3 Blue-Chip Bargains Trading At 52-Week Lows

seekingalpha05-02

Value investors have been frustrated as growth stocks have outperformed for the past 15 years.Value investing is a long-term strategy that requires patience and a focus on fundamentals.Three blue-chip...

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Minerva Studio/iStock via Getty Images  Value investors have been frustrated for years. \"Growth has been in a bubble for 15 years thanks to the Fed!\" I've heard that from many value investors in the past few years. Today, I wanted to explain why the value stock \"bear market\" isn't really a bear market and showcase three blue-chip bargains trading at 52-week lows that you might want to consider. Three companies exemplify perfectly how it's always and forever a market of stocks, not a stock market.  Bristol-Myers (BMY) Zoetis (ZTS) Monster Beverage (MNST)    3 Blue-Chip Bargains To Consider Trading At 52-Week Lows YChartsAfter falling from a peak of 5.9% over three weeks and 5% of that in the final week alone, the market appears to be recovering. I completely understand the frustration many investors are experiencing. After waiting patiently for months for a healthy and normal and inevitable pullback or correction, stocks barely fell and now threaten to start hitting new record highs again. So here are three quality blue-chip bargains hitting 52-week lows for you to consider. Bristol -Myers: The Best Time In 12 Years To Buy This Pharma Giant Bristol-Myers is 41% below its record highs. Portfolio Visualizer Premium That's the second-biggest bear market since 1985. Portfolio Visualizer Premium This might get your attention, especially for high-yield investors. BMY is now trading at a yield of more than 5%. YChartsThat's the highest level in 12 years. Yield ChartIn the last quarter century, BMY has had a yield this high just 7% of the time. So why is Bristol so hated right now? Why is a market that's doing so well punishing this pharma giant? FactSet Research TerminalBristol faces one of the biggest patent cliffs in the industry in the next few years, causing analysts to expect sales and earnings in 2029 to be lower than in 2023. There's also the timing of closing its Celgene acquisition, which Bristol bought in 2019 for $74 billion. That added over $40 billion in debt, and in 2022, the Fed hiked rates to the highest levels in 20 years. Bristol still had $30 billion in net debt, and let's not forget one other revolution sweeping the industry. Ozempic and GLP1 weight loss drugs are the AI of pharma. However, Bristol's two most recent significant acquisitions, Celgene for $74 billion and MyoKardia for $13 billion (2020), were for cancer and cardiovascular diseases. These are significant issues that will be generating significant profits for pharma giants for decades to come. But in an age when Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novartis (NVS) are seeing as much as 300% EPS growth in three years? BMY's patent cliff and several years of flat or negative sales and earnings growth give the market indigestion. Bristol's Patent Cliff Comes At A Time When Rivals Are Growing Earnings Like Nvidia  FAST Graphs, FactSetBut here's the good news about Bristol and why now might be the best time for high-yield income investors to consider buying. Bristol's Best Rallies Off Bear Market Lows Since 1985          Time Frame (Years) Annual Returns Total Returns   1 85% 85%   3 54% 268%   5 43% 503%   7 30% 519%   10 24% 743%   15 19% 1338%   Click to enlarge (Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium) Bristol isn't a broken company cursed with a horrible balance sheet, unsafe dividend, or terrible management team. For example, while BMY has its share of bad acquisitions, the consensus among 28 analysts that cover it for a living is that it has an excellent management team that makes smart long-term deals. FactSet Research TerminalThe current leverage ratio is elevated but falling steadily, even with the company's cash flows not growing. And those cash flows are not exactly falling off a cliff. FactSet Research TerminalBMY's annual free cash flow is expected to remain stable at around $13 billion over the coming years, compared to $4.9 billion in annual dividends. Analysts expect BMY, which hasn't cut its dividend since at least 1986 (almost 40 years) and has raised its dividend for 15 consecutive years, to grow it by almost 5% annually through 2029. Bristol's Net Debt Is Expected To Fall Steadily  FactSet Research TerminalAnalysts expect BMY's net debt to fall almost 50% by 2029 to just $18 billion. Rating agencies say the net debt/EBITDA ratio is 1.0 vs. three or less safe.   