BWG: Rising Foreign Allocation Should Benefit Investors

seekingalpha06-22

haydenbird The BrandywineGLOBAL - Global Income Opportunities Fund (NYSE:BWG) is a closed-end fund, or CEF, that income-focused investors can employ as a method of achieving their goals. This fund is ...

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This fund is ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BWG":"Legg Mason BW Global Income Oppo","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","BK7142":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","BNDW":"Vanguard Total World Bond ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","FAM.AU":"Family Insights Group","BNDX":"国际全球债券ETF-Vanguard","EMB.AU":"EMBELTON LIMITED","EMB":"新兴市场美元债ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","JGH.AU":"JADE GAS HOLDINGS LTD","BK7012":"建筑产品","MMT":"MFS Multimarket Income Trust","JGH":"Nuveen Global High Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest","JNK":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays高收益债","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","FAM":"FAM基金","FCO":"Aberdeen Global Income Fund Inc","ISBC":"投资者银行","DSL":"DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund","BK4211":"区域性银行"},"translate_title":"BWG：外资配置增加应有利于投资者","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AGG":1,"MMT":1,"JNK":1,"JGH.AU":1,"JGH":1,"ISBC":1,"FCO":1,"FAM.AU":1,"FAM":1,"EMB.AU":1,"EMB":1,"BWG":1,"BNDX":1,"BNDW":1,"DSL":1,"US6M.BOND":0.9,"US5Y.BOND":0.9,"US3Y.BOND":0.9,"US30Y.BOND":0.9,"US2Y.BOND":0.9,"US12M.BOND":0.9,"US10Y.BOND":0.9,"FDN":0.9,"US7Y.BOND":0.9,"US912797HE00.BOND":0.6,"US912797GW17.BOND":0.6,"US912797GL51.BOND":0.6,"US912797GK78.BOND":0.6,"US912797GB79.BOND":0.6,"US912797FS14.BOND":0.6},"content_text":"haydenbird The BrandywineGLOBAL - Global Income Opportunities Fund (NYSE:BWG) is a closed-end fund, or CEF, that income-focused investors can employ as a method of achieving their goals. This fund is admittedly not nearly as well known as some of the other international funds that we have discussed in this column, and some of this may be due to the fund manager's relatively small size. Brandywine Global only has approximately $61 billion of assets under management, with most of this being in the fixed income space: Brandywine Global As the name suggests, the majority of the funds that this manager runs are global funds that primarily invest in securities from issuers outside the United States. As such, the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund could be a good way to add some global diversification to your portfolio, which is becoming increasingly important for many American investors. This is important in both the stock and bond categories, but it has really shown its appeal in the bond market this year. As we can see here, American investment-grade bonds have underperformed the rest of the world year-to-date: Seeking Alpha The most common index that is used to track the American investment-grade bond market is the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (AGG) and as we can see here, this index has been the worst performer of this grouping year-to-date. The other two indices shown in the chart track emerging market bonds, iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB) and a global bond ex-US index, Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (BNDX). These indices outperformed the United States during the period, and there are some reasons to believe that this will continue to be the case going forward. The reasons for this include the fiscal problems in the United States that will eventually reduce the desire of foreigners to purchase U.S. Treasury securities as well as the efforts of resource-rich nations such as Russia, Brazil, and South Africa to exclude the U.S. dollar from international trade. The BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund should be able to take advantage of the opportunities created by this long-term trend. As regular readers can likely remember, we previously discussed the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund back in the middle of October 2023. The bond market has been rather volatile since that time, as expectations of large interest rate cuts drove bond prices to very high levels in the final months of last year, but those expectations have since been dashed as inflation continues to be a problem in some countries. We have started to see interest rate cuts in Europe, China, and Canada so far in 2024 though, which naturally will cause bonds denominated in those currencies to rise. These developments and trends will probably lead most investors to expect that the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund has delivered a somewhat middling performance since our last discussion. However, this has not been the case as shares of the fund have risen by 18.90% since the previous article was published: Seeking Alpha As we can clearly see from the chart above, the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund has outperformed both the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index and the Vanguard Total World Bond ETF (BNDW) by quite a lot since the date that the previous article was published. This is something that seems likely to appeal to most investors, as we all like it when a fund manages to outperform the market. Investors in the fund actually did a lot better than the above chart suggests, however. As I stated in a previous article: A simple look at a closed-end fund's share price performance does not necessarily provide an accurate picture of how investors in the fund did during a given period. This is because these funds tend to pay out all of their net investment profits to the shareholders, rather than relying on