Wake Up REIT Investors, It's Time To Drink The 'Kool-Aid'

seekingalpha04-26

Who likes Kool-Aid?I know I do.But I'm what you would call the Mr. Kool-Aid REIT Man! stphillips I know what some people are saying about me – both to my online “face” in the comments and behind my ...

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  stphillips I know what some people are saying about me – both to my online “face” in the comments and behind my ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4686377-wake-up-reit-investors-its-time-to-drink-the-kool-aid\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4588","symbol_name":"碎股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4686377-wake-up-reit-investors-its-time-to-drink-the-kool-aid","article_id":"2430227645","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/175519590/image_175519590.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2430227645","pubTimestamp":1714129200,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"I know I do.But I'm what you would call the Mr. Kool-Aid REIT Man!stphillips I know what some people are saying about me – both to my online “face” in the comments and behind my back. While the statements vary in vocabulary choices, length, tone, and intent…There’s more to consider than first meets the eye. Don’t Want to Hear It From Me?","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4084":"特种房地产投资信托","BK4234":"特殊用途房地产信托","BK4231":"零售房地产信托","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","CZR.AU":"CZR Resources Ltd","MAA":"MAA房产信托","CFA.SI":"NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT","BK7129":"钢铁","CFA":"VictoryShares US 500 Volatility Wtd ETF","REIT":"ALPS Active REIT ETF","BK4215":"住宅房地产投资信托","O":"Realty Income Corp","ISBC":"投资者银行","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4211":"区域性银行","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4150":"赌场与赌博","BK4080":"零售业房地产投资信托","VNQ":"不动产信托指数ETF-Vanguard","VICI":"Vici Properties","CZR":"凯撒娱乐"},"translate_title":"唤醒房地产投资信托基金投资者，是时候喝“库尔援助”了","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"VNQ":1,"VICI":1,"REIT":1,"O":1,"MAA":1,"ISBC":1,"CZR.AU":1,"CZR":1,"CFA.SI":1,"CFA":0.9},"content_text":"Who likes Kool-Aid?I know I do.But I'm what you would call the Mr. Kool-Aid REIT Man!   stphillips I know what some people are saying about me – both to my online “face” in the comments and behind my back. While the statements vary in vocabulary choices, length, tone, and intent… I think I can sum them up as:  He’s been drinking the commercial real estate and/or real estate investment trust (\"REIT\") Kool-Aid for too long. He’s trying to get us to drink the commercial real estate and/or REIT Kool-Aid. Both at the same time.  All are wrong. But I do understand the accusations when REITs don’t look good at first glance. While you can select so many individual stocks to show as much, here’s the S&P 500 compared to the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ), a suitable stand-in for industry norms:   Yahoo Finance That lighter blue line, for the record, is the S&P 500 (SP500). The darker blue line is VNQ. Only a true, devoted Kool-Aid drinker could claim that REIT share prices are experiencing a roaring 2024 so far. So, since I do not fit that description, I can and will easily say otherwise. There was some hope last month that REITs were gaining back good trading vibes. But this month’s Federal Reserve announcement brought that short-term game to an end. And if you’re a short-term-minded trader, that’s all you need to know. Otherwise… There’s more to consider than first meets the eye. Don’t Want to Hear It From Me? How About Nareit! I don’t mean to beat a dead horse with Kool-Aid. If you’re one of my regular readers, you’ve probably heard me say all this before. Repeatedly. Take my April 21 article for my Investing Group, “7 Monthly Paying REITs to Buy.” In it, I wrote how:  “… REITs have felt their fair (and unfair) share of [the interest rate drama] pain. “… investors tend to shed their real estate enthusiasm in [elevated rate] conditions because these ventures often come with a lot of leverage. So when rates increase, refinancing that debt becomes more costly. “I get that. “And, again, I’m not making any more bets about rate cuts. “Yet that doesn’t change that, as I’ve said so many times this year, so many REITs are actually very well placed with solid balance sheets. “In which case, their share prices should recover. And they shouldn’t have any problem continuing to keep their dividend expectations.”  I could cite previous articles about that, too. But let’s go right to one of the greatest resources the REIT world has ever seen. Nareit published a piece on April 14 titled “No Fed Cuts, Still No Problem: Disciplined Balance Sheets Insulate REITs From Higher Rates.” It includes this paragraph:  “A lack of Fed rate cuts… are still not expected to pose a problem for U.S. public equity REITs. Fourth quarter 2023 data from the Nareit Total REIT Industry Tracker Series® (T-Tracker) show that, on average, REITs have maintained long-term, well-structured balance sheets with low leverage ratios, predominantly utilizing unsecured debt and fixed interest rates. With their disciplined balance sheets, REITs may not be immune from higher interest rates, but they are reasonably well-insulated from them.”  