FactSet Research TerminalS&P rates BMY A stable, indicating an estimated 0.66% risk of bankruptcy over the next 30 years. The bond market is slightly more pessimistic, estimating about 1.8% risk, but still consistent with A-rated companies. The bankruptcy risk has been falling a bit over the last six months. In the last few weeks, it ticked up to just 0.3567% risk of default over the next five years. The patent cliff time frame. In other words, BMY is not a dying company. Bond Market Betting Billions That BMY Will Still Be Around In 2097 FactSet Research TerminalThe \"smart money\" bond market on Wall Street thinks BMY will overcome the patent cliff and is willing to bet billions that it will be around and paying its debts even in 73 years. It's facing the perfect storm of headwinds that management did not cause and is not to blame.  Management doesn't control interest rates. Nor is it what the market is obsessed with at any given time (GLP1 right now).  Historical Total Returns Since 1985 Portfolio Visualizer Premium BMY isn't a long-term market beater but has generated 5% to 6% long-term EPS growth over decades. That's due to a conservative corporate culture that makes smart acquisitions to overcome patent cliffs. What will BMY buy next? I can't tell you. But I can tell you that I'm confident it will not shrink forever, and the dividend track record indicates management doesn't either. I expect BMY to return to 5% to 6% EPS growth, generating 10% to 11% long-term returns for anyone who buys BMY today. But in the short term? FAST Graphs, FactSetIf BMY grows as expected, even with the patent cliff, and returns to a historical long-term fair value within the next three years (not a prediction it will) that represents a 154% upside to fair value potential. While those potential returns are speculative and might not happen, that 5%-plus safe yield is not speculative and continues to grow steadily each year. Something management is guiding will continue for the foreseeable future. As I like to say, the share price is vanity, cash flow is sanity, and dividends are reality. Zoetis: The King of Pet Drugs Is On Sale In 2013, Pfizer (PFE) spun off Zoetis as the world leader in pet drugs. Today, that market has grown to an estimated $34 billion, and ZTS has $9.2 billion of that market or 27% market share. StatistaZTS is a wide moat Ultra Sleep Well At Night or Ultra SWAN in an industry that has largely been ignored until the last few years. And why not? People in developed economies treat pets as family, especially among Millennials and Gen Zers (150 million Americans). In an economy where starting families with human children is often prohibitively expensive, \"fur babies\" are very popular. And the nature of pet medications is brilliant, as far as investors are concerned. Unlike human healthcare, which usually involves insurance companies and governments and involves many regulatory risks, pet medications are almost always cash payments. And because the industry is dominated by a handful of big names, primarily Zoetis and Merck (MRK), they have incredible pricing power in their supply chains. That's because the pet food and pet health industry have a highly fragmented supply chain, allowing ZTS to source its basic materials from numerous sources. However, since it has almost 30% market share for the entire globe, it has economies of scale in pricing power, allowing for some exceptional margins. YChartsMargins that don't require patent protection. There are no patent cliffs, no government price control risk, just a steadily growing high-margin market that ZTS dominates. FactSet Research TerminalZTS's free cash flow is expected to soar from $1.6 billion last year to $3.6 billion in 2028, or 18% annually. That's because those 18% free cash flow margins are expected to rise to 30%, nearly doubling. So if ZTS has no patent cliff risk, is the industry leader, has strong pricing power, incredible economies of scale, and a moat that's expected to get stronger in the coming years (as seen by rising margins), why is this incredible blue-chip trading at 52-week lows? FAST Graphs, FactSetZTS isn't just at a 52-week low, it's in a 40% bear market, the worst in its history. FAST Graphs, FactSetSo, what's the deal with Zoetis? How on earth is a company that dominates a rapidly growing, high-margin industry crash 40%? What's The Matter With Zoetis? Did Zoetis take on dangerous amounts of debt? Is that why the market hates it? FactSet Research TerminalNo, not at all. The leverage ratio is under 2, falling slowly, and S&P rates ZTS as BBB stable. 2028 net debt/EBITDA consensus 0.37, down from 1.0 today. So what's wrong with ZTS? Valuations Always Matter In The Long Term FAST Graphs, FactSetZTS saw its earnings growth almost quadruple during the Pandemic, as people worldwide adopted pets in record numbers. During the stimulus mania, the PE ratio soared to 52, similar to the PE of Pfizer and Bristol Myers during the tech bubble. Zoetis has always had a premium valuation; it has been well deserved. However, a 52 PE is a 63% historical premium to its objective market-determined historical fair value. For context, the S&P hit a forward PE of 25 or a 50% historical premium in March 2000, the peak of the tech bubble. Imagine if the S&P in the tech bubble had run up another 21% before peaking. That's the absurd valuation ZTS was trading at during its peak. Absurd valuation becomes attractive.  