trivago: Fair Company, Wonderful Price

seekingalpha04-30

Contrary to popular belief, Warren Buffett earned his greatest returns when focusing on fair companies trading at wonderful prices.trivago, still reeling from COVID-19 fallout and facing increasing ...

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Airplane flying over tropical sea at sunset murat4artSummary Most of today's value investors are intimately familiar with Warren Buffett's investment philosophy, which can be summed up with one of his most popular quotes: \"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.\" While this is true for an investor of Buffett's enormous scale, things were much different in his early years, when he was managing a significantly smaller fund. In those days, when Buffett achieved his greatest returns, his investment style was more akin to Benjamin Graham's; buying fair (and much smaller) businesses for wonderful prices. trivago (NASDAQ:TRVG) is potentially a sound candidate for this lucrative investment approach. The business itself, an internet-based technology firm that specializes in travel and lodging price comparisons, is nothing special. With no obvious competitive moat, struggling revenue growth, and intense competition, this would certainly not fit into Buffett's \"wonderful business\" category. As we shall see, however, the company possesses a long and relatively stable enough history of cash generation, and potentially trades low enough to fit snuggly into the Sage of Omaha's idea of \"wonderfully priced\". Business Summary trivago is a global hotel and accommodation platform founded in 2005 by three college students; Rolf Schromgens, Peter Vinnemeier, and Stephen Stubner in Dusseldorf, Germany. After significant growth and international expansion over the ensuing years, the American travel company, Expedia Group (EXPE), acquired a 63% stake for 477 million EUR in 2013. trivago subsequently IPO'd on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange in December of 2016. As of December 31, 2023, Expedia Group owns 60% of issued shares and 84.1% of voting power in trivago. trivago's mission, based on their 2023 annual report, is to \"[reshape] the way travelers search for and compare different types of accommodations, such as hotels, vacation rentals and apartments, while enabling [its] advertisers to grow their businesses by providing them with access to a broad audience of travelers via [trivago's] websites and apps\". Essentially, trivago is a search engine designed for users to seamlessly compare hotel prices, guest ratings, photos, and a variety of other metrics deemed pertinent by the user. As of year-end 2023, the company has approximately 5 million hotels and other accommodations listed on its platform. While similar in functionality to competitors like Booking.com and Priceline, users of the trivago platform do not book directly through the trivago website or application. Rather, based on the user's search criteria, trivago compiles and displays a list of accommodation offers advertised by their customers. When a user clicks on one of these offers, they are linked directly to the advertiser's site where they complete their booking. trivago's customers consist primarily of online travel agencies like Expedia Group and Booking Holdings (BKNG). Ironically, trivago's majority shareholder, Expedia Group, is also one of its largest customers - accounting for 36% of revenue in 2023. trivago search example (trivago) The way that trivago generates revenue is simple; when a user clicks on an advertised offer, the advertiser pays trivago a fee. This method is known as \"cost-per-click\", or \"CPC\" bidding. To facilitate this, trivago has built an auction platform that enables their advertising customers to submit CPC bids/rates to compete for visibility and prominence on the company's platform. This auction system is known as trivago's \"marketplace\", and it is powered by their proprietary ranking and sorting algorithm. The company also offers its customers a \"CPA\", or \"cost-per-acquisition\" model. This model shares the same concept as CPC, but the customer only pays a fee when the user completes a booking. Both CPC and CPA make up trivago's \"referral revenue\", which constituted over 98% of their total sales in FY 2023. Geographically, trivago reports its revenue through three separate segments: the Americas, Developed Europe, and Rest of World. The Rest of World segment consists primarily of Japan, Turkey, Australia, Hong Kong, and India. As of the end of FY 2023, the Americas account for approximately 37% of revenue, Developed Europe 45%, and Rest of world 18%. trivago operates in over 190 countries worldwide. Historical Performance According to Custom Market Insights, the global tourism market is projected to reach $12.3 billion dollars in 2032; a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% from 2023. While this bodes well for hotel and accommodation platforms in general, one must also take into consideration the profound impact the recent COVID-19 pandemic has had on the industry. Despite the general resumption of normalcy in the travel space following the pandemic, some companies have struggled more than others to find their sea legs. trivago's recent financial performance is a clear attestation to this. Revenue Looking at the data provided by Seeking Alpha, as seen in the graph below, trivago managed to grow its revenue from 309 million EUR in 2014 to 839 million EUR in 2019, a CAGR of approximately 22%.   