V.F. Corporation Is A Strong Buy: This Bargain Stock Is My Top Turnaround For 2024

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V.F. Corporation has experienced significant underperformance, resulting in its removal from the S&P 500 Index and a loss of over $34 billion in shareholder value.The company is undergoing a strategic...

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Corporation has experienced significant underperformance, resulting in its removal from the S&P 500 Index and a loss of over $34 billion in shareholder value.The company is undergoing a strategic...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4686642-vf-corporation-strong-buy-bargain-stock-my-top-turnaround-for-2024\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>V.F. 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Corporation Is A Strong Buy: This Bargain Stock Is My Top Turnaround For 2024\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-26 21:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4686642-vf-corporation-strong-buy-bargain-stock-my-top-turnaround-for-2024><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>V.F. Corporation has experienced significant underperformance, resulting in its removal from the S&P 500 Index and a loss of over $34 billion in shareholder value.The company is undergoing a strategic...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4686642-vf-corporation-strong-buy-bargain-stock-my-top-turnaround-for-2024\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"MED","symbol_name":"快验保","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4686642-vf-corporation-strong-buy-bargain-stock-my-top-turnaround-for-2024","article_id":"2430334277","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1074219044/image_1074219044.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2430334277","pubTimestamp":1714138281,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"V.F. 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Corporation has experienced significant underperformance, resulting in its removal from the S&P 500 Index and a loss of over $34 billion in shareholder value.The company is undergoing a strategic turnaround under new CEO Bracken Darrell, who has a successful track record of turnarounds in previous roles.Activist investor Engaged Capital is involved in the company and has outlined key strategies for the turnaround, including cost reductions, restoring brand autonomy, addressing the capital structure, and governance/board changes.   BalkansCatThesis After multiple years of underperformance, V.F. Corporation (NYSE:VFC) was recently dropped from the S&P 500 Index. After reaching all-time highs of $100.25 in 2020, shares have since plummeted by over 87%, culminating to a loss of over $34B in shareholder value. A mix of poor managerial decisions, ill-timed acquisitions at high multiples, and a decline in brand strength drove these results. With pessimism at all-time highs, many have written VFC off for dead. However, VFC is a battle-tested company with a 125-year history of weathering economic cycles. With a new CEO, Bracken Darrell, and a clear strategic turnaround plan, signs of a recovery are beginning to emerge. Let’s take a deep dive into the current situation at V.F. Corporation and determine how cheap this valuation really is. Brief Company Overview While the name V.F. Corporation may not ring a bell, nearly every reader is likely familiar with the iconic brands under the umbrella. Some of these legendary brands include The North Face, Vans, Timberland, Supreme, and Dickies. VFC public filingsOriginally founded in 1899 as a glove and mitten manufacturer, VFC has evolved into a global powerhouse in the apparel, footwear, and accessories sector. With over 30,000 employees worldwide and thousands of retail stores, VFC has become an industry leader in the outdoor, active, and workwear product lines. Management and Insider Transactions If there is one bright spot at VFC, it would undoubtedly be newly appointed CEO Bracken Darrell. Darrell has a proven track record of successful turnarounds; this time, it appears no different. During his time at Old Spice, Darrell was able to triple the market share, establishing the market share leader title they hold today. During the previous 11 years, Darrell led the turnaround at Logitech, expanding into over 20 product categories, doubling revenues, and providing shareholders with a 10x return. Fast forward to today, Darrell has taken the helm of VFC, which is facing declining sales and profitability. Darrell has noted the striking parallels between VFC's challenges and those he faced in his previous roles. In the Q3 earnings release, Darrell highlighted his optimism: \"As we approach the end of this fiscal year, my confidence in VF's future is rising.