MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Flash PMI data for EU eurozone, Germany, France, UK; trading updates from Renault, Deutsche Boerse, Novartis, Kering, Sasol
Opening Call:
Shares look set to rise in Europe on Tuesday amid easing geopolitical tensions. In Asia, stock benchmarks gained; Treasury yields were flat; the dollar consolidated; while oil was mixed and gold slipped.
Equities:
European shares are poised to open higher on Tuesday ahead of a raft of global economic data.
Easing tensions between Israel and Iran could help restore some market confidence.
Flash estimate national and eurozone preliminary purchasing managers indexes are due Tuesday, Germany's Ifo business sentiment index on Wednesday and France's monthly business sentiment survey on Thursday. Meanwhile, first-quarter U.S. GDP is due Thursday and the personal-consumption-expenditures price index on Friday.
Also, the first-quarter U.S. earnings deluge begins this week, with more than 30% of S&P 500 companies set to report results, according to FactSet.
Forex:
The dollar consolidated in Asia.
As long as U.S. economic activity remains solid, the cyclical uptrend in the U.S. dollar is intact, Brown Brothers Harriman said in a note.
First-quarter U.S. GDP data on Thursday, and the March PCE inflation report on Friday, "are expected to back American economic exceptionalism, " it said.
Bonds:
Treasury yields were little moved ahead of economic data later in the week.
Yields remain near their highest level of the year as markets ready for a big earnings week -- with roughly 30% of S&P 500 companies set to report quarterly results.
On Thursday, traders will also get a look at how the U.S. economy fared in the first quarter, followed by the latest reading on the Fed's preferred inflation reading on Friday.
Energy:
Oil prices were mixed in Asia after Brent crude oil ended Monday at its lowest level since late March, as Middle East tensions appeared to ease.
Traders also shifted some of their focus back to inflation and the prospect of the interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
Overall, oil prices should "remain elevated until a more widespread easing of tensions in the region takes hold," or if OPEC+ "decides to bring more barrels into supply," said Tradition Energy.
Metals:
Gold weakened in Asia after the most-active gold futures contract marked its worst one-day percentage decline in over a year on Monday, as geopolitical concerns eased.
Upcoming U.S. economic data may provide important clues on the future trajectory of interest rates, which can significantly affect the attractiveness of nonyielding assets like gold, said CFI.
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Copper prices were lower in a likely technical correction and some profit-taking following its recent rally to a 22-month high amid positive sentiment and supply risks.
The belief that miners will struggle to meet strong demand has sent the base metal prices just shy of $10,000 a ton, ANZ Research said.
Meanwhile, the recent U.S. and U.K. sanctions on Russian metal supplies have raised concerns of supply disruptions, it said.
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Iron ore edged higher in early Asian trade on likely improving market sentiment.
The rebound in market sentiment, combined with an improved supply and demand cycle, has led to a strong upward trend in iron ore prices recently, Baocheng Futures said.
The resumption of production by steel mills in China continues to push up the demand for iron ore, it added.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
U.S. Takes Aim at Chinese Banks Aiding Russia War Effort
The U.S. is drafting sanctions that threaten to cut some Chinese banks off from the global financial system, arming Washington's top envoy with diplomatic leverage that officials hope will stop Beijing's commercial support of Russia's military production, according to people familiar with the matter.
But as Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to Beijing on Tuesday, the question is whether even the threat of the U.S. using one of its most potent tools of financial coercion can put a dent in complex and burgeoning trade between Beijing and Moscow that has allowed the Kremlin to rebuild a military badly mauled by more than two years of fighting in Ukraine.
Israel Moves Closer to Rafah Invasion as Iran Crisis Wanes
TEL AVIV-As tensions with Iran ease, Israel's military is gearing up to complete what it says is unfinished business: Uprooting Hamas from its last stronghold in the Gazan city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians are taking shelter.
Israeli leaders say they intend to go ahead despite vocal opposition from the country's most important ally, the U.S., which has warned that a full-scale move on the enclave could cause widespread civilian casualties and disrupt humanitarian-aid efforts aimed at preventing famine.
Gold posts biggest one-day drop in over a year as geopolitical concerns ease
Gold and silver futures dropped on Monday, pressured as investors priced in fading geopolitical tensions, with appetite swinging toward stocks and other assets perceived as riskier.
"With Iran and Israel apparently backing away from any further direct confrontation for the time being, there was only so long that gold and silver could defy the gravity of rising bond yields and rising year-end [Federal Reserve interest] rate forecasts," Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, told Market Watch.
Technology stocks show signs of 'breaking down' ahead of Big Tech earnings
Technology stocks were broadly showing signs of "breaking down," as the sector struggles in a slump this month that has deepened significantly, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
The S&P 500's information-technology sector tumbled 7.3% last week, its biggest weekly drop since the stretch ending March 20, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Tech is the biggest sector in the S&P 500, which slid 3% last week.
SAP Stock Rises on Earnings Report
The German enterprise software giant SAP reported quarterly results that were a smidgen ahead of Wall Street's expectations. The stock is up in late Monday trading.
For the March quarter, SAP reported total revenue of EUR8.04 billion, up 8% from a year ago or 9% adjusted for currency and a hair above the consensus estimate of EUR8.02 billion, as tracked by FactSet.
Israelis Fled These Towns After Hamas Attacked. Now They're Coming Home.
SDEROT, Israel-On Oct. 7, as rockets streamed overhead and Gazan militants rampaged through her town of Sderot, Keren Elkobi hid with her three sons and husband all day in their home's bomb shelter, fearing for their lives. The next morning, as the fighting continued, they packed the children in the car and sped away as fast as they could.
Five months later, despite lingering anxiety, they are living in Sderot again, less than a mile from the Gaza border.
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Expected Major Events for Tuesday
06:00/DEN: Apr Business tendency survey
06:00/UK: Mar Public sector finances
07:15/FRA: Apr France Flash PMI
07:30/GER: Apr Germany Flash PMI
08:00/EU: Apr Eurozone Flash PMI
08:00/POL: Mar Retail Sales
08:30/UK: Apr Flash UK PMI
09:00/MLT: Mar RPI
12:00/POL: Mar Broad money M3
12:00/HUN: Apr Hungarian interest rate decision
All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 23, 2024 00:02 ET (04:02 GMT)
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