Camtek: Why The AI Story May Have Been Overplayed

seekingalpha04-24

The stock has risen thanks to AI enthusiasm in the stock market, but the real impact of AI on CAMT may be overstated.The year 2024 is expected to be a great year for CAMT, but the stock rally has ...

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href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4685644-camtek-why-the-ai-story-may-have-been-overplayed><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock has risen thanks to AI enthusiasm in the stock market, but the real impact of AI on CAMT may be overstated.The year 2024 is expected to be a great year for CAMT, but the stock rally has ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4685644-camtek-why-the-ai-story-may-have-been-overplayed\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0053671581.USD","symbol_name":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 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months. The stock, for instance, has tripled in value in the past 12 months, and that's with a recent pullback in the stock. Still, the stock has wavered in recent weeks for a couple of reasons, especially in recent days with the AI thesis coming under pressure. Many AI plays are under closer scrutiny as a result, and there may be reason to question whether the AI boost is being overplayed in the case of CAMT. Why will be covered next? The rally in the stock has lost steam A previous article from almost a year ago or May 2023 rated CAMT a hold after concluding that even though the stock was stuck in a holding pattern at that time, there was reason to think the stock was priming itself for a move higher in the near term. The article noted, for instance, how the stock was repeatedly stopped in its tracks close to a Fibonacci retracement level, which helped explain why the stock was dealing with resistance in the $27-29 region. However, there was reason to believe resistance was likely to be broken. The chart pattern, for instance, featured, among other things, higher lows in the stock price, a bullish sign. The stock kept coming back to bang on the door each time it was blocked by resistance, a sign resistance was under pressure and likely to yield with no relief. As it turned out, resistance gave way. Not only that, CAMT proceeded to go on a rally that resulted in the stock multiplying in value in less than a year. The chart below shows how the stock was essentially stuck going sideways for over a year before breaking out in June 2023. The huge rally that followed brought the stock up to $90 or so by February 2024, more than tripling CAMT's market cap in the process. Source: Thinkorswim app However, the rally has lost steam since then. The chart shows how CAMT has been stuck in the $70-90 region for the last couple of months. The stock retreated after the February 2024 high before rebounding once it got close to $70 on March 11. The stock then made its way back to $90 or so by March 26. So it has been sideways, basically. What is bothering Camtek at the moment CAMT has tripled in value in the past 12 months, but the stock is up just 9.4% YTD after closing at $74.68 on April 19. Not only did the stock lose 5.7% on April 19, but the stock has been weak all month. The decline in April coincided with an increase in hostilities in the Middle East, which is relevant to CAMT as a company based primarily in Israel. True, hostilities started last October, but the potential entry of Iran into a direct conflict with Israel weighed on the stock because Iran has a much greater ability to inflict damage to infrastructure. If this were to happen, CAMT stands to be affected. Still, it is the AI story that deserves most of the blame. AI was the main driver behind the rally, but AI has been shaken up, especially in recent days. A number of high-flying AI plays like Super Micro Computer (SMCI) have seen their stock take a beating due to concerns the AI boom is slowing down. Any perceived weakening of the AI bull thesis, whether justified or not, should be a concern to CAMT since it is the main reason why the stock has multiplied in value. For now, CAMT is still within the $70-90 region, and there does seem to be some support at $70 or so. This may limit further downside, provided support holds, of course. What caused Camtek to soar higher after staying moribund for quite a while To get an idea what the stock might do next, it is necessary to look at why the stock got to where it did in the first place. CAMT basically supplies metrology and process control tools for various applications, including high-performance computing and high-bandwidth memory or HBM in particular. HBM chips are positioned close to server GPUs to maximize performance. So when demand for GPUs, from Nvidia (NVDA) in particular, exploded, so too did demand for HBM. However, the HBM market was just a small part of the DRAM market and production was limited, with SK Hynix producing most of it. This resulted in a shortage, which meant DRAM manufacturers had to bring new production online to satisfy the increased demand for HBM. This is where CAMT enters the picture as a supplier of equipment to help manufacture HBM. CAMT thus became an AI play for all intents and purposes in the eyes of investors. Moreover, recent quarterly results point to an acceleration in growth, which helps support the thesis that AI is a growth driver. CAMT has yet to announce the date for its next report, but it is likely to come in May, and guidance calls for a 29.7% YoY increase in Q1 FY2024 revenue. Based on this, CAMT is estimated to post non-GAAP EPS of $0.58, up from $0.42 a year ago.           