March Readers Marked 20 Ideal-To-Buy Dividend Dogs

seekingalpha04-24

Prior to March 31, 2024, my readers mentioned 32 equities in their comments on my articles. Some bad-news investments (ROgues) mixed with (mostly) FAvorites. Thus, they remarked about the ReFa/Ro.Ten ...

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Some bad-news investments (ROgues) mixed with (mostly) FAvorites. Thus, they remarked about the ReFa/Ro.Ten ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4685581-march-readers-marked-20-ideal-to-buy-dividend-dogs\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4592","symbol_name":"伊斯兰概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4685581-march-readers-marked-20-ideal-to-buy-dividend-dogs","article_id":"2429443331","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/468989644/image_468989644.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2429443331","pubTimestamp":1713953363,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"We’re trying to predict the future here, Kings and Aristocrats might hold up but may be too old and feeble to last. 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Some bad-news investments (ROgues) mixed with (mostly) FAvorites. Thus, they remarked about the ReFa/Ro.Ten analyst-target-estimated top net gain ReFa/Ro: JNJ, HEES, AGNC, PFE, ACRE, PFS, EFC, VALE, ESEA, and SQM averaged 34.61% net gains from reader data collected 4/19/23.Ten analyst-target-augured March top price upside reader faves & rogues (ReFa/Ro) were: O, EPR, JNJ, HEES, EFC, PFE, PFS, VALE, ESEA, & SQM, boasting a 26.84% average target price upside estimate.By yield, the following ReFa/Ro made the top ten: VVR, PBR, EFC, PDI, VALE, FSK, XFLT, ACRE, AGNC, OXLC. They averaged 14.72% annual yield. Two stocks made all three lists this month: VALE & EFC.$5k invested in the lowest-priced five of these top-yield ReFa/Ro dividend dogs showed 15% LESS net-gain than from $5k invested in all ten. Bigger (higher-priced) ReFa/Ro dogs out-ran this pack by one and one-half lengths in March. Of the 32 mentioned, 20 qualified as “ideal”, as their dividends from $1k invested exceeded their single share prices.   Fly_dragonfly Reader Selections Since May 2017, any dividend-paying stock mentioned in a message, e-mail or comment to the author is fair game for a reader favorite listing in this series of articles. Thus, It is possible that only rogues and discontinued, or dreadful, doubtful, dividend issues may appear. Frequently readers and other contributors have questioned the intent, purpose, validity, and usefulness of my daily stock lists. Most, however, praise the effort to sort promising opportunities out of the thousands of dividend offers. After all, yield counts when searching for dividend winners. Furthermore, my dog catching is, by method, a contrarian investing strategy which is known to rub some investors the wrong way. It is most useful for new buyers; intended to guide readers to new purchases of dogs on the dips. These lists are suggestions, or warnings, not recommendations. Most valuable to the writer, however, are reader comments that truly catch errors in my calculations or changes in direction. Examples like the reader who missed my \"safer\" dividend follow-up articles because they contain dividend payout ratios. In June 2022, high yields were alleged, by one reader, to be sure signs of Roguishness. Not true, high yields are sure signs of high yield, how long the elevated yield lasts, depends on share price and corporate directors. High Beta is the most accurate measure of Roguishness. Reader suggestions of buy and hold dividend stocks are most welcome and sure to be reported on my ReFa/Ro posts. That’s my ultimate goal, of course, to find ten or twenty sure-fire long-term dividend payers purchased when their single share prices are lower than the dividend paid from $1K invested. Suggestions, please! We’re trying to predict the future here, Kings and Aristocrats might hold up but may be too old and feeble to last. In February 2022, one reader suggested an option strategy for monthly-paying dividend stocks: \"You should identify where options are available on the Monthly dividend stocks. What I do is find mo-pay stocks with options, I buy and write covered calls about 6 - 12 months out. I look for a scenario where I collect the dividend and get my stock bought back at a much lower price than I pay, but pocket a premium that makes up the loss. This gives me a dividend boost, since my cost is lower. It's like a guaranteed CD with little risk.