Sandstorm Gold: Potential Additional Upside But First, A Lower Price

seekingalpha05-23

Sandstorm Gold Ltd. receives a 'Hold' rating for its shares on the NYSE market.The stock is expected to continue its upward trend due to its positive correlation with the bullish gold spot price.SAND ...

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This analysis is about Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (NYSE:SAND) (TSX:SSL:CA) and a 'Hold' rating is once again assigned to the stock trading on the NYSE market, following the same rating assigned in the previous analysis. Since the previous \"Hold\" rating: Here's how SAND fared amid changes in the Gold price In the previous analysis, Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (hereafter \"SAND\") shares were expected to experience a period of neutrality without significant ups and downs as uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move was driven by mixed economic signals. Although a sharp decline in the market price of SAND shares actually took its reign, not a neutral stance as the first step in an expected trading path, a descending phase to more appealing stock price levels was nevertheless correctly predicted in the previous analysis. Contrary to interest rate traders' expectations, given the situation, the time was not seen as ripe for the Fed to cut interest rates in March 2024, but a continuation of “higher-for-longer” monetary policy instead appeared more likely. The Fed actually kept interest rates unchanged as expected by previous analysis, which, judging by the course that SAND shares took in the aftermath, created great disillusionment not only among interest rate traders but also among advocates of gold instead of US Treasuries. High interest rates favor U.S. Treasury bonds, which pay interest income based on a fixed interest rate, but not the yellow metal, which pays no income. And then the bullish sentiment toward investing in gold faded a bit, sending SAND stock into a steep downward trend. But with gold's safe-haven outlook still resilient, signaled by central banks purchasing to hedge against various macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds (later identified in China’s and other overseas bankers), SAND share prices falling so low in a very short time also represented a very attractive market proposal. After all, if one were looking for signs that could predict a significant rise in the price of gold - as this indeed happened - the purchases of bars by the central bankers, which are among the best in the market as financiers of the demand for gold, were at strong disposal of the propaganda in favor of the precious metal against US Treasuries. At the time of writing, the stock price of SAND is up more than 50 percent from its $3.96/share 52-week low between mid-February and late February 2024 on the back of a rising gold price driven by safe-haven demand from foreign central banks. SAND stock is poised to continue its Upward trend As its shares are highly correlated with the Gold Spot Price (XAUUSD:CUR) and in a positive manner, an expected further bullish sentiment on gold prices puts them on track to continue feeding the long-term uptrend, which since the previous rating has resulted in a gain of +27.01% (or +27.46% with dividend yield) outperforming the S&P 500 +8.75 percent. In the lower part of the following chart, the full yellow area curve describes the relationship between the SAND share price (blue line) and the gold spot price or XAUUSD:CUR (light yellow line) indicating a strong and positive correlation between the two assets, as the yellow area curve has been over zero for almost all of the last 5 years. Source: Seeking Alpha The strong positive correlation suggests that SAND shares will most likely also be affected by bullish sentiment when gold prices are in an uptrend as they are currently and expected to be in the upcoming months. An increasingly uncertain global environment and changing interest rate cut expectations will be the two key bullish catalysts for gold as a safe-haven asset for portfolios or as a rival asset to US Treasuries. These factors will drive market interest in Sandstorm Gold as revenues, a key share price driver, will receive a boost from equivalent gold royalty ounces prone to appreciation amid bullish gold prices. To maximize the benefit of the highlighted tailwinds, the idea in these analyses is to change the position in SAND depending on the expectations for the spot price of gold. The more gold equivalent SAND company can sell the better, but as just seen, the next gold price is a crucial matter. The market has the following in mind and is therefore attracted by the possibility that an increase in the price of the yellow metal could have more than an offsetting effect with favorable consequences for revenues, even if the mines do not perform as expected. Greater Focus on SAND in the Current Scenario Diverts Some Market Attention away from Pure Gold Diggers Investors are aware that an uncertain global environment bodes well for gold prices, as the increased risk aversion they perceive enhances the metal's safe-haven portfolios, which has a positive knock-on effect on gold demand. This headwind can cause problems for mine operators, and there is also the other side of the coin to be aware of. The current uncertainty in the global scenario creates the conditions for potential inflationary pressures, political or social instability, transportation problems, or even a sudden change in mining legislation in the host country in retaliation for geopolitical tensions. Unfortunately for those operating in the exploration and mining gold industry, mineral resources are concentrated in economies that are highly exposed to the consequences of an unstable situation worldwide, and as if that were not enough, in most cases these areas are not free from geophysical threats either. In addition, mining resources are depleting, and operators have to dig deeper and deeper to extract the yellow metal, leading to ever-increasing costs. The most advanced technology available allows operators to keep costs under control but, beyond a certain limit, which is approaching at a rate of from one year to the next as new potential at depth keeps on being discovered by explorations, the cost of mining gold is increasing significantly with the following statistics providing evidence through the average All-In-Sustaining Cost per ounce (or \"AISC/oz): In 2022, AISC peaked at $1,276/ounce. The