Palantir: Absorbing AI Tailwinds

seekingalpha05-21

Palantir continues to demonstrate strength across all crucial financial and business metrics, indicating that the company is capitalizing well on positive secular shifts.Palantir's operating leverage ...

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KSR
05-21
KSR
👌
KSR
05-21
KSR
It's a well explained point of view and very well detailed for someone and is a valueable asset for those who are in between ages 25 and 34. Surely a very good asset for retirement planning. It is a long term investment.

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The stock plunged by around 10% since my previous analysis was published and some readers might think that I was wrong. However, it is important to accept Palantir's extreme volatility, which is inherent for any young growth company. I prefer to look at the company's fundamentals and developments over the last quarter suggest that fundamentals are fortifying. Palantir demonstrates strong U.S. Commercial revenue growth and its operating income trendline looks exponential. Palantir's great potential to become a leading AI data analytics solution is underscored by its strategic partnership with OpenAI. Moreover, the stock currently trades with a 35% discount. All these positive catalysts make me reiterate my 'Strong Buy' rating for PLTR.Fundamental analysisThe most crucial development that happened over the last three months was the Q1 earnings release. Palantir delivered a solid 20.8% YoY revenue growth together with a one cent adjusted EPS growth. These results were above consensus expectations, which should add optimism to investors.Q1 earnings presentationStrong revenue performance helped to expand PLTR's operating margin once again, from 0.78% to 12.7% YoY. The efficiency was gained not at the expense of R&D spending, since the R&D to revenue ratio remained slightly above 17%, signaling high-quality of the operating margin improvement. The operating income trajectory above looks quite impressive, in my opinion.A 20.8% YoY revenue growth was mostly fueled by the strength in Commercial segment, especially the U.S. Commercial. According to the Q1 earnings call transcript, the management is determined to continue relentlessly pursuing new U.S. customer acquisitions and cross-sell new features and capabilities, especially powered by the company's AI Platform ('AIP'). I think that the management's plans to expand the customer base are doable, given a massive 69% YoY and 19% QoQ customer count increase in Q1. The management also sees solid international expansion opportunities for its Commercial business.Q1 earnings presentationDuring the second quarter 2024 the management expects PLTR to generate around $650 million revenue, signaling a 22% YoY revenue growth. This, Q2 is poised to become the fifth straight quarter of revenue growth acceleration, another robust catalyst. For the 2024 full year, the management forecasts to generate around $2.68 billion in revenue, signaling a robust 20% growth compared to FY 2023.Q1 earnings presentationOperating leverage improvements are also expected. The management expects adjusted income from operations to be around $870 million for the full year, signaling a 32.4% margin. In FY 2023, Palantir's adjusted operating margin was 28%. The four-percentage points expansion in operating profitability is a solid improvement, in my opinion.Improving operating leverage also contributes to Palantir's financial power, a crucial fundamental criterion. The company ended Q1 with $3.9 billion in cash, which was another quarter of the cash balance growth. Total debt is insignificant compared to the outstanding cash balance. Moreover, total debt is consistently decreasing. Palantir's fortress balance sheet is another reason why I am bullish because firm financial position is a crucial pillar for building future growth potential through investments in R&D or strategic acquisitions.Yahoo FinanceHaving a clean balance sheet is crucial for Palantir because I see great potential for the company's AIP offering. Palantir constantly improves this product and there is even a separate page on the company's website, which tracks all upgrades to the platform. The fascinating fact is that new features are rolled out every single month.The product is gaining momentum and at the March 2024 AIP Conference Palantir unveiled more than 20 new AIP customers, including large public companies like Lowe's (LOW), General Mills (GIS), and Lennar (LEN). What is the most impressive is that OpenAI, the company, which is at the forefront of the AI revolution, was also unveiled as AIP's customer. This fact speaks volumes about the technological edge of Palantir's AIP.Precedence ResearchI am paying a lot of attention to AIP because I consider it to be the company's major star over the long term. As mentioned earlier, AIP's technological edge is recognized by OpenAI, the pioneering generative AI company. Data analytics market is expected to compound with a 29.4% CAGR between 2023 and 2032, a massive industry tailwind for PLTR. Having a competitive advantage in the form of cutting-edge AI