the capital appreciation of their share price to provide a return. This is the reason why the yields of these funds tend to be much higher than the yield of index funds or most other market assets. The BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund has a yield of 11.39% at the current share price. This is substantially higher than either the domestic or world bond indices:   Asset Current Yield   BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund 11.39%   Vanguard Total World Bond ETF 4.01%   iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF 4.82%   iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF 3.41%   SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) 6.58%   Click to enlarge The yield of the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund also compares pretty well with that of its peers:   Fund Name Morningstar Classification Current Yield   BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund Fixed Income-Taxable-Global Income 11.39%   DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund (DSL) Fixed Income-Taxable-Global Income 10.58%   First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund (FAM) Fixed Income-Taxable-Global Income 11.16%   MFS Multi-Market Income Fund (MMT) Fixed Income-Taxable-Global Income 8.70%   Nuveen Global High Income Fund (JGH) Fixed Income-Taxable-Global Income 9.85%   abrdn Global Income Fund Inc. (FCO) Fixed Income-Taxable-Global Income 14.12%   Click to enlarge Due to the relatively high yield of the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund, we can expect that investors in the fund will actually do substantially better than the share price alone indicates. After all, the distributions that the fund pays out represent a very real return for investors in addition to any share price movements. When we include the distributions in the above performance chart, we get this alternative one: Seeking Alpha As we can immediately see, investors in the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund actually realized a 28.72% total return since we last discussed the fund in mid-October 2023. This is far better than the total return that was experienced by investors in either domestic or global bonds, which should be expected because this fund both had better price appreciation and boasts a much higher yield. Overall, investors are likely to be very pleased with the fund's recent performance. Nine months have passed since we last discussed the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund. As such, a great many things have occurred that could alter our thesis regarding this fund. The fund has also released an updated financial report in the interim period, so we will want to consult that for an update on how well the fund is covering its distribution and how well its portfolio is performing. The remainder of this article will focus specifically on these changes and update the thesis as necessary. About The Fund According to the fund's website, the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund has the primary objective of providing its investors with a very high level of current income. The website only states that this is a debt fund, so the income objective makes sense: Franklin Templeton The first bullet point specifically states that the fund's portfolio will primarily be invested in the sovereign and corporate debt of issuers that are located in countries all over the world. As I stated in the previous article: Fixed income securities are primarily an income vehicle since they have no inherent link to the growth and prosperity of the issuing company. In the case of bonds, these securities also have no net capital gains over their lifetimes, as bonds are both purchased and mature at face value. As bonds are by their very nature income vehicles, the fund's objective makes a great deal of sense. Admittedly, though, the strategy description above is not as informative as I would like. There is, after all, a massive difference between a fund that invests almost entirely in American bonds (which includes foreign securities as an afterthought) and one that invests almost exclusively abroad. The latter fund can do a lot more for those investors who already have substantial American assets and need to increase their international diversification, which is critical for our thesis. The fund's annual report provides a better strategy description: The Fund seeks to provide current income as a primary objective. Capital appreciation is a secondary objective. The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objectives by investing, under normal market conditions, at least 80% of its assets in global fixed income securities. These may include, but are not limited to, sovereign debt of developed and emerging market countries, U.S. and non-U.S. corporate debt, mortgage-backed securities, and currency exposure. The Fund may manage its currency exposure through the use of futures, forwards, and other derivative instruments, for hedging and investment purposes. The Fund's specific investments will shift as the Fund rotates among countries, credits, and currencies to find the most attractive values over time. Under normal market conditions, no more than 55% of the Fund's managed assets may be rated below investment grade by a nationally recognized statistical rating organization or, if unrated, that we determined to be of comparable quality; provided, however, that the quality of a security will be based on the highest rating it receives. In addition, under normal market conditions, at least 40% of the Fund's managed assets will be invested in non-U.S. countries or currencies. The Fund may use leverage to enhance current income. This description provides the information that we really