Not A Millionaire? No Problem! Here's A 10-Stock Portfolio To Retire Comfortably

seekingalpha04-23

The retirement crisis may not be as bad as it seems, with most retirees doing fine with less savings than expected.A low-risk portfolio consisting of dividend growth stocks can yield substantial ...

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No Problem! Here's A 10-Stock Portfolio To Retire Comfortably\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-23 19:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4685186-not-a-millionaire-no-problem-heres-a-10-stock-portfolio-to-retire-comfortably><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The retirement crisis may not be as bad as it seems, with most retirees doing fine with less savings than expected.A low-risk portfolio consisting of dividend growth stocks can yield substantial ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4685186-not-a-millionaire-no-problem-heres-a-10-stock-portfolio-to-retire-comfortably\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SH","symbol_name":"标普500反向ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4685186-not-a-millionaire-no-problem-heres-a-10-stock-portfolio-to-retire-comfortably","article_id":"2429160991","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/643757808/image_643757808.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2429160991","pubTimestamp":1713870020,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Bloomberg $1.4 million is a very scary number for a lot of people, as most are unlikely to ever reach that number. 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It had the title \"You Don't Need To Be A Millionaire To Retire.\"  The Wall Street Journal The article starts by mentioning the same $1.46 million retirement goal number I highlighted i","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","HD":"家得宝","HRL.AU":"HRL Holdings Ltd","BK4120":"环境与设施服务","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2505996681.GBP":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","NNN":"NNN REIT INC","ABBV":"艾伯维公司","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","CME":"芝加哥商品交易所","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU0731783394.SGD":"Fidelity Global Dividend A-MINCOME(G)-SGD","IE00BFTCPJ56.SGD":"Janus Henderson Global Life Sciences A Acc SGD","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","ABT.AU":"Abundant Produce","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","O":"Realty Income Corp","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","JNJ":"强生","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","HRL":"荷美尔","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","BK4016":"铁路","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","IE0009355771.USD":"骏利亨德森环球生命科技A Acc","WM":"美国废物管理","CFA.SI":"NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT","ABT":"雅培","UNP":"联合太平洋","WMT":"沃尔玛","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","SCHD":"Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK7047":"环境与设施服务","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"不是百万富翁？没问题！这里有一个10只股票的投资组合，可以让你舒适地退休","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ABBV":1,"WMT":1,"WM":1,"UNP":1,"SCHD":1,"O":1,"NNN":1,"JNJ":1,"HRL.AU":1,"HRL":1,"CME":1,"ABT":1,"HD":1,"ABT.AU":1,"VOO":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"CFA.SI":0.85,"SH":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6},"content_text":"The retirement crisis may not be as bad as it seems, with most retirees doing fine with less savings than expected.A low-risk portfolio consisting of dividend growth stocks can yield substantial returns over time.By focusing on disciplined investing and prudent risk management, financial security in retirement is attainable for everyone.   CiydemImages Introduction I have to be honest. Preparing this article took me an unusually long time, as it's a very important topic that likely applies to almost everyone reading this article. The topic of discussion is the retirement crisis, a theme I have increasingly covered over the past few years. For example, on April 5, I wrote an article titled \"Building A $1.4 Million Retirement Fund: 4 Stocks Yielding Up To 6% To Get The Job Done.\"  In that article, I wrote the following: [...] the expected amount to retire comfortably in the United States has risen by 50% over the past four years. It's now north of $1.4 million! Bloomberg $1.4 million is a very scary number for a lot of people, as most are unlikely to ever reach that number. For example, below are three retirement-related headlines from Google News. They all scream: \"Panic!