FAST Graphs, FactSetZTS is now trading at the lowest valuation since the market bottom of 2022 and the Pandemic lows. Is it as undervalued as BMY? Nope. But it represents a classic Buffett-style \"wonderful company at a fair price.\" Historically, ZTS is highly attractive, offering a 15% annual return potential for the next three years. Monster Beverage: The Best Stock Of The Last 20 Years Is On Sale Monster Beverage has been the top stock for the last 20 years. Charlie BilelloSince its 1995 IPO, MNST has been up over 3,300-fold. That's courtesy of a history of strong innovation in popular energy drinks, a savvy partnership with Coke starting in 2015, and an increasing portfolio of healthier options, including non-sugar and plant-based drinks. Historical Returns Since 1995  Portfolio Visualizer Premium But while turning $1 into $3,726 over 29 years is amazing—a Peter Lynch-like 33% annual return but for nearly 3X longer—don't forget that along the way to life-changing returns, MNST investors had to deal with an average annual volatility of 47%. Portfolio Visualizer Premium Portfolio Visualizer Premium Since its IPO, MNST has experienced at least 10 bear markets, falling 50%-plus at least three times. It's currently down 10%, merely a correction, something it has experienced with regularity since 1995. Portfolio Visualizer Premium It's sometimes spent as long as five years underwater, showing just the patience investors must tolerate with a hyper-volatile company like this. Monster Isn't Broken, It's Just Doing What It's Done For Three Decades FAST Graphs, FactSetMNST wasn't overvalued when it began this current correction. What about bad earnings news? Maybe it reported disastrous results that caused its earnings growth outlook to decrease significantly. FAST Graphs, FactSetFor 20 years, MNST has grown at 15%; in the long term, the median consensus of all 28 analysts covering it is 14% growth. Sales are expected to double in the next five years, and margins will remain stable, doubling EPS. FactSet Research TerminalWhile MNST has no credit rating, it has $3.3 billion in cash and no debt and generates $1.7 billion in annual free cash flow, which is expected to grow to $2.5 billion by 2028. By 2028, MNST's cash pile is expected to rise to over $6 billion, with no debt. Risks To Consider Anytime you buy an individual stock, you must remember two important things. Ritholtz Wealth Management The stock market's incredible record of profit compounding doesn't mean that undervalued stocks are all bargains. Even legendary companies can fail. Let's not forget that GM, the largest company in the world for decades, went bankrupt in the Great Recession. GFM Asset Management In 1980, IBM was the most valuable company and Kodak was the 10th most valuable, but it's now bankrupt. Heck, Sears used to be the sixth most valuable company in America, the Amazon of its day. It went bankrupt. K-mart was a dividend aristocrat who went bankrupt, was acquired by Sears, and then went bankrupt again. Wide Moat Research 44% of US stocks from 1980 to 2022 fell 70%-plus and never recovered, what JPMorgan calls \"permanent catastrophic declines.\" Depending on the sector you're investing in, it can be as bad as 65%. The tech sector that is so popular today has the majority of its stocks suffering permanent catastrophic declines. The point is that my analysis is always a snapshot in time. I'm careful to update each company before I present it as a recommendation, but sometimes a company that's down a lot becomes a value trap. YChartsEven dividend aristocrats and kings like Walgreens (WBA) and V.F. Corp. (VFC) can fail. Don't forget that Walmart was an aristocrat that went bankrupt twice. Don't buy companies with collapsing fundamentals that have little chance of recovering. Even if you pay 0.5X earnings for a stock (Russia's biggest bank after the invasion), you can still lose 100%. The bank is fine, and US investors lost 100% despite buying a 200% earnings yield. This rule of thumb has served me well, especially investors in general. Hartford FundsThe dividends of ZTS and BMY appear safe, but that might not always be the case. Bottom Line: Bristol, Zoetis, and Monster Beverage Are Blue-Chip Bargains To Consider With The Market Near Record Highs Bristol is in a 40% bear market due to patent cliffs and Wall Street's love of GLP1 weight loss drugs. Zoetis is in its worst bear market ever (also 40%) due to pandemic mania, which inflated a bubble that pushed its valuation to an absurd 62% premium. And Monster is just a hyper-volatile company that can fall 50% in a year even if its fundamentals are fully intact. I own about $8K worth of Bristol via ETFs, but if I were buying one of these stocks, I would select Zoetis. Morningstar  It's a stable, recession-resistant business model with high and rising margins and a lack of patent cliffs. It's an exceptionally well-managed Ultra SWAN that should be capable of 11% to 12% long-term total returns with a very low fundamental risk of permanent capital loss.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2432675437"}