HODLing VanEck's Bitcoin Spot ETF

seekingalpha05-01

HODL is VanEck's latest ETF, offering spot exposure to Bitcoin.HODL's discount-premium volatility is higher than that of GBTC.The recent Bitcoin supply halving was a non-event where psychological ...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHODLing VanEck's Bitcoin Spot ETF\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-01 02:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4687625-hodling-vanecks-spot-bitcoin-etf><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>HODL is VanEck's latest ETF, offering spot exposure to Bitcoin.HODL's discount-premium volatility is higher than that of GBTC.The recent Bitcoin supply halving was a non-event where psychological ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4687625-hodling-vanecks-spot-bitcoin-etf\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"03042","symbol_name":"华夏比特币","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4687625-hodling-vanecks-spot-bitcoin-etf","article_id":"2432588176","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1706231587/image_1706231587.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2432588176","pubTimestamp":1714502867,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"HODL is VanEck's latest ETF, offering spot exposure to Bitcoin.HODL's discount-premium volatility is higher than that of GBTC.The recent Bitcoin supply halving was a non-event where psychological market bias was a dominant factor over actual supply-demand dynamics.The growth of the digital asset ETF sector, particularly Spot Bitcoin ETFs, is expected to reduce inefficiencies in both the size and duration of premiums or discounts.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Extra Substance as a new contributing analyst. You can become one too!","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"83042":"华夏比特币-R","03042":"华夏比特币","HODL":"VanEck Bitcoin Trust ETF","09439":"嘉实比特币-U","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","EFUT":"VanEck Ethereum Strategy ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念","03008":"博时比特币","09042":"华夏比特币-U","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","03439":"嘉实比特币","09008":"博时比特币-U","DAPP":"VanEck Digital Transformation ETF"},"translate_title":"HODLing VanEck的比特币现货ETF","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"83042":0.6,"03042":1,"GBTC":1,"FDN":1,"EFUT":1,"DAPP":1,"09439":1,"09042":1,"09008":1,"03439":1,"03008":1,"BTCmain":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"HODL":0.9},"content_text":"HODL is VanEck's latest ETF, offering spot exposure to Bitcoin.HODL's discount-premium volatility is higher than that of GBTC.The recent Bitcoin supply halving was a non-event where psychological market bias was a dominant factor over actual supply-demand dynamics.The growth of the digital asset ETF sector, particularly Spot Bitcoin ETFs, is expected to reduce inefficiencies in both the size and duration of premiums or discounts.Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Extra Substance as a new contributing analyst. You can become one too! Share your best investment idea by submitting your article for review to our editors. Get published, earn money, and unlock exclusive SA Premium access. Click here to find out more »    Torsten AsmusThe aptly named VanEck Bitcoin Trust ETF (BATS:HODL) - particularly in regard to the ticker symbol HODL - is the newest ETF investment vehicle from VanEck that allows traditional investors to gain spot exposure to Bitcoin (BTC-USD). Prior to HODL, VanEck launched two other digital asset ETFs: the first (in 2021) was called the VanEck Vectors Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP), which targets the MVIS Global Digital Assets Equity Index, while the second (in 2023) one was the VanEck Ethereum Strategy ETF (EFUT), an actively managed fund that trades futures contracts to derive an Ethereum-linked value without holding any underlying Ethereum. The first thought that comes to mind with the recent launch of HODL is the long-term benefits that these ETFs bring. The onslaught of new ETF's like VanEck's HODL creates a natural increase in competition, which in turn presses on the margins of asset managers through decreased fees, a net win for holders and prospective investors alike. To lure in early investors, VanEck's has waived their 0.20% fee up until March 31, 2025, or until their NAV reaches $1.5 billion, whichever comes first. As of writing, HODL's NAV is at $610.05 million, meaning that the fee is still waived. This aspect alone makes HODL a worthy opponent to the two dozen related ETFs currently available to the market. Of the 24 available ETFs, only 10 are based on Spot; the rest use futures contracts to derive their relative Bitcoin value. Below, you will see a snapshot of the competing Spot Bitcoin ETFs. HODL has an expense ratio at the lower end of the range, only beaten by EZBC at 0.19%. CoinGlassGiven that HODL was only launched a few months ago, I don't believe there is sufficient trading history to give long-term comments on the premium or discount it will trade at once the AUM reaches a steady state, but below is a view of the discount or premium that HODL and the largest competing Spot ETF, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have been trading at year to date. This comparison gives a pretty clear view of the benefits that deep liquidity and a