HSBC recommends where to invest globally with stocks set to rise under two scenarios

seekingalpha05-21

Even with uncertainty dominating the macro environment, global stocks are set to rise under Goldilocks and stagflation scenarios, HSBC Securities said in recommending where investors should steer ...

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Among its recommendations, the firm stayed overweight in U.S. stocks and upgraded U.K. stocks to neutral from underweight. Overall, HSBC still favors cyclical stocks, with its core overweight including tech and consumer.  Goldilocks scenario: The firm sees global equities rising another 7% in 2024 and delivering a 15% annual return in 2025. “While rate reductions might be delayed, the precise timing of the Fed initial easing is less critical for equities,” Alastair Pinder, head of global equity strategy at HSBC Securities, said in a research note Monday. HSBC expects a Fed rate cut of 25 BP in 2024 and a cut of 75 BP in 2025. “This environment of Fed easing and robust economic growth should support equities: historically, the S&P 500 (SP500)(IVV) (VOO) has surged an average of 22% from the time the Fed halts hikes to six months after rate cuts begin, provided a recession doesn’t immediately follow.”  Stagflation: Stocks under more volatile conditions would be broadly flat for the rest of 2024 amid Fed uncertainty, but drive 10% higher next year as markets gain greater clarity and earnings continue to deliver. U.S. earnings are less sensitive to higher rates thanks to extensive debt restructuring since the global financial crisis, Pinder said. Recession: Global equities would decline by ~10%, in line with the historical trajectory during a shallow recession. Equities could quickly recover if central banks work fast to cut rates. The odds of a recession arriving within a year are low, at 30%, but certain dangers remain. The yield curve is still “markedly inverted,” and the U.S. presidential election is ahead, set for November.  The U.S. market and sectors including tech, materials, and consumer discretionary offer the most favorable risk/reward. “In contrast, equities in Canada and Japan, alongside Financials and Health Care, look less attractive according to our model.”  The U.K. market provides a “good and cheap source” of defensive, commodity and yield exposure as investors head into a more volatile H2. Developed Asia ex Japan was upgraded to overweight from neutral. Canada was downgraded to underweight. HSBC remained underweight in Europe and Japan.  Here are some ETFs to track moves in global markets:   Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF (VXUS) Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ) Fidelity International Index Fund No Load (FSPSX) SPDR Portfolio MSCI Global Stock Market ETF (SPGM)","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2437480852"}