Viking Therapeutics: The Metabolic Masterpiece Primed To Be Acquired

seekingalpha05-09

Viking Therapeutics, a clinical-stage company focused on metabolic and endocrine disorders, is primed for acquisition due to its robust pipeline and potential as a market disruptor.The company's ...

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21:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4691236-viking-therapeutics-the-metabolic-masterpiece-primed-to-be-acquired><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Viking Therapeutics, a clinical-stage company focused on metabolic and endocrine disorders, is primed for acquisition due to its robust pipeline and potential as a market disruptor.The company's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4691236-viking-therapeutics-the-metabolic-masterpiece-primed-to-be-acquired\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0234570918.USD","symbol_name":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc 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overnight blockbusters. Weight loss drugs, including GLP-1 agonists, have become household names to help people combat obesity. The success of these drugs has caused a paradigm shift that is leading us into an anticipative era in metabolic medicine that has been dreamed about for decades. Metabolic juggernauts Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY), have benefited from being the early movers in this space with their GLP-1 drugs, Wegovy and Zepbound. The real-world success of these drugs has encouraged social media influencers to highlight these drugs in their posts, bringing an additional swell in demand. The Street has not overlooked the commercial promise of these drugs as NVO and LLY have surged over the past year. As a result, investors have rummaged through the healthcare sector looking for any ticker that is associated with a GLP-1 agonist or a weight loss drug that could take a slice of the estimated 2028 global obesity market of $131B. Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ:VKTX) is one of these high-flying weight loss tickers thanks to VK2735, the company’s GLP-1 and GIP receptor dual agonist that has the potential to be a best-in-class drug. Not only should investors consider these weight loss tickers, but also Big Pharma who still want to get involved in the market. I believe Viking is primed for acquisition following their impressive Phase II VENTURE data and recent Q1 earnings that revealed the company's pipeline is all ahead with a healthy cash position. First, I will provide some background on Viking Therapeutics and highlight notable updates from their recent earnings report. Then, I will discuss why Viking Therapeutics is primed to be acquired. Subsequently, I will point out risks that investors should consider when managing their VKTX position. Finally, I present my current plan for handling this volatile ticker. Viking Therapeutics is a clinical-stage company focused on therapies for metabolic and endocrine disorders. The company's robust pipeline comprises three compounds currently in clinical trials.   Viking Therapeutics Pipeline (Viking Therapeutics) Viking's VK2809 is an oral small molecule selective thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist for lipid and metabolic disorders. VK2809 is in a Phase IIb study for the treatment of biopsy-confirmed non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and fibrosis. Strong results from their Phase IIa trial for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and elevated LDL-C revealed significant reductions in LDL-C and liver fat content indicating its ability to be operative in a variety of metabolic patients. VK2735 is Viking’s novel GLP-1) and GIP receptor agonist that holds promise in an assortment of various metabolic disorders. Data for VK2735 administered subcutaneously for obesity, displayed a favorable safety profile along with several clinical benefits. In addition, Viking is pushing for an oral form of VK2735. In rare diseases, Viking is pushing VK0214, an orally available, small molecule selective thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist for X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (X-ALD). VK0214 is in Phase Ib for X-ALD patients with adrenomyeloneuropathy (AMN). Q1 Updates Viking's Q1 of 2024 was full of important clinical milestones, marking a critical period for their pipeline. Most importantly, VK2735’s positive data from the pivotal trials for obesity. Their Phase II VENTURE study showed statistically significant decreases in body weight across all doses of VK2735 versus placebo. Additionally, the company revealed Phase I trial data for the oral tablet form of VK2735, which could be a superior commercial product over the sub-q formulation. In addition, Viking completed the final biopsies in the Phase IIB VOYAGE study of VK2809 in NASH and fibrosis. The company expects histology data in the near term, which could validate VK2809's efficacy and safety profile in NASH, a disease that is desperate for a functioning therapeutic. Viking also noted that their ongoing Phase Ib trial of VK0214 in AMN in X-ALD patients has yielded an amiable safety profile and reductions in lipid levels. The company expects an update on this program mid-year. Interestingly, Viking appears to be reanimating a potent SARM compound, VK5211, to potentially tackle sarcopenia muscle loss. The company is assessing VK5211’s potential clinical significance of muscle loss, which could be a nice add-on considering the concerns about the loss of lean body mass associated with GLP-1 drugs. In terms of financials, Viking’s Q1 R&D expenses came in at $24.1M, and G&A expenses hit $10M. As a result, Viking reported a net loss of $27.4M, up from $19.5M in Q1 of 2023. Thankfully, Viking completed a public offering raising around $630M and bolstering their balance sheet to $963M. Looking ahead, Viking has scheduled engagements with the FDA to plan the next stages of development