Higher Risk of RBA Rate Hike in 2H Than a Cut -- Market Talk

Dow Jones06-13

0649 GMT - Australia's employment data released earlier today is unlikely to shift the dial for the Reserve Bank of Australia, says Paul Bloxham, chief economist for Australia at HSBC, in a note. Strong job creation while the labor market is gradually loosening due to higher labour supply has been what the RBA is hoping for as part of its 'narrow pathway' to a soft landing, he says. Bloxham sees the RBA on hold next week, but still hawkish as it remains more concerned about the still high inflation than it does about weak economic growth. While HSBC's central case has the RBA on hold through 2024, with cuts starting in 2Q 2025, it sees a higher risk of a hike in 2H 2024 than a cut, he adds. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 13, 2024 02:49 ET (06:49 GMT)

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Bloxham sees the RBA on hold next week, but still hawkish as it remains more concerned about the still high inflation than it does about weak economic growth. While HSBC's central case has the RBA on hold through 2024, with cuts starting in 2Q 2025, it sees a higher risk of a hike in 2H 2024 than a cut, he adds. 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