\" Google News Quoting CNN, we find some daunting facts (emphasis added):  But saving for retirement is a far off thought for many Americans – just 44% of US adults could afford to pay an emergency expense of $1,000 or more from their savings, according to Bankrate data. High rates of inflation, the resumption of student loan payments and the erosion of pandemic-era savings means more Americans are finding themselves at a loss for funds. Many are prematurely tapping their 401(k) accounts because of financial distress and paying steep penalties for it, according to a recent Vanguard survey.  With that said, the main point of this article isn't to scare anyone. On the contrary, this article has one main goal: I want to explain that even with minor adjustments, it is possible to be better prepared for retirement - despite the retirement \"crisis.\" Hence, in the remainder of this article, I'll show you some upbeat facts and show you a portfolio that, I believe, has the ability to help people build wealth and income without taking above-average risks. So, as we have a lot to discuss, let's get to it! It's Not *That* Bad Before we continue, I have to say that the situation I explained above is serious. Many years of elevated inflation and above-average interest rates have created a very tricky situation for many people. Telling people who can barely afford to pay for groceries to \"just buy dividend growth stocks\" probably won't help a lot. That said, in general, the retirement crisis may not be as bad as one might think. This brings me to The Wall Street Journal article that caused me to write this article. It had the title \"You Don't Need To Be A Millionaire To Retire.\"  The Wall Street Journal The article starts by mentioning the same $1.46 million retirement goal number I highlighted in my article earlier this month as well. However, it makes the case that this figure seems exaggerated, especially considering that the average retirement savings for U.S. adults is only $88,400. In other words, most of \"us\" (I'm not American) won't be able to reach that goal anyway. The good news is that contrary to these numbers, data from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking show that retirees don't need such substantial savings to feel financially secure. Most people are enjoying life with much less!  Among respondents 65 to 74 between 2019 and 2022, 3% said they were “finding it difficult to get by,” 12% were “just getting by,” 37% were “doing OK” and 49% were “living comfortably.” Most retirees report that they’re doing fine in other surveys, too. Moreover, the paragraph below really stood out to me (emphasis added):  Of the seniors with more than $10,000 in retirement savings, less than 1% said they were finding it hard to get by, while 93% reported they were doing OK or living comfortably. Among the subgroup with $50,000 to $99,999 in savings—a small fraction of what retirees are told they need—3% found it hard to get by, 11% were just getting by, and 86% were either doing OK or living comfortably.  In other words, a huge majority of people with less than $100 thousand in savings are doing just fine. Sure, they won't likely be buying German sportscars, Swiss watches, or Miami penthouses, but that's not the goal for most when they make plans for retirement. So, why are these people doing so well? According to The Wall Street Journal, Social Security benefits play a significant role in retirees' financial security, as it provides a substantial income that exceeds the elderly poverty threshold for many couples. An average couple retiring in 2022 received total annual benefits of roughly $46,000. That's up from $34,600 (in today's dollars) in 2000. Again, that's not a number that will turn you into a regular customer at Hermès. However, it provides a great foundation for retirement, especially when adding that conventional financial planning tends to overestimate how much money the elderly really need. Typically, spending drops by roughly 40% from age 65 to 90. Once we're older, we don't need that much. RAND data from December 2022 confirms this: RAND.org Please note that this article is not aimed at discussing the coverage of Social Security, meaning assessing how secure Social Security may be for future generations. That's another discussion. What matters is that we can have a significant impact on the quality of our retirement if we start investing early - even if we invest small amounts. After all, as we discussed in the first part of this article, many people aren't even able to invest anything to begin with. Building A \"Low-Risk\" Income Portfolio In light of what we just discussed, I kept a few things in mind:  I will present a low-risk portfolio with the ability to outperform the market over time, generate income, and consistently grow this income. Half of the portfolio will consist of an ETF. Usually, most people would be better off investing in ETFs only. However, as this is Seeking Alpha, the focus is on generating Alpha. On top of that, I have no doubt almost all of my readers are perfectly capable of managing a portfolio consisting of single stocks. The focus is not on getting very rich with this portfolio. The goal is to show that it is possible to build a great nest egg for retirement without having to take on absurd financial risks.  