This is why I keep saying what I’m saying. It’s not Kool-Aid-based at all, no matter what my critics say. A Healthy Approach to REIT Investing Look, Kool-Aid can taste good. I was a kid. I enjoyed it. And I probably had it too many more times as an adult, considering that I have five kiddos. Plus, it comes in I don’t know how many flavors. There’s something for every (unsophisticated) palate. An “Ultimate Bundle” available on Amazon includes:  Black cherry Green apple Sharkleberry Fin (fruit punch, I believe) Lemonade Blue raspberry lemonade Peach mango Cherry Mixed berry Orange Grape.  Problem is, each one of them is artificially flavored with tons of sugar. We’re talking about 15–30 grams of sugar per packet. Admittedly, each pouch is supposed to be mixed with two quarts of water. So a one-cup serving will only contain 1.875-3.75 grams of sugar. But still. The American Heart Association recommends that men have a total of 36 grams of added sugar per day. Women are only supposed to have 25. Thus, kiddos should have even less. Especially when all that added sugar adds up, since there’s added sugar in almost everything. Frankly, I’m a little too health conscience these days to promote such practices. In the same way, I’m a little too safety conscience with my money after drinking “financial Kool-Aid” back when I was younger and more foolish – the kind that said the real estate boom was never going to stop. But being safety conscience doesn’t mean sitting huddled in a bubble far from every harm. It means taking calculated risks. It means growing skeptical when stock prices run too far on unchecked enthusiasm. And it means growing “greedy” about solid stocks with long-term appeal when they’ve run into short-term disfavor. If you want to call that drinking the Kool-Aid, then fine. I won’t argue anymore. Please just pour me another glass.  Realty Income Corporation (O) Realty Income is a real estate investment trust that was formed in 1969 and currently has a market cap of approximately $45.7 billion. At the end of 2023, the company’s portfolio totaled 272.1 million SF and consisted of 13,458 commercial properties located in the U.S. and Europe. The company focuses on single-tenant, freestanding commercial properties that are leased on a triple-net basis. This type of lease makes the tenant responsible for property-level expenses such as taxes, insurance, and maintenance. The S&P 500 company generates its rental revenue under long-term lease agreements, which provides earnings visibility and stable cash flows that support the company’s growing monthly dividend. Realty Income is a Dividend Aristocrat that has increased its dividend for 29 consecutive years at a 4.3% compound annual growth rate (“CAGR”). In March, the company announced its latest dividend increase, which marked its 124th increase since the company’s public listing in 1994.   O - IR Realty Income’s portfolio consists of various industries that primarily includes retail, industrial, and gaming, but also includes smaller categories such as agriculture and data centers. At the end of 2023, retail made up 81.8% of its portfolio, followed by industrial and gaming which made up 12.7% and 3.9% respectively. The company closed on its acquisition of Spirit Realty in January, which increased its property count to 15,450 and is expected to increase its industrial exposure to around ~15%. Realty Income’s properties are leased to 1,326 tenants operating across 86 industries. The company targets defensive industries that are resistant to recession and e-commerce. Some of its largest industries include grocery stores, convenience stores, dollar stores, and home improvement stores. Some of the company’s largest and most prominent tenants include Dollar General, Walgreens, 7-Eleven, and FedEx. The company’s largest tenant is Dollar General, which accounts for 3.8% of its annual rent. The company’s portfolio is geographically diversified with properties in all 50 states, the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Germany and France. Its largest region is the U.K. which made up 12.6% of its 2023 rent, followed by Texas and California which made up 9.6% and 5.2% respectively. At the end of 2023, the company reported a portfolio occupancy of 98.6% and a weighted average lease term (“WALT”) of 9.8 years.   O - IR Realty Income is the largest net lease REIT, with a market cap approaching $50 billion. One of its main competitive advantages is its size, scale, and access to low-cost capital. The sheer size of its portfolio diversifies it better than most, enabling the company to generate growth through multiple economic cycles. O has generated positive adjusted funds from operations (“AFFO”) growth in 27 out of the last 28 years, and has delivered a 5% AFFO median growth rate since 1996. Even through the pandemic, the company was able to grow its AFFO per share by 2.1% compared to its retail net lease peers that had a median AFFO growth rate of negative -5.2% that same year. Realty Income was 1 of 4 retail net lease REITs and 1 of 7 S&P 500 REITs that achieved positive earnings growth in 2020.   