IDRV: Tariffs And Lack Of U.S. Tech Are Significant Drawbacks

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Scharfsinn86 Investment Thesis iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF (NYSEARCA:IDRV) is a hold due to multiple uphill challenges facing the autonomous vehicle industry, including infrastructure ...

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While IDRV is globally diversified with even weights on U.S., European, and Asian companies, import tariffs present a major risk to foreign companies such as Chinese automakers. Finally, IDRV lacks well-established U.S. large tech companies that have made major investment into autonomous and EV technologies. Therefore, in the short-term, IDRV is likely to see suboptimal returns compared to peer funds. Fund Overview and Compared ETFs IDRV is a passively managed fund that seeks to track the NYSE FactSet Global Autonomous Driving and Electric Vehicle Index. The fund, created in 2019, includes companies from developed and emerging markets that may benefit from electric vehicles, battery, and self-driving technologies. Notably, IDRV includes only 25.8% weight on U.S. companies. The second-largest weight is on Asia-Pacific holdings at 38.55%, including Chinese companies (16.9%). European companies make up the remaining weight of the fund, including France (12.4%) and Germany (10.5%). For comparison purposes, other funds examined are Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (DRIV), First Trust S-Network Future Vehicles & Technology ETF (CARZ), and SPDR S&P Kensho Smart Mobility ETF (HAIL). The largest difference between IDRV and these compared funds is their geographic diversification. DRIV is more concentrated in U.S. companies at 56.3%, but also includes Japan (11.3%) and South Korea (4.7%). In contrast to IDRV, DRIV has only 3.5% weight in China. Similarly to DRIV, CARZ has a 58.4% weight on U.S. holdings and just 4.3% weight in China. HAIL is the most concentrated on U.S. holdings at 84% weight and includes semiconductor companies (18.2% weight) in addition to automotive parts, equipment, and manufacturing companies. Funds Compared: Performance, Expenses, and Dividends IDRV has seen a 5-year annual return of roughly 6%. By comparison, DRIV has seen the best performance of compared funds, with a 5-year average annualized return of 14.49%. CARZ saw a lower total price return, but higher 5-year average annualized return compared to DRIV at 15.68%. HAIL has seen the worst performance with a 5-year average return of 4.88%. As I will discuss later, I assess that IDRV's lagging performance will persist due to its current mix of holdings. 5-Year Total Price Return: IDRV and Compared Autonomous and Electric Vehicle ETFs (Seeking Alpha) Most ETFs that are focused on a particular niche have a relatively high expense ratio. While this is the case for the funds examined, IDRV is on the lower end at 0.47%. Despite consisting of many growth-focused companies, IDRV has a noteworthy dividend yield of 2.61% that has been growing at a 38% 3-year CAGR. Expense Ratio, AUM, and Dividend Yield Comparison     IDRV DRIV CARZ HAIL   Expense Ratio 0.47% 0.68% 0.70% 0.45%   AUM $220.93M $546.62M $36.18M $53.56M   Dividend Yield TTM 2.61% 1.61% 1.26% 2.93%   Dividend Growth 3 YR CAGR 38.41% 78.83% 32.44% 29.48%   Click to enlarge Source: Seeking Alpha, 13 Jun 24 IDRV Holdings and Key Outlook Factors IDRV is the least diversified ETF examined, with just 56 holdings. Due to its lower weight on U.S. companies, we see a few big-name companies missing from its top holdings, including NVIDIA (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA). Instead, foreign holdings such as Renault (XPAR:RNO), Abb Ltd. (XSWX:ABBN), and BYD (XHKG:1211) take top positions. Nearly half of IDRV's weight is in its top 10 holdings listed below. Top 10 Holdings for IDRV and Peer Autonomous Vehicle Funds   IDRV - 56 holdings DRIV - 75 holdings CARZ - 101 holdings HAIL - 78 holdings   ABBN - 6.39% NVDA - 6.54% NVDA - 6.05% NVDA - 4.08%   RNO - 6.25% QCOM - 3.77% AAPL - 5.33% APSN - 3.77%   SU - 6.22% GOOGL - 3.56% TSM - 5.15% BLBD - 2.94%   1211 - 4.76% AAPL - 3.27% GOOGL - 4.88% QCOM - 2.46%   VOW3 - 4.57% MSFT - 3.24% MSFT - 4.51% GM - 2.20%   PAH3 - 4.51% 7203 JP - 2.91% TSLA - 4.45% ALSN - 2.03%   PLS - 4.25% TSLA - 2.31% AMD - 4.11% MOD - 1.96%   6902 - 3.98% HON - 2.31% SSNLF - 3.95% LYFT - 1.88%   006400 - 3.72% 6501 JP - 