\" Another reader suggested I dial back my blatant opinion that high-yield equates to high-risk:  \"The article says \"high dividends are a sure sign of high risk\". It should be \"high dividends might be a sign of high risk\". \"If a good stock/ETF/CEF with a 5% dividend drops simply because the whole market dropped, the dividend could get to 8 or 9%. I think that's a great time to buy because the high dividend and low price makes it a low risk investment.”  More than one writer has decried my favoritism for low-priced stocks. They especially dislike my \"ideal\" stocks whose dividend returns from a $1k investment equal or exceed share price. A prime example is Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI), the satellite radio and Pandora music catalog owner, priced recently at $3.16 easily passes my test (of dividends from $1k invested exceeding share price) with a forward dividend yield of 3.4%! A little under $1k investment now buys 316 shares, and they'll throw the owner a return (from that $1k invested) of about 10.75 times the share price. Assuming all things remain equal, SIRI dividends alone will pay back their purchase price in 29.4 years (and that assumes the satellite radio and subscription music services can survive that long)! Last year, in December 2023, a reader suggested my share price equal or less than the income from a $1k investment was too low. I agree with him that opportunities are lost and that many strong stocks exist at higher prices. For example, even the dividend from $10k invested in Apple Inc. (AAPL) could not buy one share of that stock. Plainly nobody buys Apple for the dividend, just growth. However, I was reminded by a comment this week that some readers take “dividends from one $1K invested” to mean the annual return from just one share. If the single share price of a stock is $20 and the annual yield is 3.00%, the dividend paid from $1k invested is $30.00 or 1.5 times the single share price. In January 2023, the following exchange occurred:  Sorry, but I'm confused. Why does it matter if a stock is $1000 per share and pays a $50 dividend, or $20 per share and pays a $1 dividend. Isn't that the same 5% yield? But if I'm following your logic, you would like the latter because the total dividend from $1,000 invested is more than the individual share price, but you wouldn't like the former because it isn't. Am I missing something?  You’re right. Both the $1000 stock paying a $50 dividend and the $20 stock paying a $1.00 dividend cost $20 per dollar of dividend. Thus, neither is preferable because you've still spent $1000 to get $50 in dividends. The difference is entirely in the share count. One share versus 50. Which would you prefer to own? Should the return from $1k invested exceed single share price? The debate rages, meanwhile dividend investors crave an easy to locate starting point for their initial dividend investment. What price are you paying for your divided? It’s a simple rule of retailing, and the lowest cost per dividend dollar wins (or goes out of business). The dogcatcher ideal balance point is a sweet spot to use for reference. A rule of thumb, so to speak. Six months ago, a reader made a prediction that PacWest (PACW) would be the next bank to collapse. You heard it here first! Late summer, a pause in Fed interest rate hikes left PACW close to surrender, but could it hang in when the hikes returned? Its assets, as of December 16, 2023 were acquired by Banc of California. The new entity is now traded under the ticker BANC. PACW is no longer and entity to trade. What bank will be next to fail? Every month, readers would grumble that they can’t find my nine Dogs of the week portfolios in my service site. This year, SA has listed all the postings on my group by date. So to find the summary and reference guide to each portfolio look at: August 22, 2015 for I October 13, 2016 for II September 12, 2017 for III September 13, 2018 for IV (Ivy) September 8, 2019 for V (Volio) September 12, 2020 for VI (Vista) October 10, 2021 for VII (Viital) October 8, 2022 for VIII (Viking) October 7, 2023 for IX (Ignition). Incidentally, the VIII (Viking) portfolio of Dividend Dogs for each week launched on October 3, 2022. The Viking ‘safer’ stock reports have been gathering since November 4, 2022 and will post its last return on October 4, 2024. My Ignition (DOTW IX) portfolio launched October 6, 2023 will have all its selections in place by October 4, 2024 and post its last return on October 3, 2025. This winter, a reader asked what the XN rating in the Market Cap column of my Yield and Target Price charts means. Here is my summary of those codes: Dogcatcher Market Cap Codes L= $10B+ M= $2B-$10B S= $200M-$2B XN=<$200M An observation from April 2023: “Mr. Arnold, I enjoy reading your many articles and get some great ideas from them. However I find the number of charts are a bit of overkill, many duplicating the info. I'm sure you have your set format and reasons why, but I'd be happy with only