AISC then rose further to $1,289/oz in early 2023, driven by gold mineral activity becoming increasingly expensive across the board. Additionally, the average AISC for all global mining companies was $1,315 per ounce in the second quarter of 2023. Plus, not surprisingly, as it provides a reliable sign of depletion of metal deposits given North American countries' long history of gold mining activities, the average AISC for all North American mining companies was $1,523 per ounce in the second quarter of 2023, significantly above the global average. So if gold prices are on the rise, these can really reinforce the bullish market sentiment on SAND stock that doesn’t bear mining costs, and in light of a very positive correlation with the movement of gold prices, the investor may want to combine the underlying Hold rating with a strategy that attempts to exploit the cyclicality of gold. How SAND delivers if backed by Bullish Gold Buoyed by the positive sentiment on the yellow metal, quarterly revenue results that significantly improved period-on-period or topped consensus proved to be an effective share price driver after Q4 2023 results on February 15, 2024, with shares up 47% and Q1 2024 results on May 2, 2024, with shares up 8% as of this writing. Being exempt from many operating costs allows SAND better than any other operator to take advantage of rising gold prices and help the results of the quarter if the period is not favorable in terms of ounces. So, the market of SAND stock strongly welcomes an upward trend in gold prices. For the fourth quarter of 2023, SAND reported revenue of $44.5 million, an increase of 16% year-over-year, driven by a 6.9% increase in attributable gold equivalent ounces of 23,250 ounces, coupled with a higher average realized selling price of gold. This is what happened to gold prices in the last quarter of 2023: Expectations of interest rate cuts in March 2024, plus “enormous, unrelenting demand for gold from overseas” and buoyed by safe-haven flows during the Israel-Hamas war, the metal price rose to a record high in late December 2023, helping SAND achieve its “higher average realized sales price of gold.” These factors resulted in a 22% year-over-year increase in cash flow from operating activities to $36.5 million and a positive turnaround in net income to $24.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to a net loss of $2.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. For the first quarter of 2024, SAND reported revenue of $42.8 million, down a slight 3% year-over-year, on a significant 28.4% year-over-year decline in attributable gold equivalent volume of 20,316 ounces. However, thanks to a 10% increase in gold's average realized sales price, SAND revenues could still beat the consensus by as much as $1.4 million, providing shares with a tailwind on the NYSE. During the quarter, gold prices got a boost to near record high as the Fed confirmed three quarter-point rate cuts by 2024 year-end in its March meeting forecast and markets breathed a sigh of relief over fears the central bank would cut rates just twice as inflation proved more stubborn than expected. Cash flow from operating activities decreased 18.8% year-over-year to $32.4 million and the company reported a net loss of $3.9 million, compared to a net profit of $15.6 million in the same quarter in 2023. However, what contributed negatively to the comparison between the 2 first quarters were a one-time contractual payment in 2023 which fueled Q1 2023 net income, and a loss of $9.2 million in Q1 2024 due to unfavorable changes in the value of certain company's investments in debt securities. These are one-off factors or temporary, short-term negative changes in the asset value that the SAND stock market does not seem to give much weight to. The portfolio, which includes some well-known assets in the global gold mining and exploration industry, as the previous article has highlighted, underperformed from the last quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, but it must be said that this was due to events that the company had anticipated. These were the transition of Mexican production at the Santa Elena mine to deposits not covered by SAND's royalty share and the partial royalty divestiture last year, which reduced SAND's royalty share of the Antamina mine in Peru. The rest of the portfolio tried to offset these operational issues as follows: With higher ounces of gold equivalent from The Black The Fox mine in Ontario, as well as higher ounces of metal from “streams and royalties on mines in other countries”. In Q4 2023, South America contributed 43.5% of the total gold equivalent ounces, North America 34.5%, while other countries accounted for 22%. In Q1 2024, South America contributed 45% of the total gold equivalent ounces, North America 28.3%, while other countries accounted for 26.7%. Sandstorm Gold is not a gold producer but is nevertheless in the gold exploration and mining industry from which it receives its royalties in gold equivalent ounces. These royalties, acquired in exchange for upfront payments to support the construction of mines by other operators worldwide, represent a percentage of the other operators' production of gold equivalent ounces, which are then resold in the market. In addition to gold production, the gold equivalent takes into account the conversion of ounces of silver to ounces of gold metal based on the market prices of the two commodities, as mining operators generally produce silver together with gold. Unlike pure-play gold mining companies such as Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD), (ABX:CA), Newmont Corporation (NEM) (NGT:CA), Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) (AEM:CA) or Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) (K:CA), just to name a few, the giants, Sandstorm does not bear the costs associated with the exploration and mining of the precious metal rather the expenses to supply the market with precious metal. The Outlook for SAND shares Looking forward, it makes perfect sense to continue to hold shares of SAND as the company has reiterated its guidance for attributable gold equivalent ounces (or \"GEOs\") within the next 5 years forecasting to benefit from 125,000 GEOs, while the prospects for gold prices are robust according to market participants. At the end of 2023, Ryan McIntyre, managing partner at Sprott, cited high US debt and fiscal deficit as strong preconditions for an overall upward trend in