Fed officials remain vague on interest rate timeline, indicating indecision - Citi

seekingalpha05-22

Inflation still remains top of mind for Wall Street as investors try to forecast when Chairman Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve will announce the market's first interest rate cut since hikes took...

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Citi on Wednesday said that Fed officials remain “vague” in their talking points in an indication that they want to keep options available for multiple scenarios. “Fed officials continued to give a generally vague time-based guidance in their speeches last week hinting that it would take ‘longer’ for them to gain confidence that inflation is slowing. This rhetoric is designed to sound committed to fighting inflation while still being open for future rate cuts,” Citi’s market research team indicated in an investor note on Wednesday. Citi went on to add: “We think that rates are unlikely to rally much in the near term. 5y5y Fed funds has moved down to 3.75% post CPI after having traded above 4% last month. Over time, we think this equilibrium Fed funds pricing will move lower, but in the near term, it is likely to be stuck in the 3.60% to 4% range.” See the chart below that Citi provided:  As rates remain in focus, they in turn keep U.S. Treasury yields (US2Y) (US10Y) in the spotlight along with many fixed income ETFs that are sensitive to rate decisions by the Fed. Some of those funds are as follows: (BND), (AGG), (BNDX), (MUB), (VCIT), (LQD), (MBB), (TLT), (TLH), (IEF), (IEI), and (SHY). See how Treasury yields have done across the curve at the Seeking Alpha bond page.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.0","shortVersion":"4.24.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2437929727"}