trivago revenue trend 2014 - 2019 (Seeking Alpha)trivago's revenue reached a high at the end of 2017, recording a whopping FY CAGR of 37% and surpassing the 1 billion EUR mark for the first time in the company's history. Unfortunately, this was also the last time. The two subsequent years saw trivago's revenue decline by 12% and 8%, respectively. In the 2018 earnings transcript, Rolf Schromgens, the company's CEO, attributes the revenue decline to a \"marketing reduction\" in order to achieve \"optimization and recalibration of ... advertising spend\". In the 2019 annual report things are far more ominous; the company cites a \"slowdown in industry growth, growing competition, and reduced spend of [its] large OTA advertisers\" as the causes of revenue contraction. Notably, the company specifically mentions that \"competition has increased as Google has invested into its own hotel metasearch product trying to capture more of the value in the industry and grow its profit base\". Google released this product in 2018. From there, things went from bad to worse. As a direct result of the COVID 19 pandemic, the company's revenues took an utterly precipitous plunge in 2020 - dropping by about 70% to 248 million EUR.   trivago revenue trend 2017 - 2023 (Seeking Alpha)The same revenue collapse can be seen in trivago's publicly traded industry peers such as Expedia Group and Booking Holdings. However, unlike trivago, Expedia Group and Booking Holdings' revenues have bounced back to pre-pandemic levels and beyond. Expedia Group Revenue History 2014 - 2023 (Seeking Alpha)Booking Holdings' Revenue History 2014 - 2023 (Seeking Alpha)So, what has caused trivago's revenues to languish behind its peers? The continuing theme from before the pandemic is competition. In the Q4 2023 earnings transcript, the shrinking revenue from the prior year is attributed to \"higher levels of competition in certain marketing channels [continuing] to result in performance marketing volume losses.\" In other words, because of competition, less people are using the platform. trivago also mentions \"adverse effects of low brand marketing investments in the recent years\" negatively impacting its revenue. Return on Advertising Spend Advertising spend consistently makes up the bulk of trivago's expenses. Over time, however, trivago has been successful in reducing its advertising spend as an overall percentage of revenue. This is conversely expressed in the return on advertising spend (ROAS) equation that trivago uses to assess its ability to optimize marketing expenditure. The equation simply analyzes the amount of revenue generated for the amount spent on advertisement: ROAS = referral revenue / advertising spend The below figure shows the trend of trivago's ROAS over time as it relates to advertising spend as a percentage of revenue: trivago ROAS vs advertising spend as a % of Revenue (trivago Investor Relations)According to trivago, this metric illustrates how they have become increasingly skilled in optimizing their advertising spend. Free Cash Flow While trivago has clearly had issues maintaining its revenue in the past, they have been relatively successful in generating cash flow in recent years. In fact, even when trivago's revenue was ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, it still managed to stay FCF positive, generating 2.371 million EUR in free cash flow (FCF). trivago FCF 2015 - 2023 (trivago Investor Relations)Since then, trivago has generated annual FCF of 28.755, 62.292, 24.287 million EUR in 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively. This has generally been achieved through staff and office space reductions, as well as lighter advertisement spend. Cash/Debt The below figure shows the cash/cash equivalents on trivago's balance sheet since 2014. The recent dip in 2023 is due to a \"one-time extraordinary dividend paid to shareholders in the fourth quarter of 2023 totaling 184.4 million EUR.\" trivago cash & cash equivalents 2014 - 2023 (Seeking Alpha)Additionally, trivago has, for the most part, maintained a net cash balance since 2014, indicating responsible financial management. The below figure shows trivago's net debt balance since 2014. trivago net cash/net debt 2014 - 2023 (Seeking Alpha)Risks As a company lacking any form of obvious competitive moat, trivago's most substantial risk is competition. The following competitors are explicitly mentioned in the FY 2023 annual report: Kayak, TripAdvisor, Skyscanner, Google Hotel Ads, Check24, Booking.com, Ctrip, TUUI, trip.com, Brand Expedia, Airbnb and Vrbo. Standing head and shoulders above the rest in this list is Google Hotel Ads. The threat from Google is two-pronged; not only does Google Hotel Ads act as a direct competitor to trivago, but with an almost 92% share of the global search engine market, Google has the ability to give precedence to their own products \"at the expense of traditional keyword auctions and organic search results.