Apple, Cardinal Health Among 12 Companies To Announce Dividend Increases In First Half Of May

seekingalpha04-29

Eleven long-term dividend growth companies announced their annual dividend increases in the second half of April.Investors were rewarded with 10%+ increases from Grainger and Parker-Hannifin.Another ...

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Apple will announce its 12th annual dividend increase in early May. Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images This is the latest in my series of articles where I provide predictions of annual dividend increases for long-term dividend growth companies. In the middle of April, I provided predictions for 10 dividend growth companies that have historically announced annual payout increases in the second half of April. In this article, I’ll look at another 14 dividend growth companies that I expect will announce their annual dividend increases in the first half of May. Here are the results from my predictions from the second half of April (the original predictions are available here), followed by my predictions for the dividend increases that I’m expecting to be announced in the first half of May: (All yields are based on stock prices at the market close on Friday, April 26th.) Results for Dividend Increase Announcements from the Second Half of April Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP) – 19 years of dividend growth Prediction: 10.4 – 12.6% increase to $5.96 - $6.08 Actual: 9.6% increase to $5.92 Forward yield: 1.44% While not hitting double digits, the financial services firm’s latest dividend boost is higher than last year’s 8% increase. American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) – 16 years Prediction: 6.7 – 8.8% increase to $3.02 - $3.08 Actual: Deferred to early May The utility will likely announce its next dividend increase when it releases earnings on May 2nd. First Financial Bankshares, Inc. (FFIN) – 13 years Prediction: 5.6 – 8.3% increase to $0.76 - $0.78 Actual: Deferred to early May Regional bank First Financial should announce its 14th year of dividend growth in early May. W. W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) – 53 years Prediction: 5.9 – 8.1% increase to $7.88 - $8.04 Actual: 10.2% increase to $8.20 Forward yield: 0.88% Dividend growth continues to accelerate at the industrial distributor. International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) – 28 years Prediction: 0.6 – 1.2% increase to $6.68 - $6.72 Actual: Deferred to early May IBM should announce its 29th year of dividend growth in the first week of May. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – 63 years Prediction: 5.9 – 6.7% increase to $5.04 - $5.08 Actual: 4.2% increase to $4.96 Forward yield: 3.39% Dividend growth at the healthcare giant continues to slow; this year’s increase is lower than the 5.3% boost investors saw last year. Lithia & Driveway (LAD) – 14 years Prediction: 10.0 – 14.0% increase to $2.20 - $2.28 Actual: 6.0% increase to $2.12 Forward yield: 0.81% A drop in EPS forced the auto dealership chain to slow its rate of dividend growth, to roughly a third of the average growth rate over the last decade. MetLife, Inc. (MET) – 13 years Prediction: 2.8 – 5.8% increase to $2.14 - $2.20 Actual: 4.8% increase to $2.18 Forward yield: 3.10% The financial services company breaks its 6-year streak of 8-cent annual dividend growth with this year’s 10 cent boost. Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH) – 69 years Prediction: 12.8 – 15.5% increase to $6.68 - $6.84 Actual: 10.1% increase to $6.52 Forward yield: 1.18% The engineering company continued its pattern of 10%+ dividend increases. Portland General Electric Company (POR) – 18 years Prediction: 4.2 – 5.8% increase to $1.98 - $2.01 Actual: 5.3% increase to $2.00 Forward yield: 4.67% The utility’s dividend increase is right in line with its dividend growth rate of 5 – 6%. RTX Corporation (RTX) – 30 years Prediction: 4.2 – 6.8% increase to $2.46 - $2.52 Actual: Deferred to early May Defense contractor Raytheon should announce its next dividend increase the first week of May. The Southern Company (SO) – 23 years Prediction: 1.4 – 2.9% increase to $2.84 - $2.88 Actual: 2.9% increase to $2.88 Forward yield: 3.93% The Atlanta-based utility’s latest dividend increase is right in line with its 3% long-term dividend growth rate. Sonoco Products Company (SON) – 42 years Prediction: 2.0 – 3.9% increase to $2.08 - $2.12 Actual: 2.0% increase to $2.08 Forward yield: 3.68% With a drop in sales and EPS, dividend growth slowed at the packaging company. Sysco Corporation (SYY) – 55 years Prediction: 2.0 – 4.0% increase to $2.04 - $2.08 Actual: 2.0% increase to $2.04 Forward yield: 2.65% It’s another year of 2% dividend growth from foodservice company Sysco. The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) – 22 years Prediction: 7.0 – 9.0% increase to $4.28 - $4.36 Actual: 5.0% increase to $4.20 Forward yield: 1.97% Despite accelerating dividend growth at the insurer, this year’s increase is lower than expected. UGI Corporation (UGI) – 36 years Prediction: 2.7 – 5.3% increase to $1.54 - $1.58 Actual: Deferred to early May The utility will likely announce its next dividend increase the day before it releases earnings on May 2nd. Predictions for Dividend Increases in the First Half of May There are 12 long-term dividend growth companies I expect to announce their annual increases in the first half of May. First, here is my prediction for two featured companies: Apple Inc. (AAPL) – 11 years of dividend growth Dividend