O - IR Over the past decade, the company has delivered positive AFFO per share growth and has increased its dividend each year. Since 2014 the company has had an average AFFO growth rate of 4.96% and an average dividend growth rate of 3.92%. The dividend was well-covered in 2023 with an AFFO payout ratio of 76.27% and analysts expect AFFO per share growth of 4% in 2024 and then 3% the following year.   TIKR.com Realty Income's business model is based on providing stable and growing cash flows from its long-term leases and diversified tenant base. The company’s cash flow and dividend are supported by its investment-grade balance sheet (A- credit rating) and solid debt metrics. The company has a net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDAre of 5.5x, a long-term debt to capital ratio of 36.90%, and a fixed charge coverage ratio of 4.7x. The company’s debt is 94% fixed rate and is well-staggered with a weighted average term to maturity of 6.7 years.   O - IR Over its 55-year operating history, Realty Income has displayed a proven and resilient business model that can withstand economic downturns and market disruptions. Through multiple recessions, wars, and even a black swan pandemic, the company has maintained high occupancy and rent collection rates, demonstrating the essential nature of its real estate and the quality of its tenants. The company’s stock pays a 5.81% dividend yield and trades at a P/AFFO ratio of 13.09x, compared to its 10-year historical average of 18.41x. We rate Realty Income a Buy.   FAST Graphs VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) VICI is a gaming REIT that was formed in 2017 as a spin-off from Caesars Entertainment (CZR) as part of CZR’s plan to emerge from bankruptcy. As part of the reorganization, VICI acquired multiple properties from CZR (including the Caesars Palace in Las Vegas) and leased the properties back to Caesars under long-term, triple-net lease agreements. Since that time, VICI has expanded its portfolio at a rapid clip through acquisitions and partnerships with other gaming operators such as MGM Resorts and Hard Rock International. The company now has a 127 million SF portfolio made up of top-tier gaming, hospitality, and entertainment destinations. In addition to Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, VICI owns multiple trophy properties along the Las Vegas Strip, including MGM Grand and the Venetian Resort. In total, the company owns 93 experiential assets consisting of 54 gaming properties and 39 experiential, non-gaming properties which primarily consist of bowling alleys it acquired from Bowlero in 2023. The company’s core-gaming properties have approximately 4.2 million SF of gaming space and feature ~60,300 hotel rooms and around 500 restaurants, bars, sportsbooks, and nightclubs that are occupied by leading gaming, entertainment, and hospitality operators. As of the company’s most recent update, its portfolio was 100% occupied and had a WALT of 41.6 years when including all tenant extension options.   VICI - IR VICI’s leases are all long-term, triple-net leases that include annual contractual escalation with inflation protection. Almost half of its rent roll currently includes CPI-linked escalation, and the company expects that to increase to 96% over the long term. VICI has high tenant concentration with a total of 13 tenants. Moreover, the company is especially concentrated in its top 2 tenants (Caesars & MGM) which combined make up 75% of VICI’s annual rent. While I typically prefer more tenant diversification, not many operators are licensed to manage a casino, given the regulatory requirements. In a specialized industry that is highly regulated, it is almost unavoidable to have a concentrated tenant base. Another example would be the cannabis industry. While the gaming regulatory environment creates high-barriers-to-entry and limits the pool of potential operators / tenants, it also limits gaming operators ability to relocate. VICI’s properties are mission-critical to its tenants. I know “mission-critical” is often used, but can you imagine Caesars Entertainment running its operations without Caesars Palace on the Las Vegas Strip? The iconic trophy properties in VICI’s portfolio simply cannot be duplicated, which is likely why it has been able to achieve a 100% occupancy rate and has had 100% rent collection since formation.   VICI - IR VICI has a competitive advantage in the gaming and hospitality sector, as its portfolio includes some of the most iconic and irreplaceable properties in the industry. Some of the gaming REIT’s trophy assets on the Las Vegas Strip include Excalibur, New York-New York, Luxor, Harrah’s, and Mirage.   