ASML: Poised For Growth As The Semiconductor Industry Bounces Back

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ASML Holding N.V. stock returns have been lackluster over the last two years due to declining revenue growth in the semiconductor industry.Its lithography machines are valuable for chip manufacturing;...

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href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699109-asml-poised-for-growth-as-the-semiconductor-industry-bounces-back><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ASML Holding N.V. stock returns have been lackluster over the last two years due to declining revenue growth in the semiconductor industry.Its lithography machines are valuable for chip manufacturing;...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699109-asml-poised-for-growth-as-the-semiconductor-industry-bounces-back\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2491050071.SGD","symbol_name":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (SGDHDG) 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ACC"},"translate_title":"ASML：随着半导体行业反弹，有望实现增长","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1,"CAJFF":1,"CAJPY":1,"IBM":1,"INTC":1,"NINOF":1,"NINOY":1,"SOXX":1,"ASML":1,"03165":0.6,"03145":0.6},"content_text":"ASML Holding N.V. stock returns have been lackluster over the last two years due to declining revenue growth in the semiconductor industry.Its lithography machines are valuable for chip manufacturing; it has a monopoly on EUV lithography technology.Despite the risks, the company is a buy for its potential upside in a forecasted semiconductor industry rebound in 2025.Pixelbizz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images ASML Holding N.V.'s (NASDAQ:ASML) stock has struggled between 2022 and 2024 as the semiconductor industry entered a cyclical downturn. The following chart from Omdia shows that annual semiconductor industry revenue growth peaked in 2021 and declined to 9% year-over-year in 2023. Omdia 2024 Last year, the semiconductor industry was in a chip supply glut, which hurt many of its customers and slowed ASML's sales growth. Although some experts believe the chip industry will begin to bounce back in 2024, some of the adverse effects of the downturn have lingered into the first half of this year. When the company reported first-quarter 2024 earnings in April, year-over-year revenue growth was down 21% year-over-year and had missed analysts' estimates by 1.6%. Management also made some comments during its first quarter 2024 earnings call that implied that 2024 was a transition year and during the first half of the year, sales of its chipmaking lithography machines may be weak. However, sales should be much stronger in the second half of the year. Investors have already anticipated a chip industry and ASML rebound, with both the company and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) beating the returns of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) year to date. This semiconductor equipment's stock also rose approximately 10% on June 5, when the news hit the market that it would begin shipping its latest lithography machines to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) and Samsung Electronics later in 2024. Data by YCharts Even though the stock's June 12, 2024 closing price is 89% above its 52-week low of $564, there is still time to invest in ASML for its potential upside over the next three to five years. Now could be an ideal time to buy the stock before the next upcycle is in full swing. Several secular trends should boost ASML's growth over the next several years, including clean energy, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence (\"AI\") driving demand for more advanced chip manufacturing techniques like high-bandwidth memory and new global chip factories spurred by government incentives. This article will discuss why ASML's equipment is so valuable in chip manufacturing, briefly review first-quarter earnings, and discuss what to expect in future quarters. It will also discuss a few risks, the valuation, and reasons investors should consider buying the stock today. Why ASML's lithography machines are so valuable Lithography in chipmaking uses light to print tiny patterns on silicon. In the early days of semiconductor manufacturing, chipmakers used visible light to print the patterns. However, the visible light spectrum is in the 400 to 700 nanometers (nm) range. I have seen people describe using visible light in lithography as writing patterns with a magic marker. In 1981, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) and Intel Corporation (INTC) manufactured chips in the 1.5 micrometer or 1,500-nanometer (\"nm\") process node. Companies will be at the 1 nm process node in a few years. That should show you how blunt an instrument that visible light is for writing patterns. The semiconductor industry needed to create better resolutions to make smaller patterns on silicon, resulting in smaller chips. Eventually, the industry moved towards using ultraviolet rays to gain that superior resolution. The following image from NASA shows the ultramagnetic spectrum. NASA The first lithography machines outside the visible light range used deep ultraviolet (DUV), which are wavelengths between 280 and approximately 200 nm. The highest resolution DUV that ASML uses is 193 nm. There are only a few companies capable of manufacturing DUV lithography machines today outside of ASML, including Nikon Corporation (OTCPK:NINOY)(OTCPK:NINOF), Canon Inc. (OTCPK:CAJPY)(OTCPK:CAJFF), and Nil Technology. Deep UV is like writing with a ballpoint pen instead of a magic marker, and chip manufacturers can manufacture chips down to a 5 nm process node using DUV technology. However, making chips that small is complicated and very expensive using DUV. The semiconductor industry needed lithography machines to produce light on the borderline between ultraviolet and X-rays, 10 to 30 nanometers, which is Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) territory, to manufacture chips below 5 nm, and ASML became that company. It is the only company in the world today capable of manufacturing EUV lithography machines. These machines use EUV wavelengths of 13.5 nm, which is like using a drafting pencil instead of a ballpoint pen to write patterns, and can theoretically make chips as small as 1 nm. In the future, applications like generative AI, clean energy, data centers, electric vehicles, mobile