wanted to see earlier. In particular, we note that the fund's strategy description explicitly states that at least 40% of the fund's assets will be invested outside the United States. That was the case the last time that we looked at this fund. Recall that back in October 2023, the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund had 49.76% of its assets invested in the United States. That percentage today is even lower: Franklin Templeton This chart shows the country of origin for the assets that were held by the fund on May 31, 2024. As we can see, the fund now has a 47.60% allocation to the United States. That is 52.40% of the fund's assets invested in securities from foreign issuers, which is a 216 basis-point increase in the fund's foreign allocation over the past nine months. That is something that any investor who is looking to increase their own foreign allocation will likely appreciate. In my previous article on the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund, I pointed out that one of the biggest risks for investors in U.S. bonds is the outsized American fiscal budget deficit. That problem appears to be getting worse. A few days ago, the Congressional Budget Office stated that the American fiscal budget deficit for 2024 is projected to come in at $1.9 trillion, which represents a $400 billion increase from the budget deficit that was projected four months ago. The U.S. Debt Clock currently puts the national debt at 122.30% of gross domestic product: US Debt Clock Let us compare this to the debt-to-GDP ratios of the other countries whose securities comprise the largest national origins in this fund:   Country Debt-to-GDP Ratio   United States 122.30%   Colombia 60.0%   Mexico 58.7%   Brazil 88.9%   Canada 98.7%   South Africa 72.2%   Panama 63.66%   Israel 60.7%   United Kingdom 97.6%   Argentina 85.2%   Zambia 56.2%   France 111%   Uruguay 67.5%   Chile 38%   Click to enlarge As we can clearly see, the United States has a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than any of the other countries whose securities represent a significant proportion of the fund's total assets. This presents a few risks for investors in American debt securities. At some point, foreign (or domestic) investors will start refusing to purchase U.S. Treasuries without being offered a substantially higher interest rate than the American economy can afford. The Federal Reserve will probably have to monetize the fiscal deficit, which will then result in most American bonds offering negative real yields. There are very few people who will willingly purchase a security with a negative real yield. Foreign bonds, especially those from less indebted nations and paying coupons in foreign currencies, should outperform U.S. bonds in such an environment. As such, it would be a good idea to include such securities in a portfolio. When we consider this, it is nice to see that the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund is actually increasing its allocation to foreign fixed income securities at the expense of domestic ones. Leverage As is the case with most closed-end funds, the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund employs leverage as a method of boosting the effective yield of its portfolio. I explained how this works in my previous article on this fund:  In short, the fund borrows money and then uses that borrowed money to purchase both domestic and foreign bonds, including bonds issued by entities in emerging markets. As long as the yield that the fund receives from the purchased assets is higher than the interest rate that it has to pay on the borrowed money, the strategy works pretty well to boost the effective yield of the portfolio. As this fund is capable of borrowing money at institutional rates, which are considerably lower than retail rates, this will usually be the case. However, the use of debt in this fashion is a double-edged sword. This is because leverage boosts both gains and losses. As such, we want to ensure that the fund is not employing too much leverage since that would expose us to an excessive amount of risk. I generally do not like a fund's leverage to exceed a third as a percentage of its assets for this reason.  As of the time of writing, the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund has leveraged assets comprising 42.31% of its portfolio. This is a slight improvement over the 43.53% leverage ratio that the fund had the last time that we discussed it, but overall this is still a very high level of leverage. As I explained previously: As such, this fund is almost certainly going to be much more volatile than most global bond funds, and its downside risks are amplified in a worst-case scenario. The BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund employs significantly more leverage than its peers:   Fund Name Leverage Ratio   BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund 42.31%   DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund 21.77%   First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund 19.78%   MFS Multimarket Income Trust 26.00%   Nuveen Global High Income Fund 27.92%   abrdn Global Income Fund 30.52%   Click to enlarge (All figures from CEF Data) This chart makes it clear that the fund is employing far more leverage than its peers as a part of its investment strategy. This could suggest that this fund is using too much leverage than is prudent. After all, leverage is a method of boosting returns, so it seems likely that the fund's peers would use it to a greater extent if it was safe to do so. After all, fund managers are under considerable pressure to maximize the returns that they provide to their investors. The leverage decline that we see over the past nine months is minimal