2.29% QCOM - 3.65% UBER - 1.82%   373220 - 3.47% NXPI - 1.98% TXN - 2.75% TRMB - 1.80%   Click to enlarge Source: Multiple, compiled by author on 13 Jun 24 Looking forward, the expected returns for IDRV and peers ultimately comes down to the projected growth of autonomous and electric vehicles by geography. If the U.S. achieves greater growth and dominance in these markets, one can reasonably expect greater returns from DRIV, CARZ, and HAIL. However, if European and particularly Asia-Pacific regions see greater growth, IDRV will likely see outsized performance. With this perspective, let's take a closer look at some factors impacting the global outlook. Does IDRV Have the Right Holdings Mix? I started my research of IDRV's holdings mix quite skeptical. After all, it has the lowest weight on larger, U.S. companies and I admittedly have home country bias. However, I was positively surprised at a few well-postured holdings to take advantage of autonomous vehicle growth. In the autonomous driving industry, there are six levels ranging from no automation to full automation where a human driver is no longer necessary. Autonomous vehicle ETFs will therefore benefit the most from companies that are the most advanced on this scale. While Elon Musk claimed that Tesla would be close to level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021, this has not materialized. Currently, Tesla vehicles are predominantly on level 2. Six Levels of Vehicle Autonomy (www.ptolemus.com) IDRV's #2 holding, the Renault Group, has also been investing into level 2, or partial automation, with potential to advance much further. Renault has been collaborating with WeRide, an autonomous driving company, to further achieve level 4 autonomy. Renault further hopes that in 2026 there will be a fleet of electric minibuses that are automated into France's transportation network. Renault is not the only European car company to invest in autonomous vehicles, however. Volkswagen (XETR:VOW3) plans to provide an autonomous mobility service in 2025 in Europe, and even further expansion to the United States. Perhaps the most advanced autonomous contender is Chinese BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), IDRV's #4 holding. BYD launched a level 4 vehicle back in 2018 that utilizes GPS, lidar, radar, and cameras. It has partnered with Toyota for further growth and development. Despite this progress, U.S.-based Tesla still dominates other automakers, with a market cap of over $500B. Chinese BYD stands at #6 with just $80B in market cap. Largest Global Auto Manufacturers by Market Capitalization (GlobalData, www.cnn.com) Another noteworthy absence from IDRV is NVIDIA. The U.S.-based semiconductor company has been developing Drive Thor, a next-generation automotive chip expected to go into production in 2025. NVDA's competitive advantage is that it is an inclusive chip that can provide driver assistance, instrumentation, and even entertainment. As a result, it aims to achieve cost savings for car companies. So now to circle back to my original question of whether IDRV has the right holdings mix. While BYD and European car companies are showing promise, I do not see how IDRV can see strong gains without U.S. big tech such as NVDA. Furthermore, despite Tesla's recent struggles, its dominance, particularly for the U.S. consumer, is clear. Peer funds, DRIV or CARZ, therefore have a stronger mix of top holdings. Autonomous and EV Infrastructure In addition to the technological advancements of individual companies, another key consideration is whether the U.S., Europe, and Asia have the infrastructure to support autonomous and electric vehicle growth. While China has the most paved roads by mileage, the U.S. has the most paved roads per capita for its population, standing at nearly 300 square meters of paved surface area per person, compared to China's 67 square meters per person. China also has a greater quantity of vehicles at 27 million compared to 10.1 million in the United States. However, the U.S. still leads from a per capita basis. Perhaps more important than road mileage and vehicle quantity is the wealth of each population. This is because autonomous and electric vehicles are typically higher priced and considered a consumer discretionary product. The U.S. has over $85,000 in GDP per capita compared to China's $13,000. Therefore, a more affordable price point is required to be widely