two charts; your sort by target gains and your sort by div yield. It would make it a much easier read. Thank You — pmbrandt 15Apr2023” I’d gladly just submit those two charts and ditch all the verbiage. However, fourteen years ago, when I started submitting articles, the SA editorial team said they needed text to go with the graphics and topsy was born. Still, there are complaints of too many words for little information. No doubt, less is more! I’ll be sure to make my Dividend Kings and all the other articles are less obfuscating. Foreword Note that in March, readers mentioned 20 stocks whose dividends from a $1K investment exceeded their single share prices. These are listed below by yield: The ReFa/Ro March Ideal Dividend Dogs  source: YCharts Above are the 20 ideal candidates derived from the 32 tangible results from reader favorite & rogue equities received prior to March 31, 2024. YCharts data for this article was collected as of 4/19/24. Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Estimated 19.72% To 58.31% Net Gains From 10 ReFa/Ro Stocks To March 2025 Four reader-favored top-yield March stocks were verified as being among the top 10 gainers for the coming year based on analyst one-year target-prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, this yield-based forecast for reader-fave stocks, as graded by Wall St. wizards, was deemed 40% accurate. Estimated dividend returns from $1k invested in each of the highest yielding stocks, plus the median one-year analyst target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2024-25 data points which identified probable profit-generating trades. (Note: one-year target prices by lone analysts were not counted.) Thus, the ten probable top March profit-generating trades projected as-of April 19, 2025 were: source: YCharts Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) was projected to net $593.14 based on the median of target price estimates from 17 analysts, plus the projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 41% over the market as a whole. A Rogue. Euroseas Ltd. (ESEA) was projected to net $550.49 based on the median of target price estimates from 2 analysts, plus the projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate is subject to risk/volatility 14% less than the market as a whole. A Fave. Vale S.A. (VALE) was projected to net $472.16, based on the median of target price estimates from 24 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 3% less than the market as a whole. VALE is a fave. Ellington Financial (EFC) was projected to net $335.01, based on the median of target price estimates from 7 analysts, plus the projected annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 92% over the market as a whole. A rogue. Provident Financial Services (PFS) was projected to net $315.04, based on the median of target price estimates from 5 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 25% over the market as a whole. It's a rogue. Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) was projected to net $285.69, based on the median of target estimates from 5 analysts, plus annual dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 25% over the market as a whole. It's a rogue. Pfizer (PFE) netted $269.98 based on the median of target price estimates from 22 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 39% under the market as a whole. It’s a favorite. AGNC Investment (AGNC) was projected to net $240.30, based on the median of target price estimates from 11 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 45% over the market as a whole. A rogue. H&E Equipment Services (HEES) netted $201.65 based on the median of target price estimates from 5 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 95% over the market as a whole. A rogue. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) netted $197.19 based on the median of target price estimates from 21 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 47% under the market as a whole. It is a fave. Average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 34.61% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average risk/volatility 34.61% over the market as a whole. March 2024 top-ten gainers counted six rogues and four favorites.   Source: Open source dog art from dividenddogcatcher.com The Dividend Dogs Rule The \"dog\" moniker was earned by stocks exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. So, the highest yielding stocks in any collection have become affectionately known as \"dogs.\" More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, \"underdogs.