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Late in December, MarketWatch published a list of favorite large-cap stocks for 2024 among analysts working for brokerage firms. Now it is time for a refresh, in part because shares of Nvidia, which topped the December list, were up 54% this year through Friday.
Below is a new list of analysts' favorite stocks among the S&P 500 SPX, followed by a deeper dive into data for this group, to look ahead at projected revenue and earnings results through 2025 and to look back at returns on invested capital over the past five years.
Through Friday, the S&P 500 had returned 4.6% for 2024, although the U.S. benchmark index had pulled back 5.4% so far in April. Among the index components, 57% had positive returns this year through Friday, with dividends reinvested.
Along with the broad index's decline this month, Nvidia's stock $(NVDA)$ has dropped 16%.
Here is how the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 have performed, along with forward price-to-earnings ratios and comparisons of those valuations with historic averages. The full index is at the bottom:
One theme among market bears is that the stocks are trading high relative to average price-to-earnings valuations. The forward price-to-earnings ratios are based on rolling weighted consensus earnings-per-share estimates among analysts polled by FactSet.
Current forward P/E ratios are compared with historic averages, and you can see on the table that six sectors of the S&P 500 are trading below their five-year average levels, with the consumer discretionary sector cheapest by this measure. Five of the sectors trade below their 10-year averages, and only two - energy and real estate - trade below their 15-year averages. Energy is cheapest when comparing current P/E with the 10-year and 15-year averages.
The new list of analysts' favorite stocks in the S&P 500
Analysts who work for brokerage firms (known as sell-side analysts) typically set 12-month price targets for stocks. For this screen, we began with the S&P 500 and narrowed the list to 497 companies covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet. We narrowed further to the 80 with at least 75% buy or equivalent ratings. That is down from 92 when we prepared the previous list in December.
Among these 80 companies, here are the 20 with the most upside potential for the next 12 months implied by consensus price targets:
Nvidia remains on the list. However, the 12-month implied upside for the stock, based on the consensus price target, is "only" 30%, pushing it down to 18th on the new list.
Looking ahead — expected growth rates for revenue and profit
Leaving the list of analysts’ 20 favorite stocks among the S&P 500 in the same order, here are projected compound annual growth rates for sales and earnings per share from 2023 through 2025. The numbers are based on calendar-year consensus estimates, adjusted if necessary by FactSet for companies whose fiscal years don’t match the calendar.
For comparison, the weighted two-year CAGR estimates for the S&P 500 are 5.3% for sales and 12.4% for EPS.
One-time events can affect earnings results. This is one reason you should do your own research to form your own opinion about how well a company has been doing and how likely it is to remain competitive over coming years, before investing into an individual stock.
Carnival Corp. CCL has been estimated to have broken even for calendar 2023, with EPS increasing to $1.05 in 2024 and $1.46 in 2025, so there is no expected EPS CAGR on the list.
For Aptiv PLC APTV, the two-year projected CAGR is negative. But the company said its reported EPS of $10.39 for 2023 would be reduced to $4.86 if special items were excluded. The consensus EPS estimate for Apriv’s 2024 EPS is $5.74. With a consensus 2025 EPS estimate of $7.16, the expected two-year CAGR would be 21.4% from the adjusted EPS of $4.86 for 2023.
Looking back — ROIC and total returns
One way to look for quality in the stock market is to consider how well management teams have allocated investors’ capital. According to FactSet, a company’s return on invested capital, or ROIC, is its profit divided by the sum of the carrying value of its common stock, preferred stock, long-term debt and capitalized lease obligations. FactSet’s quarterly ROIC calculations are actually a 12-month look back. For five-year average ROIC, we looked at the numbers for the most recent quarter, then four quarters previous, and so on, to average the five most recent available four-quarter periods.
ROIC is an annualized figure that sheds light on a management team’s ability to make the most efficient use of the money invested to fund its business. It isn’t a perfect tool to measure performance, in part because different industries are naturally more capital-intensive than others.
Keep in mind that the carrying value of a company’s stock may be much lower than its current market capitalization. The company may have issued most of its shares many years ago at a price much lower than today’s. If a company has issued a relatively large amount of newer shares recently, or at high prices, its ROIC will be lower. If a company has low debt, its ROIC is higher. If a company is being forced to increase borrowings, especially as interest rates are rising, its ROIC will go down.
Since companies’ fiscal quarters don’t necessarily match the calendar, announcements of preliminary quarterly results may not include enough data for FactSet to calculate ROIC immediately. The ROIC for that quarter will become available when the company files its quarterly 10-Q report or annual 10-K report with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
So for this group of 20 companies, we looked back at either 16 or 17 quarters to calculate five-year average ROIC:
Nvidia has had the highest five-year average ROIC on the list and has had the highest five-year total return of 1,547% for its shares, through Friday’s close.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. has ranked second for ROIC and second by five-year return, which has been 430%.
It is interesting that among the entire group of 20 companies, only five have outperformed the S&P 500 for five years through Friday, including Nvidia, AMD, First Solar Inc. FSLR, News Corp NWSA and Insulet Corp. PODD.
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