Comerica sees S&P 500 riding up to 5,550 but holding the top will come with challenges

seekingalpha06-08

The S&P 500’s (SP500) start of June trade included hitting an intraday-record high above 5,375, and while Comerica Wealth Management sees room to advance, it said the index is approaching barriers in ...

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The index (SP500)(SPY) closed the week up by 1.3%, fronted by technology stocks (XLK). Market technicals indicate the benchmark can climb to the 5,550 range in the coming months after recently breaking above a 4,950-5,250 range, Comerica Chief Investment Officer John Lynch said in its mid-year outlook report Friday. “However, a review of equity market fundamentals suggests that the upside technical target may be difficult for the Index to sustain without improved support from interest rates and corporate earnings,” Lynch said. “Remember, the ‘E’ must substantiate the ‘P’ when considering valuation.”  The S&P 500's (SP500)(VOO) close at 5,346.99 on Friday is ~3.8% below Comerica's 5,550 near-term technical target. The S&P 500 (SP500)(IVV) is up +12% YTD, an \"impressive\" move even as investors push back expectations of when the Federal Reserve will start rate cuts, Lynch said. Investors seeing the ability of AI technology to bolster corporate profitability has fueled market optimism. Comerica sees S&P 500 (SP500) companies logging profit growth in the 8% range this year. However, that view is below the consensus 11%-12% growth projection.  “We remain concerned that the fourth quarter projection of ~+17.0% EPS YOY growth remains too lofty, though we’re hopeful to hear strong guidance during second quarter earnings calls next month,” Lynch said.  Strong outlooks would prompt Comerica to review its call for the S&P 500(SP500) to generate per-share earnings of $237.50 this year. For 2025, the firm is also below the +$275.00 EPS consensus estimate. “Our projection remains in the $260.00 range until we get clarity on corporate guidance and a better feel for the direction of market interest rates,” Lynch said.  At the shorter-term technical target of 5,550, Comerica said the benchmark (SP500) will be fairly valued on a fundamental basis in the 5,200-5,250 range by year-end. That’s based on a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 22.0X its 2024 forecast of $237.50, and 20.0X its $260.00 projection for 2025.   Lynch is also watching the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y), which has been around the 4.5% range. “A decided break above that level, back to the 5.0% range, would signal traders’ concerns about the financing of federal deficits and inflation, threatening the valuation metrics for equities,” he said.  The 10-year yield (US10Y) on Friday spiked up to +4.4% after the May payrolls report came in hotter than markets had anticipated. “A move in the benchmark yield toward 4.0% could benefit stocks, assuming the driver wasn’t fear of recession,” Lynch said.  Investors looking for large-cap ETFs, here are a few: (VTI), (QQQ), (SCHX), and (IWB).","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2442003316"}