\" Simply put, this is a jockey that I would like to bet on. Bracken Darrell recently put his money where his mouth was, purchasing 65,360 shares of VFC worth a little over $1M. With an annual base salary of $1.3M, this is no small purchase. Darrell is joined by longtime director Richard Carucci, who bought 40,000 shares ($763,600) this past August and another 20,000 ($310,600) in February. NasdaqThis equates to 936,042 shares purchased in the last 12 months versus the 50,689 shares sold. As Peter Lynch has famously said, “Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise.” Since taking the helm, Darrell has made meaningful changes to his executive team. This past quarter, VFC announced that longtime CFO Matt Puckett would leave the company after a 23-year tenure. In addition, VFC announced that Kevin Bailey, longtime global brand president at Vans, will be stepping down. While VFC searches for a new brand president, Darrell will take an \"active role\" at Vans. VFC has also enhanced its board of directors since Darrell arrived, adding Caroline Brown and Trevor Edwards. Brown brings over 30 years of experience in the apparel and fashion sector as the former CEO of Donna Karan and DKNY. Edwards served as a former president at NKE from 2013 to 2018 and was widely viewed as the successor for the Nike CEO spot. After years of underperformance, these are the much-needed changes that shareholders should embrace. Engaged Capital VFC's recent challenges have drawn attention from prominent activists, notably Glenn Welling of Engaged Capital. Well known for their extensive experience in turnaround investments, Engaged Capital has been involved with companies such as Shake Shack (SHAK) and Medifast (MED). Engaged Capital has already gained the support of Kelly Barbey, a founding family member still holding a 15% stake in VFC. VFC has become one of Wellings' most significant holdings, carrying a roughly 15% weight in the portfolio valued at $100.4M. With an average cost basis of $18.38, I am eager to see if Welling has taken advantage of the recent price weakness in the coming 13F filing. According to Engaged Capital, one of the first downfalls of VFC was the appointment of Steve Rendle as CEO (Slide 12). A significant contributing factor to VFC's success over the years was its distinct business model. VFC leaned on a \"hands-off approach that allowed brands to retain autonomy\" over critical aspects such as product innovation and market strategies. Under Rendle's leadership, VFC shifted headquarters from Greensboro, NC, to Denver. This costly shift resulted in a surge in the corporate cost structure and led to significant employee turnover, cited by Engaged. Rather than allow its iconic brands to retain autonomy, this move consolidated operations to what Engaged Capital calls the corporate death star (Slide 13). According to a former VFC executive, \"Brands were reorganized to serve the center rather than the center serving the brands.\" Engaged Capital says that this led to core brands such as The North Face and Vans being starved of resources diverted to corporate spending and underperforming brands, highlighted by the 34% increase in total corporate expenses during Rendle's tenure (Slide 13 & 16). Engaged Capital also pointed to the poorly timed 2020 Supreme acquisition, $2.1B at ~15x EBITDA, as a highly risky move that significantly lowered financial flexibility (Slide 15) Engaged Capital views the appointment of Bracken Darrell as CEO as a \"key turning point\" in the VFC story. In addition to this, they point to 4 key strategies to accelerate the VFC turnaround:  Unwind Duplicate Costs Restore Brand Autonomy Address the capital structure Governance/Board Changes  Starting with duplicate costs, Engaged Capital \"sees a clear path to >$300M in immediate cost reductions.\" Most of these reductions come from selling non-core assets, corporate restructuring, and reduced discretionary spending. Arguably, the most important of these points is restoring brand autonomy. This move frees brand presidents from corporate bureaucracy and allows them to focus on faster innovation and marketing, a key pivot that brings VFC back to its roots. Engaged Capital believes it is essential for management to commit to no further acquisitions, a strategic portfolio review, and to use all excess cash to pay down debt. With a three-year price target of $46, Engaged Capital remains highly constructive on the VFC turnaround. I view this activist involvement as a massive positive catalyst for the VFC turnaround story, holding management accountable and driving key strategic initiatives to unlock shareholder value. Q3 FY2024 Overview This past quarter was pretty terrible for VFC. Revenues were down 16% to $3.0B with adjusted earnings per share of $.57, both missing analyst expectations by a significant margin.  VFC Public FilingsWhile The North Face has been a bright spot over the years for VFC, this brand has even experienced an 11% decline in revenues. Management did point out the relatively warm weather for the quarter, with temperatures 3 to 4 degrees higher than average. However, temperatures returned to their colder averages in January, and The North Face returned to growth in all regions. Vans witnessed a staggering 29% decline in revenue, continuing the trend of weakening demand and consumer interest. While these results were slightly worse due to the “clean up process” and reset of channels, there is no denying that Vans is struggling. The trend carried over to Timberland and Dickies, with 22% and 17% declines, respectively. Given that the Americas region fuels 54% of annual sales, the 24% decline is less than ideal and needs urgent improvements. As if things could not get worse, VFC experienced a cyber incident in December. The incident “briefly disrupted the ability to fulfill orders over the pre-holiday period.” Management estimates that the overall impact on quarterly revenue was roughly 2%, with an impact of $.04 to $0.05 on quarterly EPS. While this was a rough quarter for VFC overall, there were a few bright spots across the board. Net debt was reduced by approximately $640M relative to the previous year, and inventories were reduced by $333M during the quarter, down 17% relative to the previous year. In addition to this, we saw a 40 basis point expansion of gross margins to 55.3%. This is coming off of four sequential quarters of margin contractions and puts VFC back above its 5-year average of 54.1%. The Vans Turnaround Back