\" trivago's revenue trends are admittedly difficult to discern due to the unprecedented impact from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the fact that trivago's revenue peaked in 2017, the year before Google Hotel Ads was released, may not be coincidental. When discussing competitive risks in the 2023 annual report, trivago mentions that their competitors \"may have been in existence longer, may have larger user bases, may have wider ranges of products and services and may have greater brand recognition and customer loyalty, ... and/or significantly greater financial, marketing, personnel, technical and other resources than [they] do\". Google checks all of these boxes. To combat this formidable foe, trivago is making significant investments towards a \"brand refresh\" campaign to \"enhance trivago's memorability and appeal\". While these investments could indeed revive trivago's brand and generate more revenue, the resulting pressure on profitability remains a concern. In the Q4 2023 earnings call transcript, the management team mentions that they anticipate \"a negative impact on [their] near term profitability level\" and they expect adjusted EBITDA to be at \"around breakeven levels\" in FY 2024. On top of this, as with any investment, there \"can be no assurances that these revised strategies will succeed\" in the long run, and in trivago's case, it is \"too early to [make any conclusions]\" on the financial results. trivago also suffers from a litany of risks that are (arguably) less dire than the existential threat of competition. In 2023 for example, \"brands affiliated\" with Expedia Group and Booking Holdings accounted for approximately 80% of trivago's revenue. These companies are also listed as two of trivago's main competitors (and shareholders in Expedia's case), giving them a convoluted but disproportionately large level of influence on the company's direction. trivago also reports seasonality, fluid user tastes, macroeconomics, reliance on third parties, and currency fluctuations as potential risks to their operations. Valuation Disregarding trivago's precarious business fundamentals, the stock is undeniably trading at rock bottom valuations:   P/E Non-GAAP 4.27   EV/EBITDA 1.85   Price / Cash Flow 5.83   EV/Sales 0.16   Price/Sales 0.33   Price/Book 0.75   Click to enlarge We must, however, understand trivago's valuation in the broader context of their operating environment. To accomplish this, based on what we know from our above discussion, we will employ a discounted cash flow analysis to extrapolate trivago's FCF generation over the next five years and derive a conservative valuation from it. Since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, trivago has achieved the FCF numbers outlined in the below table.   Year FCF (millions EUR)   2020 2.37   2021 28.75   2022 62.29   2023 24.29     Average = 29.43   Click to enlarge The average value of these numbers, 29.43 million EUR, is chosen as our basis for the DCF calculation as it represents trivago's ability to generate FCF while also considering the pressures from COVID-19 and Google's entry into the market. To be further conservative in our calculations, the 29.43 million EUR value is rounded down to 29 million EUR.   Year FY FCF (millions EUR) Discounted FCF (millions EUR)   2024 29 24.17   2025 29 20.14   2026 29 16.76   2027 29 14.01   2028 29 11.65       Sum = 86.73   Click to enlarge Assuming zero percent growth from our initial FCF number and a discount rate/required return of 20%, we sum up the discounted FCF values to get 86.73 million EUR. Further, adding the net cash value of 95 million EUR and dividing the result by shares outstanding of 69.7 million, we get an intrinsic value per share of 3.51 EUR or $3.74 when using a 6x FCF multiple. trivago is trading at $2.55 at the time of writing this article, approximately a 30% discount to our calculated intrinsic value. Moreover, to ensure adequate downside protection, we can calculate trivago's Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) by subtracting total liabilities from current assets and dividing the result by shares outstanding. Theoretically, this will give us a hyper-conservative estimate of the value of trivago's shares if they were to liquidate the company and distribute the remaining assets to shareholders. In trivago's case, a current asset value of 207 million EUR, subtracted by a total liability value of 121 million EUR, and divided by shares outstanding of 69.7 million gives us an NCAV value of 1.23 EUR or $1.32. While this is far below the current share price of $2.55, it does not consider trivago's ability to generate cash flow - so we can treat this as a safety net in a worst case scenario. Conclusion So, is trivago an \"early Buffett\" candidate? While not strictly a Ben Graham-style \"cigar butt\" investment, the idea behind the opportunity might be the same. As explained in Buffett's 1989 shareholder letter: \"If you buy a stock at a sufficiently low price, there will usually be some hiccup in the fortunes of the business that gives you a chance to unload at a decent profit, even though the long-term performance of the business may be terrible.\" In trivago's case, it can be reasonably argued that it is trading at a \"sufficiently low price\", but it is also worth noting that the \"long-term performance\" of the business may not be completely terrible.  To be sure, the company certainly has its warts. Not only did the COVID-19 pandemic wreak havoc on trivago's revenue, but Google's recent entry into the metasearch space has so far suppressed any chance of a meaningful comeback. Despite these challenges, trivago's business model has been stable enough to consistently generate positive cash flow for its shareholders, and it is not totally unreasonable to believe this will continue into the future. Assuming that trivago isn't completely beaten out by Google; even if they fail to hitch on to the tepid growth of the broader industry, trivago's valuation tells us there still might be a few puffs left in this cigar.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2431784625"}