Games Workshop: Hidden Gaming Gem With Massive Upside Potential

seekingalpha2024-06-04

Games Workshop owns all the intellectual property related to Warhammer and has expanded into publishing books, producing animation shows, and licensing its IP for video games and TV shows/movies.GWS ...

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17:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697297-games-workshop-hidden-gaming-gem-with-massive-upside-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Games Workshop owns all the intellectual property related to Warhammer and has expanded into publishing books, producing animation shows, and licensing its IP for video games and TV shows/movies.GWS ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697297-games-workshop-hidden-gaming-gem-with-massive-upside-potential\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0276348264.USD","symbol_name":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) 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Its strong and shareholder-friendly management team has made GWS one of the top hobbyist companies globally.The stock can be an interesting portfolio diversifier offering consumer discretionary exposure with high stickiness, high willingness to pay, and significant upside potential from its licensing business.Manuel Milan Games Workshop Group PLC (OTCPK:GMWKF) - \"GWS\" - is a UK listed hobbyist company which created the fantasy tabletop warfare game known as 'Warhammer'. It engages in the design, manufacturing, and distribution of miniatures and sells the paints, brushes, tools and other supplies needed to fully equip hobbyists. The consumer-facing brand of GWS is 'Warhammer' a catch-all that encapsulates multiple fantasy universes to appeal to different consumers, including 'Warhammer Age of Sigmar', 'Warhammer 40,000' and more. GWS owns all the IP relating to these tabletop games and the universes they have created and have expanded their business into publishing books and stories (including audio dramas) and has also produced animation shows and movies. GWS also has a licensing business, where it licenses its IP to partners for the creation of video games and TV shows / movies. GWS was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Nottingham (UK). It sells its products through self-owned stores, specialty hobbyist stores ('Trade' stores in their parlance) and through its online store. In the 2023 fiscal year (May to May as this is a UK listed company) GWS made just over $600 million in revenues and a net profit of c. $172 million (net margins of ~29%). In this article, I present a view on GMWKF's 2024 1H and FY outlook, as well as beyond. In preview, I believe GWS is currently undervalued by c.14% and is a 'Buy'. Due to a strong shareholder friendly management team that has made GWS one of the top hobbyist companies globally, I believe the stock can be an interesting portfolio diversifier offering consumer discretionary exposure with high stickiness, high willingness to pay and significant upside potential from its licensing business. Overview of Games Workshop For those new to Warhammer and tabletop games, on their website, GWS explains the core components of the Warhammer hobby as \"Collecting, modelling, painting and gaming\". Collecting refers to the acquisition of miniatures to build one's own 'army' which can be used for display purposes, as well as to battle with other hobbyists. Modelling and painting refer to the assembly and painting of miniatures as well as unique landscapes such as mountains, forests, buildings etc. (part of the scenery and obstacles used in the tabletop game). Gaming is engaging in the tabletop army vs. army battles with other enthusiasts in real-life. Not all hobbyists join these tabletop games, but simply collect for the sake of collecting and the enjoyable pastime of assembling and painting miniatures. Others go to regular events held worldwide. Core business Overview GWS's core business is the creation, production and sale of miniatures and related paints and other necessary tools. To that end, it employs many designers to create new miniatures based on new stories, characters etc. every year. Products are sold through three main channels: self-owned retail stores, 'trade' stores (independent hobby stores) and through their online store. The self-owned stores are brand building and customer acquisition points. At the end of 1H 2024, GWS had 535 stores in operation globally. There were ~7,000 'trade' stores globally that sold Warhammer products during the period. In this digital day and age, what I like about GWS is that it encourages face-to-face interactions. The hobby also allows people to express their creativity, as collectors / gamers can mix and match the components of hobby sets to create truly unique compositions. With new stories and content being published regularly, it leaves the die-hard, passionate fans coming regularly back for more. A quick scan of their online store shows that to just get started in this hobby will cost several hundred dollars, as one will need to buy a few 'units' of warriors, the 'codex' (book of rules, statistics etc. needed to play the tabletop game), as well as paint, brushes, glue and other tools of the hobbyist trade. GWS Online Shop GWS Online Shop GWS Online Shop To ensure the continued relevance of the core business, GWS has built a strong global online community (called Warhammer Community), this is the main online presence of the brand. Warhammer Community gives fans regular updates and new content to explore, making sure things don't get stale. GWS has over 576,000 active users as at the end of 1H 2024, showing how their hobby is going 'omni-channel', linking online content with the offline tabletop experience. Besides its core business and online community, GWS has been investing in a subscription service for die-hard fans. It was launched in 2H 2022 and has been live for almost 2 years. This is an online portal called 'Warhammer+', which hosts a lot of their proprietary digital content (animation shows, apps, magazines and other exclusive subscriber content). To make the Warhammer experience more 'tech enabled', GWS created a 'codex' app, that is a replacement for the books originally required to play the game, so that fans can view everything digitally on their phone or tablet when playing. There is also an app specifically to help hobbyists with painting and design techniques, as well as an 'audiobook app' where fans can purchase and enjoy their audio-content, and a Warhammer TV app, to view their TV shows and animations. Warhammer+ currently has c. 169,000 subscribers (up from 115,000 YoY). Subscription costs are c.