BUZZ-COMMENT-Sentiment shift could trigger deeper gold retracement

Reuters04-23

April 23 (Reuters) - Although uncertainty surrounding major central bank policy persists, the easing of Middle East tensions could trigger a deeper pullback in the price of gold.

The hunt for safety following concern that the Israel-Iran conflict could escalate lifted gold to a record high of $2431. The yellow metal had gained nearly 35% in value since October, 2023 and over 50% in a 19-month rally from September, 2022.

The recent acceleration higher gave warning that a sharp change in direction, under the weight of profit taking, could develop into a deeper trend reversal. Stronger than expected U.S. GDP and PCE data this week could also add weight to any further retracement.

Technically, if gold remains at or below current levels, $2304, into month-end, a strong bearish candlestick pattern would form. A monthly shooting star, a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, little or no lower shadow and a small real body near the lows, suggests that the market is rejecting higher prices.

A minimum correction of the $1809-$2431 October-April climb comes in at $2284 and the correction of the $1614-$2431 September 2022 to April 2023 bull run is at $2238.

These Fibonacci retracement levels provide pullback targets should a deeper drop from $2431 take hold.

For more click on

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Gold monthly candle chart:

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own, editing by Ed Osmond)

((peter.stoneham@thomsonreuters.com))

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The yellow metal had gained nearly 35% in value since October, 2023 and over 50% in a 19-month rally from September, 2022.</p><p>   The recent acceleration higher gave warning that a sharp change in direction, under the weight of profit taking, could develop into a deeper trend reversal. Stronger than expected U.S. GDP and PCE data this week could also add weight to any further retracement. </p><p>   Technically, if gold remains at or below current levels, $2304, into month-end, a strong bearish candlestick pattern would form. 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