for VK2735 and VK2809, including the s Q1 R&D expenses came in at $24.1initiation of clinical trials later this year. Buyout Bull My view is that Viking Therapeutics is primed to be acquired by a Big Pharma company seeking to bolster their portfolios with metabolic drug candidates. Viking continues to hit milestones and enhance the value of its pipeline, and the rationale for an acquisition deal becomes increasingly convincing. Without a doubt, Viking's pipeline is its primary highlight due to the innovative drugs targeting metabolic disorders. Remember, the company’s pipeline has programs for obesity, NASH, X-ALD, and potentially sarcopenia. Not only do these drugs have some strong data and are expanding markets… but the pipeline is constructed to be a clean insert into an existing metabolic portfolio or be the add-on for a company looking to make their initial foray into that arena. Another point to consider about the pipeline is its goldilocks state of development. At the moment, Viking's lead candidates, VK2735 and VK2809, are heading towards their pivotal trials with competitive data. These programs have yet to confirm that they are ready for approval, yet, they are not early in development. So, a company looking to acquire Viking won’t have to pay an ultra-premium after a successful pivotal study, yet, is not looking to take a dice-roll on a Phase I candidate that is years from the finish line. By acquiring Viking, a big pharma player can take advantage of these breakthrough therapies in the coming years in a lucrative market segment. Furthermore, a potential suitor should consider pulling the trigger before the company can improve its negotiating power after pivotal trials, or a potential FDA approval. Moreover, Viking has roughly $963M in cash, so a suitor won’t be able to leverage a weak balance sheet and the need for more liquidity in their buyout discussions. Essentially, Viking’s negotiating power has the potential to surge as it moves closer to the finish line, so a suitor should consider knocking on the door sooner rather than later. Who Would Be Interested? Honestly, I think the list of potential suitors could be about every Big Pharma company. Indeed, some already have obesity products on the market, and some already have internal or partnered programs that they are working on. However, the metabolic disease market is expanding and the need for the first-in-class or best-in-class is critical for claiming market share. Viking’s pipeline programs can offer first-in-class or best-in-class designations, so even some of the more recognized players in the metabolic arena could be potential suitors. Personally, I think Pfizer (PFE) is a likely aspirant considering their failed efforts with lotiglipron and twice-daily danuglipron for obesity. Pfizer is still hoping that the once-daily dosing of danuglipron will produce positive results, but the data would have to be a stark contrast to the twice-daily readout. Pfizer expects the once-daily data to be ready for the first half of this year, so we should have an idea if Pfizer is still in the game. However, if the data is lackluster or still shows a high level of discontinuation rates, I would imagine they would consider Viking as a potential option to stay in contention in obesity rather than going back to the lab with danuglipron for a possible extended-release formulation to blunt the Cmax issues. Furthermore, Pfizer still has a decent cash position of $12.69B to help finance a potential deal for Viking. Another potential suitor could be Gilead (GILD), who has made some interesting moves lately with their acquisition of CymaBay (CBAY) for their liver disease therapeutics for $4.3B. Furthermore, Gilead’s NASH candidate, selonsertib, failed in their late-stage trial back in 2019, so perhaps there is some attraction there. Admittedly, Gilead might not have a huge appetite for M&A at the moment after that recent deal and their coffers have less than $5B in it. Still, Gilead might find it hard to pass on Viking considering how the latter’s pipeline would mesh well with their current fibrosis programs and efforts with NASH. Sanofi (SNY) could be interested in Viking Therapeutics as they look for an opportunity to enter the obesity drug space. The company had $9.4B in cash, so they might be willing to place a bid for Viking under the right circumstances. Bayer (OTCPK:BAYRY) (OTCPK:BAYZF) could be another intriguing suitor for Viking Therapeutics. Bayer continues to deal with the Monsanto Round-up ordeal, which could be a lingering concern and might question their willingness to write a hefty check for an M&A deal at the moment. However, the company still has $11.69B in cash, and a positive headline could be a big win for the C-Suite. Certainly, several other big names could be a long list of possible dealmakers looking to expand their footprint in metabolic disorders and help maintain a growth trajectory. Again, I can’t imagine there is a Big Pharma out there that is entirely disinterested in Viking Therapeutics. The big factor will be the cost… How Much Would It Cost? It is hard to determine how much Viking Therapeutics would demand considering their stage of development and bundled pipeline programs. Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) just made a deal for Carmot Therapeutics $2.7B for their GLP-1/GIP programs.   Carmot Therapeutics Pipeline (Carmot Therapeutics) It is important to note that Carmot’s obesity drug is a GLP-1/GIP agonist, which is the same dual agonist class as Viking’s VK2735. In addition, both Carmot and Viking are at the same phase of development for their obesity drugs. Indeed, Carmot is going after the weight loss for Type-2 Diabetes indication, but you can see the similarities. From my viewpoint, I think Viking should demand a higher valuation due to VK2809 for NASH and the oral formula of VK2735, as well as the other pipeline programs. Another obesity acquisition to reference is Eli Lilly’s $1.93B deal with Versanis Bio for their monoclonal antibody, Bimagrumab.   