$6 per month or $59 per year (discounted price). This is where things get interesting. As mentioned above, GWS creates and owns a ton of IP. GWS licenses this IP to a few carefully chosen partners and works closely with them on the creation of TV shows / movies and video games. While there are already several Warhammer video games out there, they remain relatively niche, much as the table-top game. On a more upbeat note, there is a lot of reason for excitement as GWS is currently in negotiations with Amazon Studios for the creation of a TV Show and potential movies. In December 2023, GWS signed a contract with Amazon Studios for the development of a Warhammer 40,000 TV show and movie universe. As per their 2024 1H report, they are currently working with Amazon to iron out the details regarding Amazon's portrayal of the Warhammer universe. GWS notes, \"The agreement will only proceed once the creative guidelines are mutually agreed between [GWS] and Amazon\". There is nothing new to add here, and one can only hope these negotiations with Amazon are fruitful. Having read some of the Warhammer fiction created by GWS writers, I believe that the deal with Amazon Studios has the possibility to launch the GWS share price to new heights, and can mean a massive upside for the stock not currently priced in. Review of 2024 1H and Full-Year Outlook GWS's saw a very strong performance in the 1H of 2024, with revenue growth of 9% reaching $194.4 million and operating profit growth of 13%, reaching $74.2 million. Core revenue grew 11%, reaching (95% of total revenues) while Licensing revenue decreased by 15% (5% of total revenues). Core business margins were 35%, while Licensing margins reached 92%. This is what gets me so excited about the licensing business - 92% margins are extraordinary, and GWS has only just begun tapping into this potential. The licensing to Amazon could be a game changer for GWS, just as it was for Game of Thrones when the show was launched on HBO, or the Witcher on Netflix. What is interesting to note is that GWS has performed well throughout the pandemic and into the current 'challenging' environment. Games Workshop Annual Reports This gives me confidence that the full-year outlook is going to be solid, another record year with no specific reason to doubt this trend will cease. Outlook - 2025 Full Year and beyond As per the company's stated ambition in their latest annual report, their goal is \"to make the best fantasy miniatures in the world, to engage and inspire [their] customers, and to sell [their] products globally at a profit … decisions are focused on long-term success, not short-term gains.\" Looking ahead to 2025 (June 2024-June 2025), I believe the short-term outlook for GWS is positive. Similar trends reported in 1H24 are likely to persist - solid growth in its core business, with hopefully some significant upside from the Amazon Studios collaboration. Store numbers for its 'trade' stores, as well as self-owned retail stores continue to grow, as do its online sales. Furthermore, the number of active members of Warhammer Community and paid subscribers for Warhammer+ continues to rise. Due to the level of craftsmanship and complexity put into the development of IP and the miniatures, the hobby is an expensive one, and not for 'average' fans. Rather, it is a hobby for die hard fans who will keep coming back for more. As such, it is very niche. That said, due to GWS's omnichannel strategy, its focus on developing IP including books, audio dramas, TV shows, movies and video games in addition to its core table-top business means it can appeal to a much larger audience than a traditional 'board game'. Statista As shown by Statista's research in 2024, Warhammer has the potential to appeal to many different individuals, including those who like reading, video gaming, DIY and arts & crafts, board games and arguably socializing (though not highlighted), as the table-top game is a face-to-face activity. To analyze the threats to GWS's future success, I believe the future will depend on three key factors:  Continued Relevance to Fan Base & Reaching New Fans Operating Efficiency Licensing Success  Continued Relevance to Fan Base & Reaching New Fans As with any popular genre, GWS needs to maintain its relevance to its fan base and continue reaching new fans. This is challenging to do, as they need to ensure a new string of miniatures, paints, 'lore' (i.e., stories), TV shows, movies, video games, books etc. are launched across its various fantasy universes regularly to keep hobbyists engaged. The key is to keep their loyal fan base coming back for more. The only way to do this is to launch new and exciting content. The risk here lies in the quality of their creative teams. They need to attract, retain and continue to refresh their creative teams to ensure the hobby doesn't get stale, and that the world(s) of Warhammer continues to delight and surprise their fans. Not only that, but they also need to continue expanding their presence to reach new fans, both online and offline. One encouraging factor here is that GWS offers its employees a profit share scheme, where staff share in the company's performance. Should sales start to drop or stagnate, including the number of their online community, and Warhammer+ paid subscribers, this would be a red flag to watch. Operational efficiency Another key area for GWS to continue to manage is its operational efficiency. In general, GWS has done this expertly, as can be seen by its very high gross margins for its core business (70% in 1H24, up from 64% the previous year). Many other hobbyist companies such as