Chalmers’ narrow budget path is now in peril

The Australian Financial Review04-26

Even more ominously, that would expose the clear weaknesses in Labor’s growth agenda, now underlined by Anthony Albanese’s Future Made in Australia policy of manufacturing subsidies that has drawn ...

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But this week’s inflation reading and the financial market’s reaction is a clear sign that this “narrow path” is now in peril.That’s first of all because Labor’s first instinct is to spend, not save. After the pandemic’s extraordinary budget supports, federal government spending has been ratcheted up by nearly 2 percentage points of GDP, helped along by the out-of-control National Disability Insurance Scheme.Australia’s political culture has evolved into one where any political problem delivers a fix of more spending. This has been partly obscured by Australia’s luck in being blessed by a surge of national income from the surge in iron ore, coal and LNG export prices from the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Dr Chalmers has resisted Labor demands to spend this temporary windfall, but the overall level of spending still needs to come down.AdvertisementPoor productivity has been the economy’s biggest structural weakness under both sides of politics, but Labor’s industrial relations policies aim to strengthen union bargaining power with no productivity offsets. Pattern bargaining and redefining casual work are not “closing loopholes”, they are re-regulating Australian workplaces in ways not seen since the 1970s.Labor wants to lift the minimum wage floor, already one of the world’s highest, in line with inflation for a third year running. That is now feeding a core services sector inflation rate running at 6.5 per cent: inflation is accelerating for movie tickets, haircuts and visits to the dentist as the economy’s cost structure inflates. Yet Labor has spread an election meme that inflation is caused by big supermarkets, corporate profiteering and lack of big business competition.When headed by governor Philip Lowe, Dr Chalmers said many Australians would find the Reserve Bank’s interest rate increases “hard to cop”. But, if the Reserve Bank is forced to lift again, it will be partly because Australia’s official cash rate has not already increased high enough to make up for policy failings elsewhere.Have your sayWe are always interested to hear your views on current topics.Guidelines for how to write an opinion article are here.Guidelines for how to write a letter to the editor are here.Please send your letter to edletters@afr.com.au.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2430879244"}