US Dollar Recovery Likely in Months Ahead Says Goldman Sachs

MT Newswires Live05-28

US Dollar Recovery Likely in Months Ahead Says Goldman Sachs The US dollar fell widely ahead of the North American open on Tuesday but won't depreciate much further ahead of November's election and is...

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.23% to 104.36 at last look.\"We think it will be difficult for the dollar to depreciate substantially ahead of the US election, because portfolio flows are unlikely to follow improving growth to the extent they might otherwise, which was also the pattern in 2016,\" Goldman Sachs strategists said in a note to clients late Friday.\"With our still-strong view of the US economy and approaching election risks, we expect the dollar to move back to the strong side of the recent range over the next few months, and think a \"breakout\" is more likely to come in favor of Dollar strength in the event of new inflationary catalysts such as tariffs or more fiscal expansion,\" they added.The Goldman strategists acknowledged that April's renewed decline of US inflation has, along with other signs of 'sticky' price pressures elsewhere in the world, undermined the prospect of a large or sustained divergence between the Federal Reserve and other central banks that was a key pillar of the firm's bullish view on the dollar.However, the prospect of fiscal largesse following November's election, and the likelihood of protectionist policies involving new and higher tariffs on imports to the US, are seen as likely to lift the dollar against major currencies in the months ahead from levels that are currently not far from the year-to-date lows seen in the early weeks of March.EUR/USD is forecast to fall back to 1.05 over the next three months while USD/JPY is seen falling back to 155. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is projected to fall back toward 1.24 while USD/CAD is seen climbing to 1.40 by the end of Q3.EUR/USD was last quoted on Tuesday morning at 1.0889.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":true,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2438378157"}