in 2004, V.F. Corporation acquired Vans for $396M. At the time, Van's annual sales were $330M. Fast-forward to 2022, and Vans evolved into the flagship brand at VFC, with annual revenues of $4.2B and celebrities from Rihanna to David Beckham lacing up the iconic shoes. However, as previously mentioned, things began to spiral during the relocation of corporate headquarters to Denver. Under Rendle's leadership, Van's profits were siphoned to fuel underperforming brands and corporate expenses. Although Van's executives grew frustrated with the shift in strategy, corporate brushed this aside and even tried to push innovations like wool sneakers, which Van's audience would not be interested in. Vans became heavily reliant on \"classic shoes\" to fuel growth as its innovative roots lost momentum. Bracken Darrell highlighted this shift in the Q3 earnings call: We actually took our eye off the core youth audience that had been the lifeblood of Vans. The brand had to evolve. But rather than continue to respect and serve the youth audience that had built the brand, we only fed the trend that grew it rapidly. Vans' turnaround is one of, if not the biggest, focus for Bracken Darrell. Spending over half of his time at Vans Costa Mesa, CA campus, Darrell has gotten a first-hand look at the Vans team and its problems. One of the first changes we have seen at Vans is re-evaluating the distribution strategy, including closing multiple retail DTC stores. Management has been focused on resetting the marketplace, which essentially includes clearing out unproductive products and right-sizing inventories. While VFC's overall inventories were down 17% relative to last year, Van's inventories were reduced by approximately 30%. The most critical aspect of delivering the Van's turnaround is returning to its innovative roots. We are already beginning to see some promising signs in this aspect, with product lines such as the Knu Skool, Lowland, and Ultra Range garnering significant traction and robust growth. While it is still the early innings, the growing popularity of Knu Skools, particularly with young girls, highlights the return to the lifeblood of Van's core audience. During a channel check, I actually bought myself two pairs of Vans Lowlands and have nothing but great things to say about them. They are fantastic shoes, and I continue to receive compliments on them. Management has already created an innovative \"18-month marketing plan and product roadmap\", even hinting at plans for the upcoming Summer Olympics. In addition, VFC recently announced plans to open 300 stores across the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia. These mono-brand stores will strengthen the presence of VFC's brands, including Vans, across the region and drive international growth. During the Q3 earnings call, Darrell highlighted his confidence, claiming, \"I'm not ready yet to commit to when the brand will return to growth, but it will.\" Restructuring and Potential Divestitures As part of Project Reinvent, the transformational program announced in Q2 2023, management emphasized optimizing cost structure and lowering the overall cost base. To do so, management outlined a $300M fixed cost reduction target by the next fiscal year, and as of Q3, it is well on its way. In the Q3 earnings call, management has guided for $50M to $100M in additional free cash flow over the following quarters by eliminating non-core physical assets, a corporate aviation program, and multiple buildings. In addition, VFC recently announced they would be laying off about 500 employees globally, bringing total employees down to roughly 26,000. Considering the 34% surge in corporate expenses during Rendle's tenure, I am confident there is abundant \"low-hanging fruit\" for management to dispose of. Part of the Reinvent project also includes a strategic review of the entire brand portfolio. While rumors of a Packs business divestiture, including JanSport, Kipling, and Eastpak, have been swirling for over two years, talks seem to be intensifying. During the Q3 earnings call, management cited \"We've got a number of parties who are highly interested and engaging through kind of a round of bids and in the middle of pretty substantive due diligence as we speak.\" JanSport and the entire pack business, which hasn't been mentioned on an earnings call in over seven years, are valued at roughly $500M. At the same time, Bracken Darrell stated, \"We meant it when we said no sacred cows, so we're really taking an objective look at all the brands.\" This mentality seems to suggest that one of the \"core four\" brands is on the table along with the Packs business. With The North Face's continued strength and a heightened focus on the Vans turnaround, these brands appear to be going nowhere. This leaves us with both Timberland and Dickies as potential sale candidates. With $1.78B in revenues during FY2023, Timberland has been a bit of a disappointment since its 2011 acquisition. During FY2010, Timberland posted $1.4B in revenues and has a mediocre compounded annual growth rate of roughly 2% since. According to Stifel analyst Jim Duffy, Timberland could yield over $900M and be seen \"as an appropriate strategic direction and a potential catalyst for shares.