Hornby (a UK-based model train company that has been in operation since 1920) face significant challenges when it comes to operational efficiency and thus have shown poor performance. What is also encouraging to see, as mentioned above, is that GWS is actively expanding its licensing business, which has 90%+ gross margins. In recent years, GWS has been investing in new systems and upgrading internal capabilities, as such its overheads have been increasing in absolute terms. I take this as a positive sign, however, as it means they are investing in the future. Should operational efficiency (i.e., gross margins) start to decline for its core business, this would be a major red flag and be a cause for concern. Licensing Success While I believe the core business has seen healthy growth in the past few years (with no reason to expect a slowdown soon), a key success factor that could see GWS's share price increasing dramatically is the success of the Amazon deal. This will hinge on mainly the 'creative' aspects of the representation of the Warhammer world, as GWS will want to ensure that their brand standards are maintained, and their profile enhanced. Commercial terms might also play a role. Should the Amazon deal fall apart, I do not believe this will result in a massive share price drop (though it will likely see a correction). Overall, I am optimistic about GWS's long-term prospects, as the company provides a unique and extremely sticky range of niche products to a die-hard fan base with a high willingness and ability to pay. Its business model is omni-channel and has proven to be resilient during challenging economic conditions. Management is making the right decisions to maintain customer relevance and has an extremely strong track record of executing its strategic priorities. Valuation and Shareholder Value GWS's shares are up 10.6% in the last year, closing at $133. Seeking Alpha Shares are up 7.9% YTD and 132% in the last 5 years. When looking at the operating performance over the past few years, I believe the reason for the increase is justified, as the company has continued to deliver strong and even record performance. The main downside for GWS in my opinion is that there is limited trading volume. This means the stock is rather illiquid and is a risk that potential buyers need to consider before taking a position in the stock. That said, when I compare the performance of GWS to the S&P 500 over the past 5 and 10 years, GWS has significantly outperformed the S&P 500. I see no reason for this outperformance not to continue, as the fundamentals of GWS have only improved, and the licensing deal provides additional upside. Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha (Note: over the past 3 years, GWS has underperformed the S&P 500 @ -8.8% vs. +25.6% of the S&P - but I attribute this mostly to the booming AI / tech stocks, not the rest of the index). Looking ahead, I am positive about the near-term and medium-term earnings, and optimistic about long-term earnings. Based on my DCF model, I have assumed a 12% revenue growth going forward (significantly lower than the 17% average of the past 4 years or the 20% CAGR of the past 6 years) and have set a long-term price target of c.$145, indicating GWS is currently undervalued by c.14%. I also believe that this is conservative, as a successful Amazon deal could send the stock price much higher than $145 (difficult to say how much, as the scope of their commercial agreement is not known). I am a buyer at this level and will continue to dollar cost average to increase my position. Author's Calculations In addition, GWS currently pays a dividend with a ~4% yield - I do consider this an attractive yield, though not spectacular, especially since interest rates are still quite high. That said, management has a strong track record of returning cash to shareholders in the form of dividends, so I remain confident in its future growth. Since GWS is not covered by Wall Street or Quant ratings, I cannot provide any comments on this. Other SA Analysts rate GWS as a 'Hold (3.00)', mainly due to the uncertainty over the Amazon deal. I acknowledge this is a big risk, but I do think the chances of it moving forward are higher than not, as this would be a step change for GWS. Risks There are two key risks associated with GWS: 1) Licensing risk associated with the Amazon Studios Contract As mentioned above, one key risk is the licensing risk of the franchise with Amazon. I expect this to be a major growth driver for the business, and should this deal fall apart (or should the TV shows / movies produced flop), this could cause a significant rerating of the stock and negative impact share price. Based on Amazon's work with shows such as Reacher, Jack Ryan, Bosch, The Marvelous Ms. Maisel, the Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power, I do not think the quality of the TV shows / movies will be an issue, but rather whether the project will get off the ground. More updates on this should be coming in the next few months. 2) Stock Liquidity risk GWS has poor trading volumes, which means that it is not necessarily easy to buy or sell the stock at a given price. This means it might be more expensive to start a position, and when trying to sell one might need to take a bit of a haircut as to the current market price. However, for buy-and-hold investors this should be slightly less of a concern. Takeaway GWS is currently trading c.14% below its all-time high and offers a dividend yield of ~4%. Based on a DCF analysis, I believe it is undervalued by 14%. Due to a strong shareholder friendly management team that has made GWS into potentially the most profitable niche hobby company in the world, I believe the stock can be an interesting portfolio diversifier offering Consumer Discretionary exposure with significant upside potential from the Amazon deal. That said, due to the low trading volume of the stock, investors need to consider this inconvenience before buying. I rate GWS as a 'Buy' and will continue to dollar cost average my position.  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. 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