Where Will Tesla Stock Be in Five Years?

Motley Fool04-29

Tesla's shares are soaring since it released first-quarter earnings. But company fundamentals don't seem to justify the rally. Is CEO Elon Musk over-promising and under-delivering? ...

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Can the rally last?","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fool.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","BK4555":"新能源车","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4588":"碎股","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC"},"translate_title":"五年后特斯拉的股票会在哪里？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1,"TSLA":1},"content_text":"Tesla's shares are soaring since it released first-quarter earnings.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBut company fundamentals don't seem to justify the rally. \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIs CEO Elon Musk over-promising and under-delivering?\n\nDown 35% year to date, Tesla's (TSLA -1.11%) stock has been in a tailspin as challenges like high interest rates and softening electric vehicle (EV) demand weigh on its business performance. That said, investor sentiment seems to be improving following the company's first-quarter earnings call, when CEO Elon Musk outlined his vision for the future. Will the controversial billionaire over-promise and under-deliver, or is this the start of another sustainable bull run? Let's dig deeper to find out what the next five years could have in store for Tesla's stock. First-quarter earnings weren't impressiveWith Tesla's stock price up by almost 20% since earnings were released on April 23, casual observers can be forgiven for assuming its operational results were good. They weren't. In fact, they were the opposite. Sales slumped by 9% year over year to $21.3 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) of 45 cents missed the analyst consensus of 51 cents. Image source: Getty Images.On the whole, Tesla is selling fewer cars for less money. And this has a lot to do with macroeconomic challenges like high interest rates, which erode demand for new vehicles by making financing less affordable. Management has attempted to address this challenge with price cuts across the company's lineup. But while these efforts have probably limited the sales decline, they are also eroding Tesla's once-high operating margins, which fell from 11.4% to just 5.5% year over year. CEO Elon Musk suggests that Tesla is not just a car company. However, automotive sales represented around 86% of its first-quarter sales. And while verticals like energy storage and services posted modest growth rates (7% and 25%, respectively), it wasn't enough to move the needle. Tesla isn't a car company -- or is it?With operational results in a tailspin, Tesla's recent stock price surge can only be explained by investor confidence in Elon Musk's ability to navigate the storm. In the first-quarter earnings call, the controversial billionaire highlighted Tesla's long-term strategy, which will include the accelerated rollout of more affordable options as soon as early 2025. More importantly, Musk claims the new vehicles will use Tesla's existing Model 3 production lines, meaning less supply chain complexity than novel platforms like the Cybertruck, which had to overcome substantial production delays and cost overruns. Musk is also emphasizing Tesla's potential in autonomous driving with a robotaxi, which he plans to unveil in August.Analysts at UBS predict the autonomous taxi market could be worth a whopping $2 trillion by 2030. And this would certainly be enough of an opportunity to make Tesla's traditional EV business a distant afterthought. But it is still unclear when (or even if) the technology will be ready for widespread adoption. What will the next five years have in store for Tesla?Tesla's history gives us a very clear lesson: Don't bet against Elon Musk over the long term. The company has returned over 900% under his visionary leadership over the previous half-decade, and he shows no signs of dropping the ball anytime soon.That said, Musk also has a track record of overpromising and underdelivering. The executive has frequently pushed back his timelines for full-self-driving cars, and produced vehicles (such as the Cybertruck) with dramatically higher selling prices than expected. With this in mind, I think investors are placing too much faith in his most recent remarks. And with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 63, Tesla's valuation is beginning to look elevated considering its deteriorating fundamentals. Tesla remains a great way to bet on Musk's leadership and potential to transition from automotive dependence. And it looks likely to outperform the market over the next five years. However, the present looks grim, and investors may want to wait for a lower price before buying the stock.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2431095646"}