Morgan Stanley Sees Crude Boost This Summer but Supply Surpluses into 2025

Seeking Alpha06-12

U.S. crude oil prices rose marginally on Tuesday, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 while OPEC maintained its outlook for relatively ...

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06-12
ricktrades92
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href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115013-morgan-stanley-sees-crude-boost-this-summer-but-supply-surpluses-into-2025><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>U.S. crude oil prices rose marginally on Tuesday, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 while OPEC maintained its outlook for relatively ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115013-morgan-stanley-sees-crude-boost-this-summer-but-supply-surpluses-into-2025\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4127","symbol_name":"投资银行业与经纪业","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115013-morgan-stanley-sees-crude-boost-this-summer-but-supply-surpluses-into-2025","article_id":"2442832530","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2442832530","pubTimestamp":1718162100,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"U.S. crude oil prices rose marginally on Tuesday, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 while OPEC maintained its outlook for relatively s","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 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forecast for 2024 while OPEC maintained its outlook for relatively strong growth this year.In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for 2024 world oil demand growth to 1.1M bbl/day from its previous estimate for a 900K bbl/day increase, while lowering its 2024 estimates for benchmark crude prices by ~4%.The EIA said it sees spot Brent averaging $84.15/bbl in 2024, down from its previous forecast of $87.79/bbl, and WTI averaging $79.70/bbl, vs. its previous view of $83.05, but it forecast Brent rising to $85/bbl in this year's H2, as OPEC+ extends voluntary production cuts through Q3.\"Although crude oil prices initially fell following the OPEC+ announcement, we expect the extension of all voluntary cuts through 3Q24 will cause global oil inventories to continue falling through 1Q25 and put upward pressure on oil prices over that period,\" the EIA said in its report.Meanwhile, OPEC+ said in its monthly report that continues 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indicates $86/bbl in Q3, easing to $85/bbl in Q4 before sliding to $81/bbl at the start of 2025 and $76 by the end of next year.Without further action by OPEC+, Morgan Stanley analysts believe 2025 will see a \"persistent\" surplus.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":315928899850312,"gmtCreate":1718162493877,"gmtModify":1718164212730,"author":{"id":"4180142903744422","authorId":"4180142903744422","name":"ricktrades92","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Gg <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BHP.AU\">$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"Gg <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BHP.AU\">$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"Gg $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315928899850312","repostId":2442832530,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2442832530","pubTimestamp":1718162100,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2442832530?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-12 11:15","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Sees Crude Boost This Summer but Supply Surpluses into 2025","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2442832530","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"U.S. crude oil prices rose marginally on Tuesday, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 while OPEC maintained its outlook for relatively s","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">U.S. crude oil prices rose marginally on Tuesday, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 while OPEC maintained its outlook for relatively strong growth this year.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for 2024 world oil demand growth to 1.1M bbl/day from its previous estimate for a 900K bbl/day increase, while lowering its 2024 estimates for benchmark crude prices by ~4%.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The EIA said it sees spot Brent averaging $84.15/bbl in 2024, down from its previous forecast of $87.79/bbl, and WTI averaging $79.70/bbl, vs. its previous view of $83.05, but it forecast Brent rising to $85/bbl in this year&#39;s H2, as OPEC+ extends voluntary production cuts through Q3.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;Although crude oil prices initially fell following the OPEC+ announcement, we expect the extension of all voluntary cuts through 3Q24 will cause global oil inventories to continue falling through 1Q25 and put upward pressure on oil prices over that period,&#34; the EIA said in its report.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Meanwhile, OPEC+ said in its monthly report that continues to forecast oil growth demand this year at 2.2M bbl/day and next year at 1.8M bbl/day, unchanged from last month&#39;s outlook, with non-OPEC+ supply seen rising by 1.2M bbl/day in 2024 and 1.1M bbl/day in 2025, both the same as estimated in May.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for July delivery closed +0.2% to $77.90/bbl, and front-month August Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed +0.3% to $81.92/bbl.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (NRGU), (USOI)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Morgan Stanley analysts said they expect Brent crude prices will rise by ~$5/bbl this summer but warned that a trend toward tightening supply in the next three months will give way to surpluses toward year-end 2024 and into 2025.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Once Q3 ends, the bank sees seasonal tailwinds turning into seasonal headwinds, noting refined product demand tends to drop by an average 3.9M bbl/day in the September-through-January period, making for a difficult environment to rally.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Morgan Stanley&#39;s pricing deck for Brent crude indicates $86/bbl in Q3, easing to $85/bbl in Q4 before sliding to $81/bbl at the start of 2025 and $76 by the end of next year.</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Without further action by OPEC+, Morgan Stanley analysts believe 2025 will see a &#34;persistent&#34; surplus.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Sees Crude 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Information Administration raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 while OPEC maintained its outlook for relatively ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115013-morgan-stanley-sees-crude-boost-this-summer-but-supply-surpluses-into-2025\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","MS":"摩根士丹利","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115013-morgan-stanley-sees-crude-boost-this-summer-but-supply-surpluses-into-2025","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2442832530","content_text":"U.S. crude oil prices rose marginally on Tuesday, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 while OPEC maintained its outlook for relatively strong growth this year.In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for 2024 world oil demand growth to 1.1M bbl/day from its previous estimate for a 900K bbl/day increase, while lowering its 2024 estimates for benchmark crude prices by ~4%.The EIA said it sees spot Brent averaging $84.15/bbl in 2024, down from its previous forecast of $87.79/bbl, and WTI averaging $79.70/bbl, vs. its previous view of $83.05, but it forecast Brent rising to $85/bbl in this year's H2, as OPEC+ extends voluntary production cuts through Q3.\"Although crude oil prices initially fell following the OPEC+ announcement, we expect the extension of all voluntary cuts through 3Q24 will cause global oil inventories to continue falling through 1Q25 and put upward pressure on oil prices over that period,\" the EIA said in its report.Meanwhile, OPEC+ said in its monthly report that continues to forecast oil growth demand this year at 2.2M bbl/day and next year at 1.8M bbl/day, unchanged from last month's outlook, with non-OPEC+ supply seen rising by 1.2M bbl/day in 2024 and 1.1M bbl/day in 2025, both the same as estimated in May.Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for July delivery closed +0.2% to $77.90/bbl, and front-month August Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed +0.3% to $81.92/bbl.ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (NRGU), (USOI)Morgan Stanley analysts said they expect Brent crude prices will rise by ~$5/bbl this summer but warned that a trend toward tightening supply in the next three months will give way to surpluses toward year-end 2024 and into 2025.Once Q3 ends, the bank sees seasonal tailwinds turning into seasonal headwinds, noting refined product demand tends to drop by an average 3.9M bbl/day in the September-through-January period, making for a difficult environment to rally.Morgan Stanley's pricing deck for Brent crude indicates $86/bbl in Q3, easing to $85/bbl in Q4 before sliding to $81/bbl at the start of 2025 and $76 by the end of next year.Without further action by OPEC+, Morgan Stanley analysts believe 2025 will see a \"persistent\" surplus.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2442832530"}