capabilities increases chances for Palantir to capitalize on this rapid industry growth.Valuation analysisThe share price's last 52-week range is wide, spanning from $11.4 to $27.5. PLTR is currently closer to the higher edge of this edge. Stock's performance in 2024 is robust with a 26% YTD rally.PLTR's valuation ratios are extremely high, especially the P/E ratio. Even if the company sustains close to 20% annual EPS growth, the FY 2027 forward P/E ratio is still far above 30. This might indicate that the market's expectations around the stock are hot.SAOn the other hand, the P/E ratio is not the best option for growth stocks, because it is unlikely that the company will go out of business after FY 2027. Therefore, we have to incorporate the effect of growth beyond FY 2027. The discounted cash flow ('DCF') gives us the opportunity to assess the company's valuation with incorporating long-term growth prospects.Therefore, I am running a DCF model with a 10% WACC. Due to PLTR's robust exposure to the AI revolution, I give it an 8% constant growth rate because I believe that this secular trend is massive. Moreover, Palantir demonstrates impressive growth and profitability. Therefore, the company has chances to repeat the growth trajectory of the most successful technological companies over the last several decades. Below companies delivered double-digit revenue CAGR over the last three decades. Therefore, an 8% constant growth rate does not look impossible, in my opinion.Compiled by the authorFor the shorter horizon of revenue planning, I rely on consensus estimates for FY 2024-2025. I think that a sample of 17 Wall Street analysts is representative enough to rely on consensus. For years after 2025 I incorporate a steady one percentage point per year growth deceleration. We saw Palantir's impressive operating income curve in my Fundamental analysis. Therefore, it is fair to expect that the company will be able to expand its FCF margin at least by one percentage point every year. For the base year, the FCF margin is 33.4%, TTM levered FCF margin provided by Seeking Alpha. There are 2.23 billion PLTR shares outstanding.Calculated by the authorThe fair share price is $32, 35% higher than the market price. The upside potential is compelling, in my opinion.Mitigating factorsMy analysis suggests that Palantir's fundamentals improved since my previous analysis. However, the stock price moved in the opposite direction since late February. The situation is common for all aggressive growth companies like Palantir, and I recommend investors to focus on fundamentals and try to ignore the noise around the stock. It might be a difficult task for investors who are not ready to see drawdowns in this position. The stock is extremely volatile, which is underscored by the above 2 market beta. Therefore, I want to warn investors that investing in Palantir without having a long-term mindset is an extremely risky endeavor.Data by YChartsPalantir's impressive dynamic across key financial and operating metrics is solid evidence that the business strategy is sound, and its execution is excellent. However, some management's one-off decisions are quite questionable. According to the source, the company invested in about two dozen early-stage companies in 2021, which led to more than $300 million in P&L impairment charges. As I mentioned in my fundamental analysis, PLTR's fortress balance sheet is one of the reasons why I am bullish. On the other hand, these questionable investments of PLTR in 2021 increases risks of new failures if the company decides to allocate its cash pile to new ventures. Therefore, we need to hope that lessons were learned, and the management will not make the same mistakes again.ConclusionPalantir's fundamentals keep expanding with a rapid pace, which is evident from above 20% YoY revenue growth and operating income growing exponentially. The company has a great potential to capitalize on the thriving data analytics industry with its unmatched AI-powered platform, AIP. The valuation is extremely attractive as well.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":308358913532176,"gmtCreate":1716304881027,"gmtModify":1716304884090,"author":{"id":"4121076730674632","authorId":"4121076730674632","name":"KSR","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4121076730674632","authorIdStr":"4121076730674632"},"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/308358913532176","repostId":2437128924,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":308359294726232,"gmtCreate":1716304871280,"gmtModify":1716304875696,"author":{"id":"4121076730674632","authorId":"4121076730674632","name":"KSR","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4121076730674632","authorIdStr":"4121076730674632"},"htmlText":"It's a well explained point of view and very well detailed for someone and is a valueable asset for those who are in between ages 25 and 34. 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It is a long term investment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/308359294726232","repostId":2437128924,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2437128924"}