “We estimate overall activity growth has decelerated in March, to 4.6% YoY from 5.4% YoY in the first 2 months,” Xiong said.  Xiong projected services-sector growth may continue to run at or slightly above 5%. “We are encouraged by the steady improvement in consumer spending and reduction in their savings rate, and expect this trend will continue.” Deutsche Bank raised its 2024 full-year growth forecast by half a percentage point to 5.2%, and said it sees a “balanced risk” around its outlook.  “Upward surprises may come from exports (if global economy strengthens) and domestic demand (if government stimulus measures are more effective than expected), while downside risks could arise from a further deterioration in property investment, trade frictions, and geopolitical risk events,” Xiong said. Chinese stock indexes, ETFs and currencies: CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300), SHANGHAI Index (SHCOMP), iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI), Chinese Yuan/US Dollar (CNY:USD).   More on China and the markets  Dollar Consolidates But Adjustment Is Not Over Will The Market Push The Dollar Above JPY152 As Japanese Prime Minister Heads To The U.S.? Gold, Oil, And Interest Rates Rise China stocks end at five-year low as rescue bets fade amid macro concerns","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2428597036"}