Versanis Bio Pipeline (Versanis Bio) Bimagrumab is an interesting compound that was originally developed by Novartis (NVS) for muscle-related indications but posted disappointing results. Versanis grabbed it off Novartis for $70M and was able to turn that into nearly $2B. In my opinion, the big allure for Bimagrumab is its ability to preserve muscle, while encouraging weight loss. However, Versanis appears to be a singular compound pipeline, which again, makes me believe Viking should demand a higher valuation. So how much for Viking? Well, at the moment, VKTX is trading around an $8.8B market cap, so that would have to be the starting point. It might be hard to believe Viking could demand a higher price point than the previous obesity deals mentioned above, however, there is a lot of money being thrown around to win the arms race in obesity. Novo Holdings is looking to acquire Catalent (CTLT) for $16.5B. Novo Holding is then going to sell three fill-and-finish plants to Novo Nordisk for $11B to help bring their GLP-1 production in-house. Admittedly, Catalent manufactures a broad array of drugs outside obesity drugs. However, the reporting around the deal points to Novo wanting Catalent’s plants that deal with Ozempic/Wegovy GLP-1 production. Yes, I know that the Novo/Catalent deal is for manufacturing sites and not for the rights of pipeline programs, but it does show you how much a company is willing to invest in this arms race for the obesity market. Keep in mind, Novo Nordisk reported that Ozempic/Wegovy sales accounted for almost $14B in 2023 and the company recently reported that Wegovy Q1 sales doubled year-over-year. Some Street analysts have Eli Lilly’s Zepbound reaching $25B-$48B in peak sales. For Viking, William Blair’s Andy Hsieh projects VK2735's peak sales could hit $14.4B in the U.S. and an additional $7.2B in Europe. Again, VKTX’s market cap is around $8.8B, so the projected peak sales figures of over $21B, which would be around a 0.4x forward price-to-sales… just for VK2735 peak sales. The industry’s average price-to-sales is about 4x-5x, suggesting potential for substantial revenue growth compared to the company's current market value without including any potential sales from the company’s other pipeline programs. Using the industry’s average price-to-sales of 4x-5x, a proper valuation for $21B in peak sales would be $84B-$105B. Again… this is just for VK2735. Indeed, we don’t if VK2735 or any of Viking’s other pipeline programs will make it through the FDA and will hit the market. Furthermore, we do not know if Viking is even considering a buyout, or if another company is looking to make a deal at this time. However, if there is going to be a negotiation, I think Viking has a case for premium valuation that is higher than any other obesity M&A deal thus far. Risks To The Buyout Play Investors looking to get into VKTX at this time must accept that the ticker is trading at an ultra-premium valuation based on a projection that either they will be able to be a market disruptor, or that they are a prime acquisition target for Big Pharma. Certainly, I just laid out a case for Viking to be a juggernaut in the metabolic arena, but an $8.8B market cap with no approved drugs and less than a billion dollars in the bank is a risk if VK2735 reports lackluster data in the coming years. Another concern is that weight loss and obesity space might get very crowded in the coming years. It appears that VK2735 might have some competition with thirteen weight loss drugs expected to hit the market by 2029. So, those peak sales estimates might take a hit if VK2735 cannot report strong enough data to discern from the other contenders. Lastly, Viking might not want to be acquired unless they get a valuation that is too good to pass up. In the company’s latest earnings call, they mentioned that they intend to proceed with a Phase IIb study for VK2735, with plans for potential partnerships contingent upon trial outcomes. Yes, that could be the company just discussing the possibility of a partnership and the potential timing of one. However, that might be the extent of their willingness to let another party have a piece of VK2735. A strategic partnership might squash the buyout thesis, or at least push the potential timeline back. Since VKTX is currently trading at a premium price, it is possible one of these risks could have a dramatic impact on the share price and could put a lid on the ticker for a prolonged period of time. Premium Plans In my previous Viking Therapeutics article, I revealed that my VKTX investment strategy needed to be adjusted following the VK2735 data and subsequent developments. Previously, my Buy and Sell Targets were set at $12.25 and $34 per share respectively, but they needed to be revised following the market’s reaction to the data. I moved my new Buy Target up to around $40 per share, but now that has been upgraded to $55.50 per share after the market changed the ticker’s technical analysis. I am aware that VKTX is trading around $78 per share at the moment, so it is possible that the ticker won’t return to the $55.50 level, however, I am not willing to ruin my “House Money” position over buyout speculation at the moment.   VKTX Daily Chart (Trendspider) Therefore, I am going to stick to my system and will monitor the ticker’s habits to determine if I have to make adjustments to my target prices. In terms of Sell Targets, I am not looking to sell any of my remaining shares due to my expectations that the company will be able to produce a drug rivaling or surpassing the clinical marks of Wegovy and Zepbound. Additionally, I believe that the buyout speculation will persist as long as the obesity market and marketed products continue to show growth.  In the long term, I am still confident that Viking will become a leader in addressing the metabolic market with market-disrupting products for NASH and obesity. 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