growth has been slowing at Apple over the last several years – after a 15% increase in 2018, the largest increase between 2019 – 2023 the 7.3% boost in 2020. Last year's increase was even lower at 4.3%. In general, the dividend increases have been around the mid-single digit percentages. This reflects the company’s priority on using its free cash flow to buy back shares; the company has bought back 1 in 8 outstanding shares since 2019. Apple has a customer base that is very loyal, which allows it to generate a massive amount of free cash flow. But there is evidence that Apple’s customers are getting overextended. In the recent quarterly earnings report and in 2023’s annual report, sales of Mac computers, iPads, and Wearables were down year-over-year. iPhone sales dropped in 2023 and rebounded slightly in the first quarter of 2024. The only consistent growth came from its Services products, which include advertising, AppleCare extended warranties, cloud services, payment services (such as the Apple credit card and Apple Pay payment system), and digital content (which includes its various subscription-based services like Apple Fitness+, the Apple Arcade gaming service, Apple Music, Apple News+ and Apple TV+ services). Revenues in 2023 were down by 1% and EPS grew less than that. Earnings did rebound in the first quarter of 2024, but revenue continued to stall, with quarterly growth only at 2%. All of the earnings growth came from growth in Apple services. Until growth from Apple Product sales returns or Services becomes a larger share of company revenue, investors can expect dividend growth to remain in the mid-single digit range. Prediction: 4.2 – 6.3% increase to $1.00 - $1.02 Predicted Forward Yield: 0.59 – 0.60% Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) – 28 years Cardinal Health distributes medical and laboratory products, and pharmaceutical products to health care providers. The company also provides technology solutions to measure and improve performance and data solutions for healthcare facilities. Dividend growth has stalled over the last several years, with the company’s 5-year compounded growth rate of 1% well below the 5% rate over the last decade, representing a sharp slowdown in dividend growth. Lawsuit settlements in 2021 and 2023 hit earnings, but with the lawsuits behind it, it looks like earnings growth will return. Adjusted EPS growth (which excluded the one-time costs of settling lawsuits) rose to 14% and is expected to rise further to 25% in 2024. 2023 earnings growth came primarily from revenue growth in the Pharmaceutical Segment; the 15% growth there more than made up for a 5% drop in revenues in the company’s Medical Segment. And while overall adjusted earnings grew only 3%, the company’s use of free cash flow to buy back shares resulted in the 14% EPS growth noted above. Cardinal Health’s guidance of increasing free cash flow in 2024 means additional share buybacks and easier financing of the recently announced acquisition of Specialty Networks, a provider of analytic and “big data” capabilities to health care providers. It’ll also mean a small acceleration from last year’s 1% dividend growth. Prediction: 2.0 – 4.0% increase to $2.0424 - $2.0825 Predicted Forward Yield: 1.98 – 2.02% Here are my predictions for 10 other long-term dividend growth companies which should announce annual increases in the first half of May:          Company # Yrs Industry Prediction (%) New Annual Rate   Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) 25 Financial - Regional Banks 0 - 5.2% $0.76 - $0.80  Earnings fell in 2023 for the financial services company took a loss on the sale of investment securities. The resulting 72% drop in EPS gives Alerus a payout ratio of 130% and investors little hope for a large dividend boost this year. The best that investors can hope for is another year of a 4-cent annual increase. Predicted Forward Yield: 3.74 - 3.94%  CNO Financial Group (CNO) 11 Financial - Insurance 6.70% $0.64  Although the financial services company has built an 11-year history of dividend growth, CNO Financial focuses on share buybacks, with the share count dropping from 148 million shares to less than 110 million shares since 2019. And although EPS fell more than 50% in 2023, the company’s payout ratio of 25% leaves room for a 10th straight year of 4-cent annual dividend growth. Predicted Forward Yield: 2.42%  Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (CPK) 20 Utilities - Regulated Gas 4.2% - 5.9% $2.46 - $2.50  Chesapeake Utilities tends to compound its dividend around 8 – 10% annually. However, this year acquired Florida City Gas in November 2023. While the acquisition came too late to impact 2023 earnings, Chesapeake is still digesting the acquisition, which will cause EPS growth to slow to below 2% from 5.4% in 2023. The slowdown is also due to Chesapeake issuing 25% more shares to finance the acquisition. The earnings slowdown means that dividend growth should slow as well. Investors can expect an increase of roughly half last year’s 10% increase. Predicted Forward Yield: 2.34 - 2.38%  Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) 29 Industrials - Integrated Freight & Logistics 1.4% - 2.9% $1.40 - $1.42  After getting hit hard by the pandemic, earnings at the shipping and logistics company are suffering from supply chain stressors from the conflicts in the Middle East and Red Sea. EPS fell 40% in 2023 and the company’s expecting continuing headwinds, with further staffing cuts planned. The only bright side right now is Expeditors’ 28% payout ratio, which leaves room for a small dividend increase. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.24 - 1.25%  FactSet Research Systems, Inc. (FDS) 25 Financial - Financial Data & Stock Exchanges 8.2% - 10.2% $4.24 - $4.32  FactSet provides financial data to nearly 8000 customers around the world. The company sports a good dividend growth rate in the 9 – 11% range over the last decade, with last year’s 10.1% boost typical of the company’s increases. FactSet is guiding adjusted EPS growth in 2024 to between 7 and 10%, similar to 2023’s EPS growth of 8%. Investors can look forward to another increase around 10% this year. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.01 - 1.02%  Leggett & Platt, Inc. (LEG) 52 Consumer Cyclical - Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances 0% - 2.2% $1.84 - $1.88  The bedding and furniture manufacturer is dealing with difficult times. Earnings have been slipping since 2021, hitting a nadir last year as the company lost $1.00 a share in 2023. Leggett & Platt expects to swing back to profit this year. However, even at the high end of guidance, the company will sport a payout ratio just shy of 150%. With a yield north of 10%, the market is pricing in a dividend cut. I think it’s more likely that the company holds its dividend steady and not walk away from a half-century of dividend growth, and there’s a very small chance that the company announces a minimal increase. Predicted Forward Yield: 10.23 - 10.45%  MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) 52 Industrials - Security and Protection Services 4.3% - 6.4% $1.96 - $2.00  Dividend growth at MSA Safety has slowed, hitting a low of 2.2% last year, as the company focuses on reducing its debt load. The good news for investors is that debt has fallen at MSA and revenues and adjusted EPS are growing at double digits. The only mitigating factor is that GAAP EPS are still under pressure. Despite this, free cash flow is growing quickly, so investors can expect dividend growth to pick up. I expect the next dividend increase to be around the company’s long-term growth rate of 5%. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.04 - 1.06%  Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) 20 Industrials - Aerospace & Defense 8.0% - 9.1% $8.08 - $8.16  One of the big three defense contractors, Northrop Grumman saw sales grow in 2023, due primarily to double-digit growth in its Space Systems business segment. Unfortunately, earnings fell due to the company taking a loss on its B-21 low-rate initial production contract. However, the company is expecting EPS to rebound in 2024 and to grow free cash flow at 15% annually through 2026. So, despite the fall in earnings, I expect the company to match or slightly exceed last year’s 8% dividend increase. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.68 - 1.70%  Pool Corporation (POOL) 13 Industrials - Industrial Distribution 7.3% - 9.1% $4.72 - $4.80  The wholesale distributor of swimming pool and other backyard products has built an envious dividend growth rate of 20% over the last decade. Last year’s dividend increase of 10% didn’t keep up with that rate and investors can expect to see a continuing slowdown. EPS growth slowed from 2022 to 2023, and the company is providing 2024 EPS guidance ranging from a drop of 2% to 5.6% growth. Even if the company hits the high point, it won’t justify anything close to a 20% dividend increase. Look for a boost in the high single digits as dividend growth continues to slow. Predicted Forward Yield: 1.27 - 1.29%  Tetra Tech, Inc. (TTEK) 9 Industrials - Engineering & Construction 13.5% - 17.3% $1.18 - $1.22  The environmental engineering consulting company is building a good record for investors as it completes its first decade as a dividend growth company. Tetra Tech has a 5-year compounded growth rate of 17%; last year’s boost of 13% was one of the smaller ones over the last decade. The company grew EPS by 5% in 2023, but recently raised its 2024 guidance and is now expecting close to 20% EPS growth. With a payout ratio of 20%, investors can look forward to another year of mid-teen percentage growth. Predicted Forward Yield: 0.61 - 0.63%  Click to enlarge Summary Most of the dividend increases we saw in the third and fourth weeks of April were very modest, with companies like Southern Company and Sysco boosting their payouts by a minimal amount to keep their dividend growth records going. However, there were a few nice increases – Grainger and Parker-Hannifin announced 10% increases, while Ameriprise announced an increase just shy of 10%. For investors focused on companies with long dividend growth histories, the previously mentioned Parker-Hannifin extended its record to 69 years, health care giant Johnson & Johnson extended its streak to 63 years, Sysco announced its 55th year of dividend growth, and Grainger announced its 53rd year of dividend growth.  Coming up in the first half of May, I’m expecting widely held tech company Apple to announce an increase in the mid-single digit percentages, while health care company Cardinal Health should announce an increase in the low-single digit percentages. Another significant increase includes aerospace and defense company Northrop Grumman, from which I’m expecting an 8 – 9% increase. Finally, dividend king Leggett & Platt – with a 52-year record of dividend growth – is at risk of skipping its annual increase and, with a massive 10% yield and falling earnings, is at risk of a potential dividend cut.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2431851699"}