VICI - IR Since the company’s formation, it has delivered solid growth. Since 2019 it has had a blended average AFFO growth rate of 6.69% and an average dividend growth rate of 10.11%. The company has increased its AFFO and dividend per share each year while maintaining a conservative dividend payout ratio. In 2023, the company had an AFFO payout ratio of 74.88% and analysts expect AFFO per share to increase by 5% in 2024, and then by 4% the following year, further insulating the company’s dividend.   TIKR.com VICI has an investment-grade balance sheet with a BBB- credit rating from S&P Global. The company has solid debt metrics including a net leverage ratio (net debt / adj EBITDA) of 5.5x, a long-term debt to capital ratio of 38.51%, and an EBITDA to interest expense ratio of 4.10x. The gaming REITs debt is 99% fixed rate and 83% unsecured and is well-staggered with a weighted average term to maturity of 5.9 years. Plus, at the end of 2023 the company had ~$3.2 billion in liquidity.   VICI - IR VICI is a well-positioned gaming REIT that benefits from its portfolio of irreplaceable trophy properties and its partnerships with leading operators. The company has a strong balance sheet with an investment-grade credit rating and plenty of liquidity to pursue growth opportunities. The company pays an attractive dividend yield of 5.95% and its stock currently trades at a P/AFFO of 12.80x, compared to its normal AFFO multiple of 15.93x. We rate VICI Properties a Buy.   FAST Graphs  Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA)  MAA is an apartment REIT that owns and operates multifamily properties in the Southeast, Southwest, and Mid-Atlantic regions of the country. The company’s portfolio consists of 296 multifamily communities containing 100,894 apartment homes in 16 states and the District of Columbia. The company specializes in the development, acquisition, and management of apartment communities and has a primary focus on high-growth Sunbelt markets such as Atlanta, Dallas, Nashville, and Houston. The company’s largest market is Atlanta, which made up 12.7% of its 4Q-23 Same Store net operating income (“NOI”). Its next two largest markets are Dallas and Tampa, which made up 9.6% and 7.2% of the company’s 4Q-23 NOI respectively. MAA’s portfolio includes a mix of garden-style, mid-rise, and high-rise apartments that offer various amenities and floor plans to attract a range of tenants. Approximately 63% of the company’s units are garden-style apartments, which are low-rise buildings with open-air access and are typically 3 stories or fewer. 33% of its units are mid-rise buildings that range from 4 to 9 stories and typically have enclosed corridors, and 4% are high-rise buildings that generally offer premium amenities and are in high-end locations. Additionally, MAA offers a range of options and price points with a portfolio that is diversified by market and property class. 70% of its properties are in large markets, while 30% are in mid-tier markets. By property class, the majority of its portfolio is made up of Class A- / B+ properties at 51%, followed by Class A+ / A and Class B / B- at 38% and 11% respectively. During 4Q '23 the company reported a same store average daily physical occupancy of 95.5%.   MAA - IR Mid-America has an excellent dividend track record, with no suspensions or cuts since the company’s public listing. In total, the company has paid 120 consecutive quarterly dividends since its initial public offering in 1994.   MAA - IR Since 2014 MAA has had an average AFFO growth rate of 5.52% and an average dividend growth rate of 7.37%. The company increased its dividend each year over the past decade and increased its dividend by almost 20% in 2023. MAA has maintained a conservative AFFO payout ratio as well, with the ratio staying under 70% since 2014. In 2023, the company had an AFFO payout ratio of 67.96% which leaves plenty of leeway should any potential downturn occur.   TIKR.com MAA has an investment-grade balance sheet with an A- credit rating from S&P Global. The apartment REIT has excellent debt metrics including a net debt to adjusted EBITDAre of 3.6x, a long-term debt to capital ratio of 34.39%, and a debt service coverage ratio of 7.8x. The company’s debt is 89.1% fixed rate with an average interest rate of 3.6% and is well-staggered with a weighted average term to maturity of 6.8 years.   MAA - IR MAA benefits from its strong focus on Sunbelt markets, as it can capture the demand from migration and relocation trends. Sunbelt markets have positive demographic and economic trends including job creation, income and population growth, and MAA’s properties are well-positioned to benefit from these trends. MAA’s stock pays a 4.66% dividend yield and is currently trading at a blended P/AFFO of 15.46x, compared to its 10-year average AFFO multiple of 19.18x. We rate Mid-America Apartment Communities a Strong Buy.   FAST Graphs So, Who's Drinking the Kool-Aid? Now that I've got your undivided attention... Who is drinking the REIT Kool-Aid? I know I am...  But I'm what you would call the Mr. Kool-Aid REIT Man!","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2430227645"}