Not Impressed By Either Of The Stories That Have Been Powering XLU

seekingalpha05-23

There are two sets of stories driving Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF's rally.One involves the potential for interest rates to fall.The other involves the soaring demand for electric power due ...

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As a traditional income play, falling interest rates would help utility stocks, and of course, the flagship utility ETF, XLU. 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I don't need to recite the full litany of changes. It's too obvious. But there is one point worth noting now. Utilities stocks have come a long way. I and other Value Line rookies hid and/or prayed when Associate Research Director LK was assigning utility stocks for coverage. These were beyond boring. WM, a senior analyst who, for whatever reason, chose to be the primary utility analyst told us \"Anybody who could draw a line using a straight edge (ruler) can forecast utilities.\" (There were no personal computers. We drew \"basic charts\" by hand.) We were skeptical. But wanted to test his methodology. Sadly, I got stuck with some utilities. WM was more-or-less right. Fortunately for my sanity, I was able to persuade LK to reassign my utilities as soon as more newcomers came aboard. (I guess that was the closest Value Line came to rookie hazing.) So who knew back then utilities would later become interesting, or dare I say, exciting? Energy deregulation, shopping around for power, competition, mergers, and eventually, super-scandal in a utility-like area... See, e.g., Enron. So I shouldn't really be too shocked seeing that the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLU) has been on a tear this spring. It's up 15% since April 16th. That's not exciting by overall stock-market standards. But by utility standards, it's quite eye-catching. Notice the rally pushed XLU well ahead of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and also the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) during this span. StockCharts XLU has been powered by a blitz of favorable headlines. One set of story lines is pretty standard in the utility-stock world... the kind of thing we considered back in my rookie days. Some lately have been seeing indications that the long advertised but, so far, absent business downturn is finally at hand. We may not see a classic recession soon, if ever. Lately, different sectors have charted their own courses, rather than moving all together. But utility bulls can now point to enough business softness to suggest that inflation may be receding. That could motivate the Fed to ease interest rates. See, for example:  May 15, 2024: Inflation Eases as Core Prices Post Smallest Increase Since 2021  May 20, 2024: Why Jay Powell really wants to lower interest rates this September  May 20, 2024: Should the Fed relax its 2% inflation goal and cut interest rates? Yes, some experts say.   As a traditional income play, falling interest rates would help utility stocks, and of course, the flagship utility ETF, XLU. The other set of story lines emphasizes our accelerating digital age. Everything capturing the fancy of tech investors (electric vehicles, heat pumps, factory automation, digital health care, AI, etc.) requires more electricity. So, observers suggest utilities will benefit from much stronger demand. Here are some examples:  December 20, 2023: Suddenly, U.S. electricity demand is spiking. Can the grid keep up?  May 13, 2024: The Electrification of America Is on the Rise Again  May 14, 2024: AI is poised to drive 160% increase in data center power demand   Let's consider each story line insofar as it may or may not truly support buying or holding XLU shares. The Interest Rate Story The more I read about interest rates, the more I'm reminded of my undergraduate days. I'm not referring here to Economics classes. I'm instead referring to gestalt psychology and the philosopher Marshall McLuhan and his famous phrase \"The Medium is the Message.\" That's heady stuff. But simply put, McLuhan and the gestalt psychologists remind us to focus not only the object we see, but to also see it in the context of its background (figure-ground perception). Many in the investment field don't do this. Economic commentators, too, often downplay or ignore such context. That's why many today complain about how high inflation and interest rates are. If, however, they see the full \"gestalt,\" they'll recognize something obvious. The near-zero levels we saw in the recent post-pandemic past were an exceptional oddity. We can't really compare today's numbers to those outliers. Actually, Today's levels of CPI growth rates and interest rates are arguably in normal ranges. fred.stlouisfed.org fred.stlouisfed.org Those who trumpet the higher-for-longer interest rate story agree. See, for example, the May 16th Bloomberg story Fed Officials Suggest Interest Rates Should Stay High for Longer. Undoubtedly, you've seen and probably read more commentary on both sides of this debate. If rates don't fall, then XLU stock may or may not be too high. Consider that XLU now yields 2.98%. That's not exciting. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) has a 3.22% trailing 12 month yield. But that's likely low considering how older 7-10 year bonds in the portfolio have been maturing. They get replaced by newer ones based on today's interest-rate climate. The 30-day SEC yield, found on ETF web pages, annualizes the yield based on income earned by the portfolio in the last 30 days. In a stable to rising interest rate environment, it'll be more telling of the yield investors can expect to realize over the next 12 months. IEF's 30-day SEC yield is 4.40% as of this writing. You can get a 4.82% SEC yield from the lower-risk shorter-term iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY). The almost-money-market-like iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) has a 5.35% SEC yield. Income seekers willing to take on some credit risk in return for longer maturities can find a 5.44% 30-day SEC yield with the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) So… Is XLU more or less appealing than those fixed -income ETFs? Personally, I lean toward the fixed-income choices right now. You may choose otherwise. But I think it's reasonable to say that XLU is not the easy, no-brainer choice suggested by its recent rally. It's true that unlike these fixed-income ETFs, XLU's dividend can grow. But XLU isn't the only equity income choice featuring potential dividend growth. For example, the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY) has a 30-day SEC yield of 4.10%. DVY is invested 28.33% in utilities as of this writing. But with more than 70% outside this sector (including 26.14% in Financials and 10.36% in Consumer Stables), XLU investors will need to give serious thought to how quickly utility earnings and dividend really can grow going forward. That brings us to the other possible investment case... The AI, etc. Story (For convenience, I'll refer just to AI because that's what's in front of mind for so many today. Recognize, though, that when I say AI in this post, I also mean to include electric vehicles, factory automation, etc.) We have to take seriously the possibility that believers in this story are, in fact, responsible for driving XLU's latest spurt. Take another look at XLU's price action since its rally began on 4/16/24. But this time, let's compare it to Nvidia (NVDA), the face of AI investing. Let's also compare it to two ETFs I recently recommended which, I believe, are diversified AI plays. One is the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX). The other is the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV). StockCharts.com Wow! We saw above how XLU's rally outdid SPY and QQQ. But for a group of utilities to also outperform an AI-oriented group… These really aren't the boring utilities of my professional youth. Is the interest rate angle enough to accomplish that? Are investors looking for rates to recede all the way back toward zero? I doubt it. So for better or worse, we have to think seriously about the AI angle. Whatever some market participants think right now… I say the AI angle is not legit. (Big rallies don't make anything for real. This is, after all, the era of meme investing.) One of the more assertive expressions of the AI angle I've seen comes from Pete Carmasino, a former colleague of mine. It's the Electrification of America blog I cited above. After describing how the old AOL campus in Northern Virginia is being repurposed for use as a new data center, Pete went on to point out …  By the 1990s, a \"server rack\" would draw between 1 and 3 kW of power. That seemed like a lot at the time. But in comparison, today's demands are massive… Modern server racks consume more than 100 kW. That's an increase of roughly 100 times over the past 25 years. And thanks to the new artificial intelligence (\"AI\") craze, demand will only keep growing… The International Energy Agency (\"IEA\") found that AI and cryptocurrency computing already account for 2% of the world's power demand. More importantly, the IEA believes these two sources of power demand could double from their current levels by 2026. That creates a major problem… You see, the entire Internet depends on suburban Virginia's power plants to keep flowing. And now, thanks to AI and other tech advancements, we need more data-processing power. Based on that, he pointed out that the model used by his company turned bullish on XLU and that XLU \"doesn't look like it will stop marching higher anytime soon.\"  Pete's not alone. In fact, he's in some really good company. Another of the pieces I cited above, the one about the 160% increase in data center demand, comes from Goldman Sachs. It doesn't recommend XLU, or any other stock. But it works hard to sell the idea of AI-inspired demand for more power. Also, on March 31, 2024, Seeking Alpha analyst Hawkinvest cited AI as one of four reasons to buy XLU. That post was a boon served readers. It got them into XLU about two weeks before its rally started. I tip my hat to Hawkinvest, Pete, and anyone else who got folks into what turned out to be a well-timed trade. But there's a difference between a bona fide investment and a well-timed trade. (Pete especially appreciates this. He relies heavily on technical analysis.) Here's the problem. The ex-AOL facility about which Pete wrote is not an isolated situation. It's in a part of Northern Virginia that's known as \"data center alley.\" It actually has a huge cluster of data centers. But it's served by only one publicly owned utility, Dominion Energy (D). Seeking Alpha analyst Dane Bowler recommends D on the basis of it serving the alley. That's fine. He's recommending the relevant utility, not XLU. D comprises just 4.11% of XLU's portfolio. That means 95.89% of XLU's portfolio has nothing to do with this famous AI-suitable data center cluster. What's more, SA analysts aren't unanimous about D. Its overall Seeking Alpha Analyst Rating Grade is \"Buy.\" But D hasn't been doing well lately. The two most recent analysts to rate D say \"Hold.