accepted in China. BYD has recognized this disparity and launched its Dolphin EV with an entry price of just $13,900 USD. To power massive amounts of electric vehicles, charging stations are also required. The U.S. has seen exponential growth of this EV infrastructure and is projected to see a market CAGR of almost 30% through the rest of the decade. Growth of U.S. EV Charging Infrastructure (Grandview Research) However, China's EV charging is perhaps more impressive, reaching 680,000 publicly accessible charging stations. Furthermore, China's EV infrastructure saw an average annual growth of over 60% between 2015 and 2020. Considering per capita GDP, vehicles per GDP, and EV infrastructure, I see the U.S. roughly on par with other international markets looking forward. Therefore, in terms of infrastructure requirements, I see IDRV as equally matched with peer funds. How Tariffs Will Drag Down IDRV Despite the promising factors for European and Chinese companies, tariffs will be a major factor in the outlook for each ETF. BYD's low pricing has resulted in an influx of cheap electric vehicles in Europe. In response, the European Union is seeking tariffs against BYD. The U.S. already has a 27.5% tariff on Chinese-made cars. Furthermore, the next Presidential Administration may make this number even higher. Former President Trump has stated that his administration would enforce a 100% tariff on Chinese cars built in Mexico. Such actions will support U.S. companies while hurting the profitability of Chinese-based companies such as BYD. Therefore, while geography and infrastructure present mixed benefits for IDRV, tariffs present a clear disadvantage for the fund. Current Valuation IDRV has seen the worst recent performance compared to peers, with a -25% one-year price return. While Renault's share price has seen an impressive 45% return over the past year, IDRV has been dragged down by BYD, down roughly 10%, Samsung SDI (XKRX:006400), down 47%, and Porsche (XETR:PAH3), down 25% this past year. In contrast, CARZ and DRIV performed the best with greater weight on U.S. and large tech holdings. All funds significantly underperformed the S&P 500 Index, however. One Year Performance: IDRV and Competitor Funds (Seeking Alpha) As expected, based on its recent performance, CARZ has the highest valuation as measured by its price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios. IDRV is the most attractively valued, with the lowest P/E and P/B ratios. Due to the risk factors for IDRV's holdings already discussed, I do not see IDRV's low P/E and P/B as a signal to buy. Valuation Metrics for IDRV and Peer Competitors     IDRV DRIV CARZ HAIL   P/E ratio 9.08 16.87 19.12 14.29   P/B ratio 1.14 1.74 2.34 1.93   Click to enlarge Source: Compiled by Author from Multiple Sources, 13 Jun 24 Risks to Investors A major risk factor for autonomous vehicles is lawsuits related to accidents. Tesla experienced this risk in 2018 when an Apple engineer was killed by a Tesla Model X operating on autopilot. Nearly 1,000 autopilot related crashes have been investigated by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. While BYD's vehicles have received international safety awards, Tesla has received similar awards. IDRV also has a high amount of volatility as seen with its 3-year beta value of 1.41 and 3-year standard deviation of 31.78%. Tariffs and the significant amount of weight in emerging markets, further fuel IDRV volatility. Therefore, even if IDRV's top holdings outperform U.S. companies, the fund is likely to experience significant volatility. Concluding Summary  Although companies like BYD, Volkswagen, and even Porsche are making strides in EV and autonomous vehicles, the lack of well-established, mega-cap U.S. tech is a disadvantage for IDRV. NVDA, for example, is absent from IDRV and is developing advanced next-generation automotive chips that are cost-effective. While Tesla has had recent stumbles, its size as the largest EV producer by market cap makes it a formidable global competitor. Finally, U.S. tariffs on foreign vehicles are a significant factor that must be considered. For these reasons, I rate IDRV a hold and favor other peer funds, particularly DRV and CARZ, that include a heavier weight on U.S., large tech companies that are making major advancements in autonomous and electric vehicle technologies.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2443644205"}