Is the US equity market overvalued?

LiveWire04-26

It's been an exceptional 12 months for US equity markets, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ soaring 22% and 35%. We've seen investors crowd into AI mega-cap darlings like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), ...

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During the Dot-com era, it traded at 25 times.In this episode of The Pitch, Wilsons Advisory's David Cassidyanswers these questions and more, and shares why he would still be buying Microsoft and Google today.David Cassidy:Well, that's the debate. You're looking at 21 times on a one-year forward PE against a short-term average of 19 times over the last five years. So, that's giving the US market the benefit of the doubt in terms of its really about tech n","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU0128525929.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4514":"搜索引擎","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","GB00B4QBRK32.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","GB00B4LPDJ14.GBP":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (GBP) ACC","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0494093205.USD":"贝莱德ESG灵活多元资产A2 USD-H","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","MSFT":"微软","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4538":"云计算","BK4543":"AI","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","LU1814569148.SGD":"WELLINGTON GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"D\" (SGDHDG) ACC","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","GOOG":"谷歌","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0354030511.USD":"ALLSPRING  U.S. LARGE CAP GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","GOOGL":"谷歌A","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC"},"translate_title":"美国股市是否被高估？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1,"MSFT":1,"GOOGL":1,".IXIC":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6},"content_text":"It's been an exceptional 12 months for US equity markets, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ soaring 22% and 35%.\nWe've seen investors crowd into AI mega-cap darlings like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), with these stocks trading on forward PEs of 35.75, 30.99 and 23.20 times respectively - which may be reasonable, given the earnings growth expectations for these companies. \nDespite some market participants drawing parallels between today's market froth and that of the 2000s tech boom and bust, the US market is trading on a PE of 21 times (compared to its historical average of 19 times). During the Dot-com era, it traded at 25 times. \nSo is the US market overvalued? Or should we be paying up for the future possibilities (and profits) AI may bring? \nIn this episode of The Pitch, Wilsons Advisory's David Cassidy answers these questions and more, and shares why he would still be buying Microsoft and Google today. \nNote: This video was filmed on Tuesday 9 April 2024. You can watch the video or read an edited transcript below. \n\n\n\nEdited Transcript \n\nAlly Selby: Hello and welcome to Livewire Market's The Pitch. I'm Ally Selby. I've got a few quick stats for you. The S&P 500 has lifted 27% over the past 12 months. The Nasdaq has soared 39%. So, is the US overvalued? To find out, we're joined by Wilson Advisory's, Head of Investment Strategy, David Cassidy. Thank you so much for joining us, David.\nLet's get straight into it...\nThe current S&P 500 10-year PE Ratio or CAPE is 33.7 - that's 66.3% above the market average. In your view, is the US market overvalued?\n\nDavid Cassidy: Good question. The first thing I'd say, Ally, is I'm a little bit sceptical of the CAPE Ratio, I think some people know that as the Schiller PE, which is a series that has a very long history. So I think this goes back to 1870, but sometimes, you can have too much data and I really think comparing the US PE at the moment to what it was in 1870 or even 1970 is a little bit dangerous. So while I think the US market is probably a little bit overvalued, I don't think it's as overvalued as, perhaps, the CAPE or Schiller PE is suggesting, because the US market is just so different to what it was back 50, or 100 years ago or even 20 years ago.What measures indicate that it could be overvalued today?\nDavid Cassidy: Well, even on a more straightforward PE, either the last 12 months of earnings or the next 12 months, which is a little bit simpler than a CAPE Ratio, which looks at the last 10 years, you still get the same message, some over-valuation there.Despite earnings growing over that period?\nDavid Cassidy: Well, that's the debate. You're looking at 21 times on a one-year forward PE against a short-term average of 19 times over the last five years. So, that's giving the US market the benefit of the doubt in terms of its really about tech now and that's been the case for at least five years. So even on that basis, it looks maybe 10% overvalued. You could make an argument that there's so much growth coming, courtesy of the tech sector around AI, that you should pay that multiple (21 times). So it's not impossible that the US market is not overvalued, but my inclination is to pay a little bit of attention to the long-run averages on it. Basically, the market's probably a little bit overcooked on the upside at the moment.Some experts argue that there are some parallels between now and the 2000s tech boom and bust, would you agree?\nDavid Cassidy: I think there are some similarities and some differences. Clearly, tech has been leading the market. I think the market's not superficially as overvalued on the straight PE. The PE got to 25 times in 2000 at the top, it's at 21 now, so simplistically, we're not quite there. The PEs of the tech sector itself are not as high. I think there was a lot of hope and expectation in 2000. There wasn't a lot of earnings around at the time. So you had, in some cases, infinite PEs. This time around, there are a lot of earnings backing these stocks, like NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and the like. So yes, there's a fair bit of exuberance around tech, and there's a lot of expectation, but I don't think there's as much froth and bubble now as there was back in 2000, from my perspective. So I am a little bit cautious, but nowhere near as cautious as I was back in 2000.Could we see a correction over the next few months, a little drawback, or could this be the start of a new bull market?\nDavid Cassidy: It's possible it could be both. I think we're probably overdue for some sort of correction. I've thought that for a while. Possibly, the bond market could be the catalyst for some sort of pullback. But I'm more in the camp that if we see a correction, it's more in the 5% to 10% area, not the 20% or indeed 50% we saw back in 2000/2001. So I am more in the camp of correction within an uptrend, rather than lapsing into a bear market.Investors are currently crowded into artificial intelligence beneficiaries, like NVIDIA, Microsoft and Google. If investors didn't have positions in these businesses today, would you recommend they buy them or should they be searching for value elsewhere?\nDavid Cassidy: I think a little bit of both, Ally. I think in the case of NVIDIA, it's been very, very strong over the last 12 months with good reason, in terms of the earnings delivery that it's achieved. But I think we'd put that in the hold category at the moment, not necessarily a sell. In the case of Microsoft and particularly Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), we still think there's an ability to accumulate or buy those stocks. We still think the valuations there are quite reasonable when you look at the long-term growth. So we're happily accumulating exposures in those. But I think investors should be looking beyond just the tech space, in terms of their investment portfolio, to other less strongly performed areas of the market, so we're doing a little bit of both at the moment.\n\nAlly Selby: Well thank you so much for your time today, David. It was a pleasure to have you on The Pitch.\nDavid Cassidy: Thank you.\n\nAlly Selby: If you enjoyed that too, don't forget to subscribe to Livewire's YouTube channel, we're adding so much great content just like this, every single week.\nLearn more\nWilsons Advisory think differently and delves deeper to uncover a broad range of interesting investment opportunities for their clients. To read more of our latest research, visit our Research and Insights.\n\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? 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