\" For deeper analysis of D, I refer you to the Seeking Alpha analysts who've written it up. Whatever you ultimately decide, remember, that's about D. It won't make or break a case for XLU. Now, as an investor with an eye toward the secular trends relating to digital and AI, it behooves me to consider whether other utilities may in the future get bigger in this area. Perhaps new data alleys will be established elsewhere. Or perhaps the whole thing may become decentralized… lots of little data alleys all over the U.S. That's possible. But I still won't own XLU on that basis. Think in terms of a funnel. The wide mouth of the funnel is an economic or business trend. The narrow end is the financial statements of a specific company and ultimately, its stock. Apple (AAPL) is an example of a wide-funnel situation. If I say handset demand is strong/weak, it's pretty easy for the idea to flow all the way down to the narrow end of the AAPL funnel. Strong/weak handset demand is very likely to help/hurt AAPL's financials and stock. On the other hand, the funnel between soaring AI and the financials and stock of any electric utility is very clogged. Let's consider a simple sequence:  AI demand rises. New data centers in XYZ Electric's territory get built. XYZ will have to figure out how to get enough power to serve them. It's probably going to have to spend a lot of money to build new capacity. Or it will have to find a way to buy power from someone else (who'll negotiate price, knowing full well how badly XYZ needs to buy.) XYZ will have to obtain capital to do this. XYZ will have to pay for that capital. XYZ will have to beg regulators to let it recover on its new investment, at least to a tolerable degree Regulators will have to balance XYZ's desire to earn that extra return against the interests of consumer/voters who don't like higher rates. And while all that's going on, XYZ will still have to run its established business, incurring such capital and operating costs as that entails, which won't be cheap if inflation is troublesome.  Let's see how this has already been playing out with D, the incumbent data alley utility. The tables below contain medians for various financial and fundamental ratios and for year-ahead growth estimates. (I prefer medians since these aren't impacted by wild distortions often caused by unusual data items, even in big companies that can dominate weighted averages.) They show these for companies in the XLU portfolios, for all Utilities in the Seeking Alpha screening database, and for all companies in the SPY portfolio. I'm also showing D separately. Author's computations and summary from data displayed in Seeking Alpha Portfolios Author's computations and summary from data displayed in Seeking Alpha Portfolios There's a lot of nip and tuck going on as to which column is better for which item. But I think we can draw some big picture conclusions. One, XLU is a pretty good representation of the utility sector as a whole. Second, and more important, D's data alley presence is not giving it demonstrably better numbers. In some instances, D is a bit better. In other areas, D is noticeably worse, particularly in financial ratios which reflect spending to build capacity. Comparing D with the full utility sector and with XLU shows how clogged a funnel it's had in pulling results out of its data center/AI bailiwick. Risk Utilities are well known as a generally low-risk defensive group. Calamities can happen, as with natural disasters. But these tend to be mitigated when one owns a well-diversified ETF portfolio as opposed to an individual utility stock. Capital costs and the inflationary impact on costs are ever-present. (The post-pandemic minimal inflation era was an exception). Regulatory support or obstruction is always a risk. The biggest risks right now are potential investor disappointment in whichever story (interest rates or AI) they favor. I consider both of these risks to be especially elevated right now, given the rhetoric around both stories and XLU's recent strength. What to do About XLU Stock The valuation ratios don't seem dramatic enough to offset either of the qualitative stories around XLU. Author's computations and summary from data displayed in Seeking Alpha Portfolios The price chart, on the other hand, looks very dramatic StockCharts.com It reflects the recent rally. The 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed above the 50-day EMA in time to signal the recent rally. And it's still climbing. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and the Chaikin Oscillator (CO) measure which party to trades is more motivated. Buyers being more motivated than sellers exerts upward pressure on stock prices, and vice versa. CMF does it for institutional investors. CO does it for the market in general. CMF is downright powerful right now. This tells us institutions are enthusiastic about XLU. CO, on the other hand, is positive but diminishing. Perhaps too many spoilsports like me are persuading too many non-institutional investors to be less excited about XLU. But I'm not a super-guru who can, with a word, change the market. So I get that my caution isn't going to hurt the stock. I'm not sure the non-institutional investor can do that, either. So I don't see an immediate challenge for XLU stock. But that could change very quickly. That's especially so with the interest rate dueling headlines angle. I'm recognizing I might be early in my view. But I can live with a bit of missed upside in exchange for getting out of two stories I really hate. As I've said before, my investment stance depends mainly on whether I think a stock will be better than, in line with, or worse than the market. Here's how I apply that to the Seeking Alpha rating system:  \"Strong Buy\" means I see the stock as being better than the market, and I'm bullish about the direction of the market. \"Buy\" means I see the stock as being better than the market, but am not confident about the market's near-term direction. \"Hold\" means I see the stock as moving in line with the market. \"Sell\" means I see the stock as being worse than the market, but am not confident about the market's near-term direction. \"Strong Sell\" means I see the stock as being worse than the market, and I'm bearish about the direction of the market.   Based on this scale, my discomfort with the interest rate and AI stories, and despite knowing I may be a tad early, I rate XLU as a \"Sell.\"","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.0","shortVersion":"4.24.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2437878859"}