Oz econ indicators: record low surplus spells budget trouble; housing approvals below target risk CPI hike

The Market Herald05-02

We’ve had two releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today which the ASX200 has largely ignored but which do give us ideas on where the future of the country is headed in the weeks ...

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Shipments increased only +0.1% compared to February, but an even more interesting statistic is what happened with exports.If the March data is anything to go by, that appears to be a prescient forecast.The second release we got from the ABS is March Building Approvals data.JP Morgan says that higher housing prices  will make Australian disinflation take a lot longer to tackle.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"themarketonline.com.au","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数","BOQ.AU":"BANK OF QUEENSLAND LTD","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数","BK7139":"区域性银行"},"translate_title":"奥兹经济指标：创纪录的低盈余意味着预算问题；住房批准低于目标风险CPI上涨","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BOQ.AU":1,"XAO.AU":0.9,"XJO.AU":0.9,"XKO.AU":0.9},"content_text":"We’ve had two releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today which the ASX200 has largely ignored but which do give us ideas on where the future of the country is headed in the weeks and months ahead.\nThe first is Australia’s International Trade in Goods data for March 2024, released on Thursday. \nThe balance on goods decreased by $1.567B in March compared to February – but this doesn’t spell the whole story.\nWhat we’re actually looking at is the lowest surplus on record since November 2020, which was the first year of COVID and around the time the world was getting plunged into lockdowns. Shipments increased only +0.1% compared to February, but an even more interesting statistic is what happened with exports. \nAustralian exports hit record highs in March of 2024, increasing +4.2% MoM to a value of $39.9B. \nWe get the next Federal budget on May 17, and Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has for months being warning Australians that lower iron ore prices and lower iron ore demand will hurt the Australian budget.\nIf the March data is anything to go by, that appears to be a prescient forecast.\nHousing data and CPI hike risk \nThe second release we got from the ABS is March Building Approvals data.\nTotal dwellings approved +1.9% in March after a decline of -0.9% in February. \nIn January, that figure was even lower at -2.5% – meaning that YTD dwelling approval growth actually remains contractionary. The ABS was quick to point out, however, that private approvals climbed +3.8%.\n“Approvals for private houses rose 3.8 per cent,” ABS construction stats chief Daniel Rossi said on Thursday – which omits that the growth rate in February was much higher, above +12%. This followed a January read of -9.9%.q\nPrivate attached dwellings, meanwhile, increased +3.6% in March – the weakest read since 2012. \nBut it was commentary from Oxford Economics which underscores why Australia’s housing market risks keeping CPI inflation down under higher for longer.\n“Total dwelling approvals are running at 161,527 annualised (original terms), a level well below what government is targeting as part of the Housing Accord,” Oxford Economics’ Senior Economist Maree Kilroy said.\n“It’s been a soft start for dwelling approvals in 2024, with just 38,471 dwellings.”\nThe less dwellings Aussies have to live in (either residential or commercial) means that a supply shortfall drives prices higher.\nThe ABS can confirm this: “The average approval value for a new house continued its annual rise in March 2024, to $468,800 per house,” Rossi added. \nThe Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ) revealed earlier this week that house prices increased +9% YoY across the nation. \nThe problem with that? \nJP Morgan says that higher housing prices (which are creating stickiness in services inflation) will make Australian disinflation take a lot longer to tackle.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2432969247"}