Q1 FY2024 (guidance) Q1 FY2023 YoY (midpoint)   Revenue $93-95M $72.46M 29.73%   Click to enlarge Source: CAMT In comparison, the table below shows how Q1 FY2024 guidance builds on the improvement in recent quarters. CAMT has also reported an increase in bookings, including for HBM. In a nutshell, the recent numbers are consistent with the thesis of a company on the rise due to AI.  (Unit: $1000, except EPS)  (GAAP) Q4 FY2023 Q3 FY2023 Q4 FY2022 QoQ YoY   Revenue 88,690 80,470 82,175 10.22% 7.93%   Gross margin 44.9% 48.5% 48.6% (190bps) (490bps)   Operating profit 17,219 19,065 20,461 (9.68%) (15.85%)   Net income 20,790 22,058 21,673 (5.75%) (4.07%)   EPS 0.42 0.46 0.45 (8.70%) (6.67%)   Weighted-average shares outstanding 49,149K 48,965K 48,332K 0.38% 1.69%   (Non-GAAP)             Revenue 88,690 80,470 82,175 10.22% 7.93%   Gross margin 49.2% 49.0% 49.0% 20bps 20bps   Operating profit 25,493 22,202 22,832 14.82% 11.66%   Net income 28,208 25,195 24,044 11.96% 17.32%   EPS 0.57 0.52 0.50 9.62% 14.00%   Click to enlarge Source: CAMT Camtek sees strong growth in FY2024 Nonetheless, it's worth pointing out that the improvement has come only recently. CAMT got off to a slow start in FY2023 and FY2023 was overall on the flattish side compared to FY2022, which was admittedly a very strong year for CAMT. It was a stronger second half that closed the gap for CAMT. The table below compares FY2023 to FY2022. CAMT finished FY2023 with cash, cash equivalents, short and long-term deposits and marketable securities of $448.6M, down from $517.1M in the preceding quarter. This decrease can be attributed to the pending acquisition of FRT, which is scheduled to be completed in FY2024 at the cost of $100M in cash.        (Unit: $1000, except EPS)  (GAAP) FY2023 FY2022 YoY   Revenue 315,375 320,909 (1.72%)   Gross margin 46.8% 49.8% (300bps)   Operating profit 65,412 81,498 (19.74%)   Net income 78,632 79,949 (1.65%)   EPS 1.61 1.66 (3.01%)   Weighted-average shares outstanding 48,863K 48,229K 1.31%   (Non-GAAP)         Revenue 315,375 320,909 (1.72%)   Gross margin 48.4% 50.2% (180bps)   Operating profit 83,343 92,021 (9.43%)   Net income 95,707 90,472 5.79%   EPS 1.96 1.88 4.26%   Click to enlarge Source: CAMT In addition to strong quarterly guidance, the outlook for the rest of FY2024 is upbeat. CAMT did not put out any numbers, but FY2024 is expected to be a record year. From the Q4 FY2023 earnings call: Regarding our assessment for 2024. In our last meeting, you heard us estimate that 2024 will be a record year in sales. Today, we are halfway through the first quarter, and based on our backlog and orders in pipeline, we feel even stronger that 2024 will indeed be a record year. However, it is too early to give accurate prediction about the expected growth in 2024.\" Source: CAMT earnings call The current record is FY2022 with revenue of $320.9M, so FY2024 will be at least this much. It may be too early to say, but revenue grew at a CAGR of about 21% from $156M in FY2020 to $315M in FY2023 and if we assume CAMT grows in line with the average for the last three years, especially in light of CAMT's recent comments and the strong order book, then this implies FY2024 revenue of roughly $396M. If earnings grows at a similar pace, then non-GAAP EPS becomes $2.47, although exchange rates may increase or decrease the final number. This would give CAMT a forward non-GAAP P/E ratio of 30.2x and a trailing P/E ratio of 38.1x, with the stock at $74.68. In comparison, the median in the sector is 23x and 21x respectively. In terms of sales, CAMT is valued at 8.5x sales on a forward basis and 10.7x on a trailing basis, with a market cap of $3.37B. The median is 2.7x and 2.8x respectively. Is the AI lift being overplayed? Still, while the rally is not without backing, as shown by the improvement in quarterly results, there is reason to question whether the supposed benefit from AI to CAMT is fully justified. Keep in mind, HBM is just one part of the HPC segment, the other being chiplets. According to CAMT, the HPC segment is forecast to account for about 30% of revenue in FY2024. HBM may have hogged all the attention, but the numbers from CAMT suggest most of the growth is not from HBM or AI for that matter. Furthermore, China was the biggest market for CAMT with a 47% share in FY2023 as shown in the table below.            