\" Dickies, with FY2023 revenues of $725.2M, would be the other sale candidate in this scenario. Dickies is another brand that didn't pan out as expected for VFC after acquiring it in 2017 for $820M. Dickies has fallen well short of VF Corp's forecasted $1B annual revenues through 2021 and has continued to see softness in demand. Balance Sheet One of the biggest drivers of the pessimism surrounding VFC is the excess leverage, with $6.2B in gross debt. This past November, Moody's downgraded VF Corp's long-term debt rating to Baa3, the lowest investment grade, due to concerns about weakened demand at Vans. While management's target of 2.5x gross leverage has stayed the same, they certainly have their work cut out for them. This past quarter, management reduced net debt by $640M relative to the previous year. Below, I have listed VFC's long-term debt schedule. VFC Public FilingsWith the 0.625% notes ($923,454) already paid this past September, upcoming maturities include the Draw Term Loan Agreement due December 2024 ($999,269) and the 2.4% senior notes ($746,933) due April 2025. Management has publicly stated that \"our objective is to not refinance those two tranches of debt that are due in December and April.\" While talk of not refinancing is fantastic, management has to put this into action. Management has built a sizable cash position over the past few quarters, bringing total cash and short-term investments to $988M. This was fueled by two dividend cuts over the past year, including a 40% cut in February 2023 and a 70% cut in October 2023. While no company wants to be stripped of the \"dividend aristocrat title,\" deleveraging is critical for long-term health. In addition to these dividend cuts, management has relied on reductions in inventories to generate additional free cash flow. This past quarter, inventories were reduced by 17% relative to last year, and management has guided for a further reduction of 10% by year-end. With inventories still at a historically elevated $2.15B, we can expect further reductions for the foreseeable future, further fueling free cash flow generation. Management has guided for $600M of free cash flow for FY2024; for FY2025, free cash flow is a bit stronger, which I estimate to be in the $700M range. In addition, management continues to sell off non-core assets, positively contributing roughly $100M over the next couple of quarters. Assuming management can successfully divest the Packs business for approximately $500M and generate the free cash flow they have guided, they should be able to pay both tranches of debt without refinancing. Any further sale of assets, such as Timberland or Dickies, would provide a massive cash cushion and eliminate any concerns over ability to pay off the debt. Valuation During 2019 through 2020, VFC regularly traded between $75-$90, hitting an all-time-high of $100.25 in 2020. Here is a financial summary of VFC in 2019:  Total Revenue: $10.27B Gross Profit: $5.62B (54.79% Gross Margin) Net Income: $1.26B (12.27% Net Profit Margin) Shares Outstanding: 396.8 Earnings Per Share: $3.19  Data by YChartsHere is my 3-year forecast valuation for what I believe VFC can achieve going forward. Author's Calculations, VFC Public FilingsWith only one quarter remaining in FY2024, I used the consensus revenue estimate of $10.51B. From 2025-2027, I elected to forecast revenue growth of roughly 3%, in line with the sector median average revenue growth of 3.18%. This return to modest growth is predicated on Van's revenue stabilization and The North Face's mid-single-digit revenue growth in FY2025. While management did not offer concrete gross margin guidance in the Q2 earnings call, they did guide for \"improved gross margins in the back half of the year.\" Over the years, the contraction in gross margins was primarily attributable to increased promotional activity and excess inventories. With these factors subsiding, I elected for sequential 100 basis point gross margin expansion through 2026, followed by flat YoY gross margin expansion in 2027. While this is a tick above VFC's five-year gross margin average of 54.1%, I believe this is highly achievable with the favorable mix of an optimized cost structure, more robust DTC sales, and a reduced promotional environment. Next, I forecasted 4% net profit margins in 2024, expanding to 9% by 2027. This stronger bottom-line expansion is predicated on most fixed cost savings ($300M) being within SG&A, something that management has repeatedly guided for. I forecasted that the shares remaining outstanding would remain flat through 2027. Although management has plenty remaining on the latest share repurchase program, I anticipate excess capital being used only for debt paydown. With that said, this leads us to an FY2027 EPS of $2.68. By assigning a 15x P/E multiple to these earnings, still below VFC's 5-year average of 19x P/E, we land at a share price of $40. This price target implies a 207% upside to VFC from today's share price. Over three years, this boils down to a 45% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) before considering any quarterly dividend payments. Conclusion With the extreme pessimism surrounding VFC as of late, I can't help but think of a famous Warren Buffett quote: \"Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.\"   It is nearly impossible to predict an absolute bottoming of a company's share price, but it is essential to remember that nothing has changed in the business model! As Tom Hayes likes to say, your liquidation is my opportunity. VFC has been a consistent compounder of capital for the past 125 years, and I don't see this trend going anywhere. Incredible things are happening at VFC under Bracken Darrell, and in my eyes, they are just getting started. The Van's turnaround is well underway, and I am happy to be along for the ride. VFC remains my top turnaround pick for 2024 and beyond. I view any short-term weakness as a prime opportunity to add a fantastic business to your portfolio.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2430334277"}