April 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 1% on Monday, as an increase in feedgas to the Freeport LNG export plant and a drop in output outweighed lower demand forecasts for next week and mild weather outlook.
Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 2.6 cents higher, or 1.5%, to $1.78 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:27 a.m. EDT.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a two-week high at 12.8 bcfd, as the amount of gas flowing to Freeport LNG climbs to 0.6 bcfd from 0.1 bcfd on Friday.
Freeport said in late March it expects Trains 1 and 2 to remain shut until May for inspections and repairs, while Train 3 was operating.
"Our perception of this market remains one in which downside price risk appears limited while we also concede that our suggested upside price possibilities may require several weeks," energy advisory Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 96.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.
LSEG forecasts gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 91.7 bcfd this week to 98.2 bcfd next week.
"The demand for natural gas is kind of on the low side because the weather is pretty mild, it's spring time, although that will change as we go into May and June," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration $(EIA)$ on Thursday said utilities injected 50 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to the storage during the week ended April 12.
U.S. gas production has dropped by around 10% so far in 2024 as several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy , delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.
EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy .
Meanwhile, European gas prices declined, after gains last week, on comfortable supply and rising wind output.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Apr 19 Apr 12 Apr 19 average
Forecast Actual Apr 19
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +64 +50 +77 +59
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,397 2,333 1,986 1,770
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 35.4% 36.4%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year
Last Year Average Average
2023 (2018-2022)
Henry Hub 2.20 2.66 3.60
1.75 1.75
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 13.49 13.04 14.39
9.43 9.95
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 12.34 14.39 14.31
10.50 10.88
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
93 119 132 161 165
U.S. GFS CDDs
58 52 16 34 31
U.S. GFS TDDs
151 171 148 195 196
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year (2019-2023)
Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.3 95.0
97.3 96.8 97.0
U.S. Imports from Canada 7.6 7.8
6.9 6.9 6.7
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
Total U.S. Supply 108.9 102.8
104.2 103.7 103.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 1.9 2.4
2.7 2.1 2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.0 5.4
6.4 6.5 6.3
U.S. LNG Exports 14.4 10.1
10.7 11.9 12.5
U.S. Commercial 7.4 8.4
6.7 7.9 6.0
U.S. Residential 9.6 11.8
8.0 10.4 6.8
U.S. Power Plant 25.6 22.7
27.9 28.9 29.8
U.S. Industrial 21.5 25.9
22.5 23.4 22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.9 5.0
4.8 4.8 4.8
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.3
1.9 2.1 1.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 71.2 76.2
71.9 77.6 71.8
Total U.S. Demand 93.5 94.1
91.7 98.2 92.9
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Week ended Apr 19 Apr 12 Apr 5 Mar 29
Apr 26
Wind 18 16 15 16
16
Solar 7 6 5 5
5
Hydro 7 7 7 8
7
Other 2 1 1 1
1
Petroleum 0 0 0 0
0
Natural Gas 35 37 38 38
38
Coal 13 13 13 13
13
Nuclear 19 20 20 19
20
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 1.59
1.43
Transco Z6 New York 1.38
1.46
PG&E Citygate 2.22
2.16
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.28
1.40
Chicago Citygate 1.41
1.37
Algonquin Citygate 1.53
1.47
SoCal Citygate 1.96
1.50
Waha Hub -0.69
-0.63
AECO 0.93
1.45
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 26.50
24.50
PJM West 25.50
23.25
Ercot North 24.50
15.50
Mid C 25.50
23.25
Palo Verde 1.50
-0.50
SP-15 -1.00
-5.50
(Reporting by Daksh Grover and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru)
((Daksh.Grover@thomsonreuters.com;))
((For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down. For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: For the U.S. power speed guide, see: To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps divided by four) NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub futures only ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps ))
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