\" 32 For the Money Yield (dividend/price) results from YCharts.com verified by Yahoo Finance for ReFa/Ro stocks as of market closing prices 3/20/24 for 32 equities and funds revealed the actionable conclusions discussed below. See any Dow 30 article for an explanation of the term \"dogs\" for stocks reported based on Michael B. O'Higgins book \"Beating The Dow\" (HarperCollins, 1991), now named Dogs of the Dow. O'Higgins' system works to find bargains in any collection of dividend paying stocks. Utilizing analysts' price upside estimates expanded the stock universe to include popular growth equities, as desired. 27 ReFa/Ro By Target Gains Source: YCharts  Actionable Conclusions (11-20): ReFa/Ro Top Rogue Dog, OXLC, Led 32 By Yield Through March  source: YCharts The 32 ReFa/Ro sorted by yield included 10 of 11 Morningstar sectors, and five closed end investment companies. Ten top reader-mentions by yield in March were led by the first of four CEICs, Oxford Lane Capital (OXLC) [1]. The other CEICs placed fourth, seventh, and tenth: XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust (XFLT) [4], PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI) [7], and Invesco Senior Income Trust (VVR) [10].  Next, four financial services members placed second, third, fifth and eighth: AGNC Investment Corp [2], Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp [3], FS KKR Capital Corp (FSK) [5], Ellington Financial [8]. Then, one materials sector representative placed sixth, Vale S.A. [6] and finally, a lone energy representative placed ninth: Petrobras (PBR) [9], to fill-out the top 10 March ReFa/Ro by yield as of April 19, 2023 data. Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top 10 ReFa/Ro By Price Upsides Showed 10.63% To 21.31% Increases Through to March 2025 source: YCharts To quantify top dog rankings, analysts' median price-target estimates provided a \"market sentiment\" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analysts' median price-target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains. Analyst Targets Revealed A 15% Disadvantage For 5 Highest-Yield, Lowest-Priced ReFa/Ro Stocks Through March 2025 10 top ReFa/Ro were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking. source: YCharts As noted above, top 10 ReFa/Ro selected 4/19/24, showing the highest dividend yields in March represented three sectors and closed end investment companies: financial services (4), Materials (1), Energy (1), CEICs (4). Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced Of 10 Top-Yield Reader Favorites & Rogues To (31) Deliver 19.14% Vs. (32) 22.52% Net Gains by All 10 Through March 2025 source: YCharts $5k invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top 10 ReFa/Ro kennel by yield were predicted by analyst one-year targets to deliver 15% LESS net gain than $5k invested in all 10. The seventh lowest-priced ReFa/Ro top-yield equity, Vale SA, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 47.22%. source: YCharts Five lowest-priced ReFa/Ro top-yield dogs for March as of April 19 were: Invesco Senior Income Trust, Oxford Lane Capital Corp., Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp., XAI Octagon Floating Rate and Alternative Income Trust, AGNC Investment Corp., with prices ranging from $4.25 to $9.15 per share. Five higher-priced ReFa/Ro as of April 19 were: $Ellington Financial Inc.(EFC-B)$, Vale Inc., Petrobras, PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund, FS KKR Capital Corp., whose prices ranged from $11.42 to $19.39. The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of 10 reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' \"basic method\" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains, based on analysts' targets, added a unique element of \"market sentiment\" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 15% to 85% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change. The 32 equities and funds discussed in this article were submitted within comments from Seeking Alpha members noted below. Afterword Here is the full pack of 32 March ReFa/Ro  (Listed alphabetically by ticker symbol, the pack includes the nicknames of recommending readers.) source: SeekingAlpha/YCharts Note that this month readers mentioned twenty Dogcatcher Ideal stocks that offer annual dividends from a $1K investment exceeding their single share prices. 20 Dogcatcher Ideal ReFa/Ro Dogs from March source: YCharts The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of \"dividends\" from any investment. Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your ReFa/Ro dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations. Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.  Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; Yahoo Finance - Stock Market Live, Quotes, Business & Finance News; analyst mean target price by YCharts. 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