gold prices over the next five years. This view is supported by this analysis, which sees US President Joe Biden's sweeping new tariffs on massive imports of Chinese products announced recently as a signal that US accounts need to be strengthened in the face of the high level of debt. The US public debt, the ceiling of which is increasingly being debated in the US Congress, has left the US economy more exposed to global macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, as seems the case also with the European accounts, which the European Central Bank warned have become much more vulnerable with higher levels of debt than before the Covid-19 crisis. Recently, other gold market analysts have also argued that by fueling strong demand for gold as a safe haven, the following factors are seen driving higher gold prices over the long term. These are an increased risk of geopolitical tensions making market participants feel the global scenario more uncertain than normal, and central banks’ restrictive monetary policies along with inflation, which hampers economic growth. It is not possible to predict what the price of gold will be in the next 5 years given the volatility of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors but based on the characteristics of the current global scenario, the price of gold will likely continue its long-term positive trend in the upcoming years as well. In the short term, SAND forecasts that it will benefit from lower gold-equivalent ounces of 75,000 to 90,000 ounces throughout 2024 than last year's range of 90,000 to 100,000 ounces, but with its offsetting effects, the expected bullish sentiment around gold - in line with the aftermath of SAND’s Q1 2024 Quarterly Results for shares – is on track to continue to catalyze significant attention in the SAND stock market, helping shares trade higher. The Share Price: A More Attractive Share Price Could Be on the Horizon The SAND stock price is trading at $5.90/share on the NYSE for a market capitalization of $1.80 billion at the time of writing, and these levels are not low compared to recent trends: shares are very close to the upper limit of the 52- week range of $3.96 to $6.07 and is well above the MA Ribbon. Source: Seeking Alpha Also, the 14-day relative strength indicator of 61.47 says that room for further upside is limited from current levels and that shares are likely to pull back somewhat before continuing the uptrend. Shares may be looking at lower levels going forward as, after hitting new record highs on the back of the sustained rally over the past few weeks, gold prices are now seen in need of a technical pullback amid some profit-taking by short-term futures traders, not considered unusual either at this point. Unfavorable trades on gold futures markets are now being triggered by the headwinds that it might take more time than initially expected for the Federal Reserve to be confident that the inflation is returning to the 2% target. Should the Fed in response keep the federal funds rate higher for longer, this scenario would not bode well for gold prices as a high yield environment discourages demand for non-income producing physical gold as investors will be more focused on US Treasuries which pay instead an interest income based on a fixed rate. Due to their positive correlation with gold prices, the same downward pressure is likely to be exerted on SAND shares. On top of this, given the risk that the upcoming summer vacation poses to inflation -- people typically spend more on vacation -- the Fed will want to assess the impact. If this changes the expectation of when interest rates will be lowered, the price of gold will be affected. An intensification of Fed concerns over summer holiday spending slowing inflation back to 2% could potentially necessitate delaying the first rate cut until after June/July 2024, creating near-term hurdles to gold prices and SAND stock prices on their upward trajectory, perhaps an opportunity for more convenient share price levels. Therefore, investors may just want to hold on to SAND stock for the time being. The stock paid a quarterly dividend of CA$2 cents/share on April 26, 2024, resulting in a TTM yield of 1.01%. The same considerations apply to shares of Sandstorm Gold Ltd. under the symbol SSL:CA on the TSX: they were trading at CA$8.07/share at the time of writing, for a market capitalization of CA$2.40 billion. The shares are trading well above the level of late February 2024, as well as the MA Ribbon. Shares are also closer to the upper limit than the lower limit of the 52-week range of CA$5.36 to CA$8.29.   Source: Seeking Alpha The 14-day RSI of 62.04 suggests there is plenty of room for SSL:CA shares to pull back from these levels in the near term under downward pressure from the Fed's \"higher for longer\" stance affecting gold prices. Conclusion For Sandstorm Gold Ltd. or SAND, a more attractive share price could be on the horizon. This is a gold royalty company, not a mine operator, but depends on the performance of the mines. Therefore, the risks of the mining industry are also transferred to SAND, as they can be translated into lower gold equivalent ounce or GEO, measured royalties. However, if gold prices perform as well as they currently do, SAND stock prices can also afford a slight deterioration in portfolio performance as the market remained bullish despite lower GEOs in the first quarter of 2024. Plus, through the “buy-the-dip” strategy, the correlation with gold price cyclicality enables risk mitigation much more effectively than any other pure gold mining stock. A higher gold price has a greater impact on SAND's profitability than a gold mining company because SAND revenues demonstrate a key share price driver already, while for the miners the market is more willing to assess them after costs. As a gold royalty company, SAND does not incur mining and exploration costs which, among other things, are becoming increasingly expensive around the world.  Going forward, the gold price is seen reaching even more prestigious targets driven by investors' need to protect portfolios from risk and uncertainty, while SAND has confirmed its medium to long-term GEO forecast despite lower ounces in Q1-2024. More upside potential for SAND shares is then on the horizon, but not before technical setbacks and the Fed's concern over sticky inflation affecting gold prices have created an opportunity for lower stock price levels. 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