Speaking of risk, we have to take risks to achieve good results. Legendary investor Howard Marks emphasized this in his latest memo: Investors must accept that success is likely to stem from making a large number of investments, all of which you make because you expect them to succeed, but some portion of which you know won’t. You have to put it all out there. You have to take a shot. Not every effort will be rewarded with high returns, but hopefully enough will do so to produce success over the long term. The good news is that we don't have to take uncalculated risks. In fact, as I wrote in countless prior articles, by investing in proven dividend growth stocks, we can achieve above-average returns with below-average volatility (risk)!   Nuveen This is based on at least two key factors. As I wrote in a recent article:   Strong financials and business models: Companies that can consistently raise their dividends typically have healthy finances, stable earnings, and a strong competitive advantage. This allows them to generate excess cash they can return to shareholders through dividends. Or, to put it differently, they have proven they can withstand the test of time. Management discipline: A company's decision to raise its dividend reflects a commitment to shareholder returns. This suggests that management is focused on long-term growth and profitability. After all, if you manage a company with a consistent track record, the focus shifts automatically to sustainable long-term growth.   Now, let's take a look at the portfolio.            Weighting Company Industry Dividend Yield 5Y CAGR Payout Ratio S&P Credit Rating   50% Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) Dividend ETF 3.5% 11.8% N/A N/A   5% Waste Management Inc (WM) Professional & Commercial Services 1.5% 3.3% 45.2% A-   5% Union Pacific Corp (UNP) Freight & Logistics Services 2.3% 10.1% 50.4% A-   5% Home Depot Inc (HD) Specialty Retailers 2.7% 13.9% 56.4% A-   5% Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Pharmaceuticals 3.4% 5.8% 45.5% AAA   5% AbbVie Inc (ABBV) Pharmaceuticals 3.8% 8.3% 53.9% A-   5% Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Healthcare Equipment & Supplies 2.1% 12.1% 48.3% AA-   5% CME Group Inc (CME)* Investment Banking & Investment Services 2.2% 9.3% 47.1% AA-   5% NNN REIT Inc (NNN) Retail REIT 5.7% 2.6% 69.0% BBB+   5% Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) Packaged Foods 3.3% 7.0% 68.0% A-   5% Walmart Inc (WMT) Discount Stores 1.40% 2.20% 34.4% AA   Click to enlarge * = CME Group usually pays a special dividend in January. It distributes roughly 100% of its free cash flow through dividends each year. Its total estimated full-year yield is somewhere in the 4.5-5.0% range.  The overview below visualizes that half of the portfolio consists of the SCHD ETF. To me, this is the best dividend ETF on the market, as it has a great mix of yield, dividend growth, and diversification. Leo Nelissen Moreover, all companies have investment-grade credit ratings. Even better, nine out of ten individual companies have a rating in the A-range, which is truly special. Even the BBB+ rating is two steps above the threshold for investment-grade ratings, which is a BBB- rating. On top of that, just two companies are what I would call \"cyclical.\" These companies are Union Pacific and Home Depot, two giants in the industries they serve with rich histories of buybacks and dividend growth. Data by YCharts All other stocks have anti-cyclical profiles, including CME Group, which is a financial stock. While its stock price behaves cyclically, its business model consists of a wide range of stock exchanges that make more money when volatility picks up. That's why the company usually sees an increase in revenues when recessions cause a spike in stock market volatility. Data by YCharts Moreover, three out of ten individual stocks are healthcare companies. This includes a focus on medical devices and fast-growing drug segments. I also added Waste Management to capture secular growth in the industry with the same name (waste management). Data by YCharts On top of that, I added Walmart, and NNN REIT, which is a net-lease REIT with more than 30 consecutive annual dividend hikes. It's boring, but in a positive way, as it has a fantastic real estate portfolio of mostly essential properties. I see it as a \"mini\" Realty Income (O). Last but not least, I added Hormel Foods, a Dividend Aristocrat that offers good value due to current inflation headwinds on its portfolio. Data by YCharts As you can see:  I added zero energy. Excluding SCHD, the portfolio does not hold any basic material companies. I added just two industrial companies - one of them is anti-cyclical.  