longer track record get you: GBTC's discount-premium volatility is much lower than HODL. At present, there is a roughly 5x difference between the two. Data by YChartsHowever, don't be fooled by the YTD time constraint. If we zoom out, you'll see the scary truth of holding a spot ETF during a bear market. Below, you'll see the deep discount GBTC was trading at relative to its underlying value. Unfortunately, this discount has since been removed for two reasons: primarily the approval of other competing ETFs, defining a clear stabilization as of 2024, and second, the increasing value of Bitcoin, leading to an increased interest in holding the assets and a sentiment shift in the willingness to buy the ETF again. Data by YChartsWhat does this mean for the future? Given the growth of the digital asset ETF sector, and in particular the Spot Bitcoin ETFs, it is my opinion that this increased attention will naturally reduce inefficiencies in both the size and duration of premiums or discounts. Although it would be unlikely, prospective investors need to understand the real risks associated with the volatile market, the crash of Bitcoin price could cause Bitcoin ETFs to trade at a discount until interest in the product is rekindled in the next bull run, a discount that, in the case of GBTC lasted for years. Don't trust; Verify Looking on-chain is an important aspect of due diligence for crypto-related assets. An easy first step is to monitor on-chain fund movements to ensure that HODL's Bitcoin wallet is interacting with secure intermediates. Furthermore, by using the publicly available ledger, we can confirm that the HODL's wallet contains the correct publicly disclosed quantity of Bitcoin. Looking on-chain, VanEck's HODL Bitcoin wallet is <3FM9vDYsN2iuMPKWjAcqgyahdwdrUxhbJ3> At the time of writing, the wallet holds BTC 9276.53499999 (roughly $599,537,633). Feel free to paste that address into your block explorer of preference, such as blockchain.com, to get an updated figure on HODL's holdings, as well as any related transactions they have made. We can verify that the BTC balance found on-chain matches the 9,276 Bitcoin that VanEck has documented on their website under 'Bitcoin in Trust'. Digging a bit deeper, I have visualized the transactions below to see exactly how the funds have moved and what wallets the HODL's wallet has interacted with. ArkhamThe related wallets have been organized into four color groups, where the less transparent the connecting line is, the larger the amount transacted. Green lines show inflows, and red lines show outflows. The yellow box on the top left represents Gemini-associated wallets, which is VanEck's main custodian. Coinbase wallets are surrounded by the brown box on the bottom left, which is another custodian solution that many Bitcoin ETFs use. The bottom right blue box shows small dust transactions. Zooming in on the pink box, it contains two larger transactions that are a bit more obfuscated. 1. bc1qz7jxflj3x0hhu67x25uryy4pu3ufm6953gtfmd sent $2.91m worth of BTC to the HODL wallet, which stems from a Gemini custody wallet. Arkham2. bc1qdc8did550j50gvmnskpeq0v7qu7xp4a4tw79e3 is the other wallet in the pink box that sent $1.88m; unfortunately, I was unable to find a clear wallet owner, and it is most likely some intermediary wallet or OTC solution. To conclude the on-chain analysis, we were able to verify that VanEck's HODL wallet holds the correct amount of Bitcoin on-chain. This ensures that investors are not exposed to unknown custody risks. Furthermore, the on-chain fund movements did not raise any red flags; however, active investors should continue to monitor this wallet when reviewing their investment in HODL. In short, on-chain due diligence for crypto investors is as important as quarterly reports for stock investors. Post-halving world As expected, the recent Bitcoin supply halving was a non-event where psychological market bias was a far more dominant factor than actual supply-demand dynamics. Since the last halving, there have been 1,312,500 BTC mined, which means there will be 656,250 BTC mined until the next halving takes place. The simplified narrative was that miners would want to sell off BTC to pay for their running costs. This is a bit misleading for two reasons, first, miners can sell at any point, there is no unlocking or vesting that effects whether or not a miner can sell. Second, the idea of unprofitable miners leaving the network becomes balanced by Bitcoin's network dynamics. The hash rate will simply adjust based on the total compute of the network. The BlockSummary  In summary, VanEck's HODL ETF is a positive note for the industry as it signifies mainstream attention for Bitcoin and digital assets, helping investors get access to cheaper products. Further, the waived fee up until 2025 makes HODL an attractive option for prospective investors. However, one should be weary of potential premium-discount NAV, though this is likely to stabilize in the coming years. The impact, or rather, non-impact, of the Bitcoin halving should not be of huge importance to most investors. To conclude, if direct exposure to Bitcoin is not possible, HODL is a great alternative to gain Bitcoin exposure but should obviously not be seen as a substitute to Bitcoin. Happy HODLing.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.28.3","shortVersion":"4.28.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2432588176"}