computing, and other future technologies may require chips as small as 1 nm. ASML stock maintains a higher valuation than other semiconductor equipment manufacturing companies because of its monopoly status as the sole EUV lithography equipment manufacturer. The story of how ASML beat Nikon and Canon to the punch in EUV technology is a long story that involved a bit of luck and fortuitous relationships with American technology providers that allowed it to collaborate with Lawrence Livermore, Sandia, and Lawrence Berkeley national laboratories. Canon and Nikon Precision's failure to create lithography machines on par with ASML was likely a result of a lack of access to that research from U.S. national laboratories. Although ASML may have a hand in designing many of its components, it manufactures only a few of the components of its EUV lithography machine. These machines require companies capable of manufacturing specialized equipment like lasers manufactured by TRUMPF and mirrors manufactured by Zeiss. ASML runs one of the most sophisticated global supply chains. The time it takes to design and develop the technology, the complexity of putting together a supply chain of companies capable of manufacturing specialized equipment like lasers and mirrors, integrating all the complex technology into a unit, and the time involved in developing sophisticated software to operate the equipment could present a formidable barrier to entry for competitors trying to replicate its success. ASML first quarter 2024 review ASML generated a first quarter 2024 revenue of EUR5.3 billion, of which EUR1.3 billion came from installed base management sales, which is revenue from its customers for items like maintenance and service, upgrades, training contracts, and other services. In addition to analysts being disappointed with the first quarter's reported revenue, they also thought new bookings of EUR3.6 billion were light. Analysts forecast bookings of EUR5.4 billion. Analysts likely expected a boost from a possibly rebounding semiconductor industry and growth drivers like generative AI stimulating equipment sales that failed to appear. Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen addressed the perceived bookings shortfall on the first quarter earnings call by saying (emphasis added): There is quite a bit of speculation around order numbers, so I will make a few comments here. In the past six months, we've had orders of almost EUR13 billion, which is quite significant. As we said in the past, our order flow can be lumpy and may not be evenly distributed over the year. Although we don't guide orders, an order rate a bit over EUR4 billion per quarter for the final three quarters of the year, would provide full order coverage at the end of 2024 for a 2025 sales number that would be at the midpoint of our 2022 Investor Day scenarios. At the end of Q1 2024, we finished with a backlog of around EUR38 billion. As a reminder, the following table is ASML's guidance that it gave at its 2022 investor conference, calling for EUR35 billion in total sales at the midpoint. The gray column is the 2021 guidance, and the light blue column is the updated guidance the company gave in 2022. At the end of 2023, ASML reported EUR27.6 billion in total sales and EUR21.9 billion in system sales. The company also forecast a gross margin between approximately 54% and 56%. ASML 2022 Investor Presentation Analysts likely use the above 2022 investor presentation guidance to forecast bookings, revenue, margin, and price targets, so investors should pay attention to ASML's progress or lack thereof in achieving the above guidance. The following first quarter 2024 consolidated statement showed gross margins at 51%, similar to last year. Operating margins were 26.3%, down 640 basis points (\"bps\"). Net income margin was 23.1%, down 590 bps. ASML First Quarter 2024 Investor Presentation. The following chart shows that quarterly free cash flow (\"FCF\") has dropped to negative EUR676 million. ASML First Quarter 2024 Investor Presentation. CFO Roger Dassen said the following on the first quarter earnings call about the company's negative quarterly FCF: We ended Q1 with negative free cash flow, primarily driven by lower down payments and higher inventory relative to last quarter. In the current environment, as customers work to return to profitability and strengthen cash position, we continue to provide some support for our customers. The higher inventory is a result of the increased material intake, including High NA [numerical aperture] as part of planned capacity ramp in preparation for stronger demand next year. The above statement highlights two reasons FCF is down. First, the company is building inventory in anticipation of higher demand in 2025. This inventory buildup ties up cash and negatively impacts FCF. High NA refers to the company's next-generation EUV lithography machine for high-volume chip manufacturing in 2025 and 2026. Second, the reference to supporting customers means ASML has allowed some buyers to pay lower down payments as they rebound from the stress of a chip downcycle. Lower down payments mean lower cash up front, negatively impacting cash flow. FCF will likely rebound as the chipmaking industry goes into an upcycle, ASML burns off inventory, and the company raises down payments to the previous level. The company ended the first quarter with EUR5.4 billion in cash and short-term investments and EUR4.6 billion in long-term debt. Its debt-to-EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) ratio was 0.72 at the end of the first quarter, which indicates a strong capability to pay down its debt. The company's outlook Management forecasted second quarter 2024 total net sales of EUR5.95 billion at the midpoint, down 13.8% from last year's second-quarter sales of $6.9 billion. It expects 2024 sales to be similar to the previous year's EUR27.6 billion. If those forecasts hold, management expects the company to generate around EUR16 billion in the second half of 2024, which may be a tall order. However, CFO Roger Dassen said (emphasis added), \"The relatively low first-half of the year, compared to the expected strong second half, is in line with the expected industry recovery from the downturn.