FY2023 FY2022 FY2021 FY2020   China 149,510 141,959 147,651 66,428   Asia Pacific 67,773 63,455 45,571 49,966   Korea 47,425 43,256 31,709 21,161   United States 41,118 54,741 28,641 9,847   Europe 9,549 17,498 16,087 8,457     315,375 320,909 269,659 155,859   Click to enlarge Source: CAMT annual reports Yet, none of CAMT's growth in China was due to HBM, or HPC for that matter. No, so first of all, the HBM and Chiplet business, it's definitely not a Chinese business. And when you talk about it, it's related to the HBM manufacturers and primarily TSMC and Intel. These are the five players in this arena. So when we talk about this business, this is definitely business out of China. Whether there will be similar things in China, it's early to talk about it. When we talk about the business in China, I think the main growth driver there is the OSAT capacity that is being built there.\" The above suggests that while all the attention is focused on AI and HBM, most of the growth is not actually due to either. Could China slow down for Camtek? CAMT itself is optimistic demand in China will stay strong. Still, it's worth mentioning that the possibility of a slowdown in China should not be dismissed, especially in the long term. A number of other equipment suppliers have stated they believe their sales in China will go down. Among the reasons cited is the belief Chinese customers are stocking up and ordering more than they actually need. If this also holds true for CAMT, then this puts China's rapid growth in the last few years in a different light. Another reason cited was the emergence of local competitors in China. Keep in mind, there are reports a DRAM manufacturer in China has either started producing HBM or is close to doing so. So if CAMT has not supplied HBM-related equipment to China, then this implies China is using something other than what CAMT is providing. China has been good to CAMT, but the future looks uncertain in light of the above. How sustainable is the boom in HBM? There is no doubt HBM is currently in great demand. According to a recent Investor Presentation, HBM shipments are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 3,038K 12-inch wafers in 2023 to 6,350K in 2026. Yet, it is worth mentioning that HBM makes up a small part of the DRAM market. Global DRAM capacity, for instance, was roughly 1.7M 12-inch wafers per month at the start of 2024 in comparison. In addition, the current situation regarding HBM memory is unlikely to last into the future. The market was caught off guard by the sudden surge in demand for HBM, but there are no limits as to how much DRAM manufacturers can increase output of HBM, as long as resources are allocated to expanding production. The three leading DRAM manufacturers have already announced greatly increased production of HBM. Samsung, for instance, the leading DRAM manufacturer, intends to increase production by 2.5 times in 2024. With so much additional production set to enter the market in the coming years, I believe it is pretty much inevitable the shortage of HBM will evaporate in the future. In other words, the current HBM boom will pass over time in my view. Investor takeaways CAMT is likely to have a strong, record-breaking growth year in 2024 and there is a good chance this could continue in 2025. While output is being increased, demand for HBM is highly likely to remain in short supply in the short term. CAMT can therefore expect to receive strong orders for HBM-related equipment. However, as explained above, the impact of AI on CAMT is overstated. While the numbers have shown accelerated growth in recent quarters, packaging seems to be the real driver of growth at CAMT. According to CAMT's own numbers, HPC will make up 30% of FY2024 revenue and only part of it is due to HBM. There is reason to ask how long recent growth can continue. China is a question mark in multiple areas. While HBM is in short supply right now, this won't last. So too would be the tailwind that has greatly bid up the stock price in the last 12 months. Growth may not slow down immediately, and growth in the last three years or so has been impressive, but it could end faster than many realize. CAMT is not without its risks. CAMT is still heavily exposed to the Middle East, which is a volatile region. The bigger unknown though is whether AI will live up to its billing or not. The current AI boom relies on companies spending heavily on capex, but this cannot go on forever, especially if companies do not get a good return on their investment in AI. If the latter happens, spending will go down and that will find its way back to CAMT.  Bottom line, the stock has gone sideways in recent months. While strong guidance or FY2024 outlook could power the stock higher when CAMT reports in May, there are a number of potential headwinds out there that could drag the stock lower. If these risks are acceptable, long CAMT makes sense. 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