SILJ: There Is Still Time As Silver Experiences A Bullish Breakout

seekingalpha04-17

Silver prices have been lagging gold, but recent bullish technical formations have ignited a rally in silver.Silver has reached its highest price since February 2021 and could potentially challenge ...

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Nishasharp More than 5,000 years ago, before 3,000 BC, the first Egyptian Pharaoh, Menes, made a significant observation. He stated that two and one-half parts silver equals one part gold, thereby establishing the silver-gold ratio. This value metric has been a cornerstone in measuring silver versus gold prices, a key insight that continues to shape our understanding of these precious metals. Gold and silver have been currencies for thousands of years. Gold's role in the worldwide financial system has increased over the past years as central banks, monetary authorities, and governments have purchased gold to increase their strategic reserves. The International Monetary Fund classifies a country's gold holdings as part of its foreign currency reserves, validating gold's role as money. Silver's penchant for price volatility has prevented the metal from reaching gold's status in the global financial system. However, silver remains a precious metal and store of value. Moreover, its profile is rising due to increasing industrial applications in electronics and solar panels. This diversification of demand sources further solidifies silver's position in the market. Gold has made a series of record highs over the past years, and in 2024, silver prices remain far below the 2011 and 1980 peaks at around the $50 per ounce level. Silver has lagged gold, and silver mining shares have lagged silver. The Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:SILJ) could catch up with silver while silver catches up with gold over the coming months. A recent bullish technical formation on the daily chart ignited a rally in silver that has taken the metal to a multi-year-high. A bullish key reversal pattern on the daily chart in early April On Friday, April 5, silver put in a bullish key reversal pattern on its daily chart.   Short-Term COMEX Silver Futures Chart (Barchart) The three-month May COMEX silver futures chart (XAGUSD:CUR) shows that the price fell below the April 4 $26.785 low on April 5 to $26.40 before closing at $27.807, above the April 4 $27.455 high. The bullish key reversal pattern triggered follow-through buying, which took silver prices over the $29.90 per ounce level. The highest price since mid-2021 May silver futures rose to $29.905 per ounce on April 12.   Monthly COMEX Silver Futures Chart (Barchart) The monthly chart illustrates silver’s rise to the highest price since February 2021. At the same time, silver futures have made higher lows and higher highs since the September 2022 $17.32 low; the April 5 bullish reversal triggered the rally that has taken silver to a three-year-high. The next upside technical target is at the February 2021 $30.16 high is critical long-term resistance and could be a gateway to a challenge of the 2011 and 1980 highs at around the $50 per ounce level. Silver has been lagging gold - Historical volatility could ignite silver prices While silver prices remain more than $20 below the record peak, gold (XAUUSD:CUR) continues to make new all-time highs. Gold futures also put in a bullish key reversal pattern on Friday, April 5, leading to higher highs in uncharted territory. Silver is more volatile than gold.   Monthly Silver Chart with Historical Volatility (CQG) The monthly chart shows silver’s historical volatility around the 26.64% level.   Monthly Gold Chart with Historical Volatility (CQG) Gold’s reading below 15.2% is significantly lower, reflecting silver’s penchant for higher price variance when trends develop. The recent bullish reversals were bullish for both gold and silver, but silver has outperformed gold, given its higher historical volatility. The silver-gold ratio measures the relative value of each metal over time.   Monthly Chart of the Silver-Gold Ratio (CQG) The monthly chart of the continuous COMEX gold futures contract divided by the continuous COMEX silver futures contract highlights the ratio made a lower 90:1 high in February 2024 and fell below 84:1 in April 2024, reflecting silver’s outperformance on a percentage basis. Bullish price action in the gold and silver markets continues to favor silver, which could be on the verge of an explosive rally. Silver mining shares lagged silver in Q1 Silver prices rallied 3.45% in Q1, settling at the $24.916 per ounce level. At $28.27 on April 16, silver was already 13.5% higher in Q2 2024. The leading diversified silver mining ETF products are the GX Silver Miners ETF (SIL) and the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF.  In Q1, SIL moved 3.2%, underperforming silver. In early Q2, at $30.39 per share, SIL was 10.7% higher, slightly underperforming the silver futures. In Q1, SILJ moved 0.70% lower, underperforming silver. In early Q2 at $10.87 per share, SILJ was 9.5% higher, also underperforming silver futures.  Mining shares tend to be far more volatile than the underlying commodity because miners invest significant capital for exploration and production. Senior miners are often less volatile than junior miners because exploration is a more speculative business. Therefore, a significant rally frequently causes junior mining shares to soar as speculators seek leverage through exploration companies. SILJ - Will 2020 be a model for 2024? While there is no guarantee that past performance repeats, the 2020/2021 silver rally and explosive move in the SILJ could be a model for silver in 2024. Silver prices rose 157% from a pandemic-inspired $11.735 March 2020 low to $30.16 per ounce in February 2021.   Five-Year Chart of the SILJ ETF Product (Barchart) As the chart highlights, SILJ rose over 289% from $4.84 in March 2020 to an $18.84 high in February 2023. SILJ provided leverage to the silver price, but it is not a leveraged ETF product experiencing time decay. SILJ’s most recent top holdings include:   Top Holdings of the SILJ ETF Product (Seeking Alpha) At $10.83 on April 16, SILJ had nearly $845 million in assets under management. SILJ trades an average of over 2.89 million shares daily and charges a 0.69% management fee.  I wrote about SILJ on March 18, 2024, on Seeking Alpha when May silver was $25.235 per ounce, and SILJ was $9.45 per share. At $28.27 and $10.87, silver and SILJ were 12% and 15% higher, respectively, on April 16. SILJ has provided leverage to silver’s ascent, and higher silver prices could continue the junior mining ETF’s outperformance over the coming weeks and months.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2428803579"}