Usually, I always include at least some of these companies above to add inflation protection. However, in this model portfolio, I went for safety and low volatility first. Nonetheless, I still added inflation protection, as I believe that most companies come with pricing power. For example, Waste Management has mostly contracts tied to inflation, Union Pacific has fuel surcharges and active pricing strategies, healthcare has strong secular growth, and all three have pricing power. On top of that, SCHD has 17% industrial exposure, 9% energy exposure, and 4% materials exposure. With all of this in mind, the results speak for themselves.  As we can see in the overview in this article, the portfolio has a current yield close to 3%, which is great for income. The five-year weighted dividend CAGR is 9.6%. While I expect dividend growth to fall a bit due to economic headwinds, I have zero doubt that these stocks will provide elevated dividend growth for many decades to come. This portfolio has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 with a more favorable volatility profile!  Going back to 2013, this portfolio has returned 14.6% per year, beating the 14.3% annual return of the S&P 500 by 30 basis points. It has achieved this with a standard deviation of just 12.7%, roughly 200 basis points below the S&P 500's standard deviation. As a result, the model portfolio has a substantially higher Shape Ratio (volatility-adjusted return) and a 91% market correlation. While this portfolio has not outperformed the S&P 500 by much, it's still a very impressive performance, as the S&P 500 benefitted from its tech exposure. This portfolio has limited technology exposure - only through SCHD. Portfolio Visualizer Even better, during this period, the portfolio's max drawdown was less than 18%. The S&P 500's biggest sell-off was 24%. Moreover, unlike the S&P 500, this model portfolio has a somewhat elevated yield of almost 3%. The S&P 500 yields just 1.3%. Investors who bought this portfolio in 2013 with $10,000 received roughly $1,350 in pre-tax dividends last year. That's a 13.5% yield on cost. Portfolio Visualizer With all of this said, we can use this framework to build a nest egg that can help us retire comfortably, especially with backing from Social Security. Since 2013, the portfolio returned 14.6% per year. If we assume the portfolio can maintain this return, an investor who invests just $100 at the start can build a $285 thousand portfolio in 20 years by investing $200 per month! Again, that's purely theoretical. SmartAsset Even a return of 10.0% per year ends up in a final portfolio balance of more than $150 thousand after 20 years. SmartAsset If you are a bit better off and able to invest $5,000 at the start with $400 monthly contributions, you can end up with $340 thousand after 20 years (10% annual return). SmartAsset Again, none of these examples will generate mind-blowing wealth. However, we can build enough money to retire very comfortably in the future. Even better, we can do it without taking unnecessary financial risks. Although the returns in the years ahead could be subdued due to the market's lofty valuation, the model portfolio presented in this portfolio has the potential to provide above-average returns with a highly attractive risk profile. All things considered, even smaller retail investors can do just fine by sticking to a few rules:  Make sure to invest whatever you can after expenses. Do not take unnecessary risks. There is no point in buying risky assets if \"slow-and-steady\" gets the job done. Sure, some may be fantastic stock pickers and find the most undervalued micro-cap stocks (or whatever). However, for most, that's not advisable. Stick to gradual investing in dividend growth stocks and similar low-risk assets. Buy assets you trust during recessions. Too many people panic when things go south and end up selling valuable companies that tend to recover rapidly when market sentiment improves. That's why the portfolio in this article puts so much emphasis on safety.  And last but not least, enjoy the investment journey! Takeaway In a world where retirement seems like an unattainable dream for many, my latest exploration into the retirement crisis reveals a surprising truth: it's not as dire as it may seem. As it turns out, most retirees are actually doing just fine with much less savings than expected. My model portfolio, designed with low-risk and steady growth in mind, shows that even modest investments can yield substantial returns over time. By focusing on proven dividend growth stocks and careful diversification, we can build a nest egg that offers both security and comfort in retirement.  So, while the road to retirement may seem daunting, it's important to remember that with disciplined investing and prudent risk management, financial security is within reach for most people.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2429160991"}