April Inflation Expected to Keep Early Fed Cuts Unlikely -- Market Talk

Dow Jones05-10

1203 ET - U.S. consumer price data due Wednesday is likely to show U.S. inflation moderated last month, but not enough to alter the path of monetary policy, Bank of America economists say in a note. They see core monthly CPI slowing to 0.28% from the 1Q average of 0.37%. While it would be "a noticeable moderation," it won't be enough to convince the Fed that inflation is falling toward the 2% target, BofA says. "A report in line with our expectations would not shift our thinking on Fed policy," which is an initial interest rate cut in December. But if inflation turns up hotter, it could lower the likelihood of a December cut, BofA says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 09, 2024 12:04 ET (16:04 GMT)

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While it would be \"a noticeable moderation,\" it won't be enough to convince the Fed that inflation is falling toward the 2% target, BofA says. \"A report in line with our expectations would not shift our thinking on Fed policy,\" which is an initial interest rate cut in December. But if inflation turns up hotter, it could lower the likelihood of a December cut, BofA says. 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They see core monthly CPI slowing to 0.28% from the 1Q average of 0.37%. While it would be \"a noticeable moderation,\" it won't be enough to convince the Fed that inflation is falling toward the 2% target, BofA says. \"A report in line with our expectations would not shift our thinking on Fed policy,\" which is an initial interest rate cut in December. But if inflation turns up hotter, it could lower the likelihood of a December cut, BofA says. 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While it would be \"a noticeable moderation,\" it won't be enough to convince the Fed that inflation is falling toward the 2% target, BofA says. \"A report in line with our expectations would not shift our thinking on Fed policy,\" which is an initial interest rate cut in December. But if inflation turns up hotter, it could lower the likelihood of a December cut, BofA says. 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