\" ASML First Quarter 2024 Investor Presentation. If the expected second-half recovery fails or is less robust than experts believe, the company may miss the 2024 full year's guidance. The fact that bookings underwhelmed in the first quarter made investors nervous. Wall Street will likely be very sensitive to revenue and bookings misses over the next several quarters and will likely sell off the stock if it looks like the company will miss its full-year revenue guidance. Risks ASML generates most of its revenue from selling a relatively small amount of high-priced lithography machines yearly. It sold 345 lithography machines in 2022 and 449 lithography machines in 2023. The company's revenue from quarter to quarter is susceptible to anything that causes a delay in revenue recognition, including its fast shipments program that ASML instituted over the last several years to meet customer needs more quickly by skipping some testing in its manufacturing facility. Instead, final testing and acceptance of the unit will take place on the customer's site. The downside of the fast shipments program is that it delays revenue recognition until the customer formally accepts the unit. The company's susceptibly to lumpy revenue could be a short-term risk during a year when investors are very sensitive to revenue misses. ASML also has significant geopolitical risks. The following table shows that around 26% of 2023 total net sales came from China. ASML 2023 Annual Report. The company stated in its 2023 Annual Report: We are required under Dutch regulations and other applicable legislation to obtain licenses for the export of certain technologies. In some cases, such licenses have not been granted or renewed. For example, at the end of 2023, the Dutch government partially revoked a license for shipment of NXT:2050i and NXT:2100i systems, impacting a small number of customers in China. Following recent changes in the Dutch regulations, advanced DUV-immersion is also now subject to license requirement. The US government has enacted trade measures, including national security regulations and restrictions on conducting business with certain Chinese entities, restricting our ability to provide certain products and services to such entities without a license. If the U.S. government further restricts sales to China, it could significantly impact the company's revenue. In the same region, Taiwan generated around 29% of 2023 total net sales and 38% of 2022 total net sales. There is a risk of China invading Taiwan and nationalizing ASML's assets, which could negatively impact revenue. The company guards against China stealing and using its machines by building in the capability of remotely shutting down its EUV machines if China invades Taiwan. Still, if China invades Taiwan, it would severely impact the company's business. ASML requires a particular rare earth metal to make magnets in its machines. China controls the production of around 70% of rare earth metals worldwide. If the Chinese government decides to restrict shipments of rare earth to ASML or its suppliers, it could negatively impact the company's production of lithography machines. This risk is not theoretical. China has already restricted exports of some types of rare earth to the U.S. In response, ASML has partially guarded against the risk of losing a rare earth metal source. ASML website states: In the past, we used a particular mixture of rare earth metals to make our magnets. So, to mitigate ASML's exposure to this risk, our engineers identified a second combination that can do the same job. Now we have two options that we can use depending on availability and market developments. Customers in South Korea represented around 25% of 2023 total net sales and close to 29% of 2022 total net sales. The company may find generating revenue from its South Korean customers challenging if a war breaks out between North Korea and South Korea. ASML also has some customers and operations in Israel. The company could be adversely affected if the situation deteriorates further in that region. Valuation ASML has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 14.86, much higher than the average P/S ratio of 4.59 for the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry and higher than a few of its well-known Semiconductor Equipment shown in the following chart. Still, investors should remember that its monopoly position in EUV lithography may warrant the company's premium valuation. It also has a premium one-year forward P/S premium valuation of 10.69, shown in the second chart. Data by YCharts Generally, if a company's earnings-per-share (\"EPS\") growth rate is less than its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, the stock is overvalued. There is reason to believe that the market overvalues ASML's fiscal 2024 EPS estimate, and investors may be biased to push the stock price down in the short term using the above criteria. However, due to the expected rebound in the semiconductor industry in fiscal 2025, the company's expected EPS growth of 55.24% exceeds its consensus one-year forward P/E of 32.39. If ASML's one-year forward P/E traded at its estimated growth rate for fiscal 2025, the stock price would be $1,767.12, which is 65% above its June 12, 2024 closing stock price. If it looks increasingly likely that this European semiconductor equipment manufacturer will hit its EPS growth estimates as 2024 draws close, the stock has the potential for a strong rally into the end of this year. Seeking Alpha The following chart shows ASML has a price-to-FCF (P/FCF) well above its five- and ten-year median. Data by YCharts However, remember that the company's FCF is down significantly due primarily to its inventory buildup. If the semiconductor industry and ASML's revenue and margins rebound in 2025, its FCF should rapidly expand, and it could rapidly grow into its P/FCF by the end of 2025. ASML is a buy  If you decide to invest in this stock, the going could be rough in the short term, especially if the company misses analysts' second-quarter earnings estimates. It reports earnings on Jul 17, 2024. If you are a cautious investor, you may want to see those results and third quarter guidance before buying. However, today might be an ideal time for growth investors to start a position and dollar cost average into the company over the next several quarters. Although there is a potential for the stock to decline, the market is well aware that 2025 could be a banner year for growth. Some investors may ignore bad short-term results and continue bidding the stock up, especially if positive news continues to hit the market of a semiconductor rebound in 2025. I rate ASML as a buy.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2443639931"}