Tracking John Paulson's Paulson & Company Portfolio - Q1 2024 Update

seekingalpha06-18

Paulson's 13F portfolio value increased to ~$1.45B with 18 securities, top positions include Madrigal Pharma and Bausch Health.John Paulson is known for his leveraged bets against the real-estate ...

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TimArbaevThis article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to John Paulson’s 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Paulson’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 5/15/2024. Please visit our Tracking John Paulson’s Paulson & Company Portfolio series to get an idea of his investment philosophy and our previous update for the fund’s moves during Q4 2023. This quarter, Paulson’s 13F portfolio value increased from ~$1.11B to ~$1.45B. There are 18 13F securities in the portfolio, although only 13 of them are significantly large equity holdings (more than 0.5% of the 13F portfolio). The article is focused on the larger holdings. The top five positions are Madrigal Pharma, Bausch Health, Brightsphere Investment Group, Perpetua Resources, and NovaGold. They add up to ~74% of the portfolio. John Paulson is best known for his highly leveraged bets against the real-estate bubble that netted him billions in the aftermath. To learn more about that, check-out the book “The Greatest Trade Ever”. In July 2020, Paulson announced that they are returning all outside money and are converting to a Family Office structure. Note 1: In August 2021, Paulson called a bubble in crypto (FBTC) (IBIT) (OTCQX:ETHE) saying “I would describe cryptocurrencies as a limited supply of nothing.” But he is not short crypto because of its volatility. Note 2: Paulson & Company is known to have a huge position in Fannie/Freddie (OTCQB:FNMA) (OTCQB:FMCC) (OTCQB:FNMAS) (OTCQB:FMCKP) although the details have not been disclosed. Stake Disposals: SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM): The 1.94% of the portfolio stake in SSRM saw a ~140% stake increase in Q4 2021 at prices between ~$14.50 and ~$20. There was a ~35% selling during Q4 2022 at prices between ~$13 and ~$16.35. The disposal this quarter was at prices between ~$4 and ~$10.70. The stock currently trades at $4.58. Stake Increases: Madrigal Pharma (MDGL): MDGL is now the largest position by far at ~33% of the portfolio. It was established during Q2 2023 at prices between ~$204 and ~$312. The position was increased by 43% in the next quarter at prices between ~$146 and ~$226. The last quarter saw a ~120% stake increase at prices between ~$120 and ~$237. That was followed by a ~60% increase this quarter at prices between ~$171 and ~$283. The stock currently trades at ~$277. Note: They have a ~9% ownership stake in the business. NovaGold Resources (NG): NG is a large (top five) 5.64% of the portfolio long-term stake, established in 2010. Q2 2016 saw a ~28% reduction at prices between $5 and $6.50 and that was followed with a ~13% selling in Q4 2016. Q1 2020 saw a ~15% stake increase at prices between $5.87 and $9.51 while the next quarter saw a ~12% trimming at prices between $7.40 and $12. The last two quarters saw a ~23% increase at prices between $2.28 and $3.80. The stock is currently at $3.20. Note: Paulson has a high cost-basis on NG and controls ~9% of the business. International Tower Hill Mines (THM): THM is a ~3% of the portfolio stake established in the 2013-2015 timeframe at a very low cost-basis. Q4 2020 also saw the purchase of around 2.34M shares at ~$1.40. The stock is now at $0.54. There was a minor ~4% increase this quarter. Note: Paulson has a ~32% ownership stake in International Tower Hill Mines. Stake Decreases: AngloGold Ashanti (AU): AU is a 4.50% position. It is a long-term stake that has been in the portfolio since 2009. Recent activity follows. H1 2020 saw a ~45% reduction at prices between $14 and $30. That was followed with a ~14% selling in Q4 2020. Q3 2022 saw another one-third selling at prices between ~$12 and ~$16. That was followed with an ~80% reduction in the next quarter at prices between ~$12.25 and ~$19.75. The stake was rebuilt during Q1 2023 at prices between ~$17 and ~$24. This quarter saw a ~25% selling at prices between ~$16 and ~$23. The stock is currently at $22.67. Kept Steady: Bausch Health Companies (BHC): BHC position was increased by almost 300% in Q1 2015 at prices between $143 and $205 and another ~340% the following quarter at prices between $197 and $242. Q4 2015 also saw a ~50% increase at prices between $70 and $182. The aggressive buying against falling prices continued in Q2 2016: ~44% increase at prices between $19 and $36. Q2 2020 saw another ~25% stake increase at ~$16.50 per share. The stock currently trades at $6.43, and the stake is now the second-largest position in the portfolio at ~19%. BrightSphere Investment Group (BSIG): BSIG is currently the third largest 13F stake at 14.12% of the portfolio. It was built in Q4 2018 at prices between $10 and $13.30. Q1 2019 saw a huge ~285% stake increase at prices between $11 and $14.25. There was a ~55% reduction in Q4 2021 at ~$31.50 per share as they participated in a fixed-tender-offer by the company. The stock currently trades at $21.78. Note: Paulson’s ownership stake in BSIG is ~20%. Perpetua Resources (PPTA): The ~7% PPTA stake was purchased in Q4 2020 at prices between ~$6 and ~$11. There was a ~18% stake increase in Q3 2021 at prices between ~$4.75 and ~$7.70. The stock currently trades at $6.75. Note: Paulson & Company has a one-third ownership stake in the business. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM): The 3.23% AEM position came about as a result of Agnico’s acquisition of Kirkland Lake Gold in an all-stock deal (0.7935 shares of AEM for each share held) that closed last January. Paulson & Company had a 1.303M share stake in Kirkland Lake Gold, for which they received these shares. There was a ~270% stake increase during Q4 2022 at prices between ~$40 and ~$53.50. Q1 2023 saw an ~80% reduction at prices between ~$45 and ~$58. AEM currently trades at $64.25. Thryv Holdings (THRY): The 3.07% THRY stake was established in Q4 2020 at prices between ~$8 and ~$14. Q1 2021 saw a ~12% trimming at $27 per share. The next two quarters saw another ~25% selling at prices between ~$27 and ~$41.50. The stock currently trades at $18.87. There was a minor ~7% trimming during Q4 2022. Note: Paulson & Company has a 5.8% ownership stake in the business. Newmark Group (NMRK): The 2.30% NMRK stake saw a ~135% stake increase in the last quarter at prices between ~$5.25 and ~$11.15. The stock currently trades at $10.12. Seabridge Gold (SA): The 2.16% SA position saw a ~125% increase in Q4 2020 at prices between ~$17 and ~$21. There was a roughly one-third increase in Q2 2021 at prices between ~$16.15 and ~$19.75. It currently trades below those ranges at $14.37. Equinox Gold (EQX), Trilogy Metals (TMQ), and Tellurian Inc. (TELL): These small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) stakes were kept steady this quarter. The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Paulson’s US stock holdings in Q1 2024:   John Paulson - Paulson & Co Portfolio - Q1 2024 13F Report Q/Q Comparison (John Vincent (author))Source: John Vincent. Data constructed from Paulson & Company’s 13F filings for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. 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