considering that the fund's share price has appreciated by 18.90% over the period. The solution to this situation can be found in the fact that the fund's portfolio did not gain 18.90% over the period. This chart shows the fund's net asset value since October 19, 2023: Barchart As we can clearly see, the fund's net asset value only appreciated by 9.25% over the period. This is far less than the fund's share price gains, which tells us that the fund's shares are now substantially more expensive than they were several months ago relative to the actual value of the underlying assets in the portfolio. The increase in the net asset value also tells us why the fund's leverage declined over the interim period. After all, the fact that the portfolio is now larger means that the outstanding debt is a smaller proportion of a larger portfolio. The decrease in leverage is nice to see overall since it reduces the fund's risks, but it is still higher than we would really like to see. Distribution Analysis The primary objective of the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund is to provide its investors with a very high level of current income. To this end, the fund pays a monthly distribution of $0.08 per share ($0.96 per share annually). This gives it an 11.39% yield at the current share price. As we saw in the introduction, this distribution yield compares reasonably well to that of the fund's peers. Unfortunately, the fund has not been especially consistent regarding its distribution over the years: CEF Connect The fund's distribution has been reasonably stable since March 2023, though, when it cut the payout. Let us take a look at the fund's financial reports to see how well it can sustain the current payout. As of the time of writing, the most recent financial report that is available for the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund is the annual report for the full-year period that ended on October 31, 2023. This is certainly disappointing, as the information that is included in this report is eight months out of date. However, it is newer than the report that we had available to us the last time that we discussed this fund, so it should work to provide an update. For the full-year period that ended on October 31, 2023, the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund received $21,263,439 in interest and $238,751 in dividends from the assets in its portfolio. From this total, we subtract the money that the fund had to pay in foreign withholding taxes. This gives it a total investment income of $21,372,130 for the full-year period. The fund paid its expenses out of this amount, which left it with $13,645,995 available to shareholders. That was not sufficient to cover the $16,791,836 that the fund paid out in distributions during the period. The fund was unable to make up the difference via capital gains. For the full-year period, the fund reported net realized losses of $22,854,816 that were partially offset by $16,567,357 net unrealized gains. Overall, the fund's net assets declined by $9,433,300 after accounting for all inflows and outflows during the period. Thus, the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund failed to cover its distributions for the period. The most recent fiscal year represents the second consecutive year for which the fund failed to cover its distributions. For the full-year period that ended on October 31, 2022, the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund saw its net assets decline by $70,730,741 after all inflows and outflows were considered. This is very concerning for distribution sustainability. Fortunately, it does appear that the fund has managed to solve this problem for the current fiscal year. This chart shows its net asset value since October 31, 2023: Barchart As we can see, the fund's net asset value per share has increased by 9.90% since the closing date of the most recent financial report. This tells us that the fund has managed to earn sufficient investment profits to cover all the distributions that it has paid out since October 2023 and still has some excess left over. If the fund can sustain the current level of performance, then it should be okay to maintain its distribution going forward. The fact that a few central banks around the world have started cutting interest rates should help the fund generate higher capital gains but will ultimately decrease its investment income. Overall, the fund should be okay going forward. Valuation Shares of the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund are currently trading at a 9.12% discount to net asset value. This is quite a bit more expensive than the 10.49% discount that the shares have had on average over the past month. Thus, it might be possible to get a better price by waiting a bit before buying in. Conclusion In conclusion, the BrandywineGLOBAL Global Income Opportunities Fund looks like a pretty decent global fund that investors can employ to improve their global diversification. This is something that most American investors need right now as many are over-allocated to the American markets, but there are significant risks in these markets due to the very high and persistent debt issuance in the nation. While it may be a long way off before any problems arise, there is no way to know for certain, and it may be best to have good global diversification as a precaution. This fund could be a reasonable way to do that, despite its rather poor fiscal 2023 performance. The fund's financial performance seems to be improving, though, and it trades discounted to the fair value of its assets. As such, it might be worth considering right now.  Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. 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