AUD/USD Can Rise Modestly in Coming Months -- Market Talk

Dow Jones05-24

2214 GMT - The AUD is the third best performing G10 currency against the USD this year, and Commerzbank thinks it can still move higher. "We continue to feel comfortable with our forecast that the RBA will not cut rates for the first time until quite late this year," Commerzbank says, highlighting the November meeting as a reasonable starting point. Even after that, the RBA is likely to cut rates slowly. "This should continue to support the Aussie," Commerzbank says. Still, sentiment should turn around by the year-end at the latest. Commerzbank expects a short period of weakness in the U.S. economy, followed by a fairly strong turnaround. So, the Fed is likely to cut rates only slightly next year, contrary to market expectations. Commerzbank sees AUD/USD at 0.67 at end-December, from 0.6606 currently. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 23, 2024 18:14 ET (22:14 GMT)

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Even after that, the RBA is likely to cut rates slowly. \"This should continue to support the Aussie,\" Commerzbank says. Still, sentiment should turn around by the year-end at the latest. Commerzbank expects a short period of weakness in the U.S. economy, followed by a fairly strong turnaround. So, the Fed is likely to cut rates only slightly next year, contrary to market expectations. Commerzbank sees AUD/USD at 0.67 at end-December, from 0.6606 currently. 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