Massive ASX mining stocks review: Coal, Gold, Lithium, Uranium

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This is Part 3 of a series of articles investigating two massive research reports from major brokers Macquarie and Morgan Stanley released earlier in the week detailing changes in their outlooks for ...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMassive ASX mining stocks review: Coal, Gold, Lithium, Uranium\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-01 08:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/massive-asx-mining-stocks-review-coal-gold-lithium-uranium><strong>LiveWire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This is Part 3 of a series of articles investigating two massive research reports from major brokers Macquarie and Morgan Stanley released earlier in the week detailing changes in their outlooks for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/massive-asx-mining-stocks-review-coal-gold-lithium-uranium\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"MIN.AU","symbol_name":"MINERAL RESOURCES LTD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/massive-asx-mining-stocks-review-coal-gold-lithium-uranium","article_id":"2448872269","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"livewire_stock","url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/massive-asx-mining-stocks-review-coal-gold-lithium-uranium","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2448872269","pubTimestamp":1719793506,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"livewire_stock","name":"Livewire Markets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"You can read Part 1 on Iron Ore and ASX Iron Ore Stocks here.You can read Part 2 on Aluminium, Copper, Manganese and Nickel and ASX Base Metals Stocks here.Today we’re going to review the brokers’ updates for the remaining commodities, so this means coal, gold, lithium, and uranium. We’ll also look at each broker’s updated views on key ASX stocks that produce these commodities with over 30 companies covered.Macquarie describes its overall view on metallurgical coal  as “overweight”. The broker believes an even slower recovery in Australian shipments will “keep the market tight, despite Mongolian exports beating expectations”.Macquarie has increased its 2024 thermal coal price target by 16% to US$140/t and its 2025 price target by 19% to US$131/t. 2026-27 targets are also increased by up to 20%.Exhibit 2: India's commodity demand as a % of global demand. Source: Woodmac, Morgan Stanley Research. Bulks show both share of total demand and seaborne. (From “St","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"MIN.AU":"MINERAL RESOURCES LTD","MQG.AU":"Macquarie","GOR.AU":"GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LTD","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","SFR.AU":"SANDFIRE RESOURCES LTD","EVN":"Eaton Vance Municipal Income Tru","NEM.AU":"Newmont Corp","WHC.AU":"WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","PRU.AU":"PERSEUS MINING LTD","GL1.AU":"Global Lithium Resources Limited","MIN":"MFS Intermediate Income Trust","CXO.AU":"CORE LITHIUM LTD","WGX.AU":"WESTGOLD RESOURCES LTD","NHC.AU":"NEW HOPE CORP LTD","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","RRL.AU":"REGIS RESOURCES LTD","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","GMD.AU":"Genesis Minerals Ltd","BK7083":"煤与消费用燃料","RSG.AU":"RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED","SBM.AU":"ST BARBARA LTD","IGO.AU":"IGO LTD","LTM.AU":"Arcadium Lithium plc","RMS.AU":"RAMELIUS RESOURCES LTD","PDN.AU":"PALADIN ENERGY LTD","WAF.AU":"WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LTD","LTR.AU":"LIONTOWN RESOURCES LTD","GLN.AU":"GALAN LITHIUM LTD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4588":"碎股","SYA.AU":"SAYONA MINING LTD","BOE.AU":"BOSS ENERGY LTD","DEG.AU":"DE GREY MINING LTD","PLS.AU":"PILBARA MINERALS LTD","PMT.AU":"Patriot Battery Metals Inc.","AGY.AU":"ARGOSY MINERALS LTD","EVN.AU":"EVOLUTION MINING LTD","CRN.AU":"CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCE-CDI","CMM.AU":"CAPRICORN METALS LTD","BGL.AU":"BELLEVUE GOLD LTD","BK4156":"煤与消费用燃料","A11.AU":"Atlantic Lithium Limited","PLL.AU":"PIEDMONT LITHIUM INC-CDI","NST.AU":"NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD","UEC":"Uranium Energy Corp","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"translate_title":"大量澳大利亚证券交易所矿业股回顾：煤炭、黄金、锂、铀","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"RED.AU":1,"MIN":1,"MIN.AU":1,"NEM.AU":1,"NHC.AU":1,"NST.AU":1,"PDN.AU":1,"PLL.AU":1,"PLS.AU":1,"PMT.AU":1,"PRU.AU":1,"AGY.AU":1,"RMS.AU":1,"RRL.AU":1,"RSG.AU":1,"SBM.AU":1,"SFR.AU":1,"SYA.AU":1,"UEC":1,"WAF.AU":1,"WGX.AU":1,"WHC.AU":1,"EVN":1,"A11.AU":1,"BGL.AU":1,"BOE.AU":1,"CMM.AU":1,"CRN.AU":1,"CXO.AU":1,"DEG.AU":1,"LTR.AU":1,"EVN.AU":1,"GL1.AU":1,"GMD.AU":1,"GOR.AU":1,"IGO.AU":1,"LTM.AU":1,"GLN.AU":1,"MQG.AU":0.9},"content_text":"This is Part 3 of a series of articles investigating two massive research reports from major brokers Macquarie and Morgan Stanley released earlier in the week detailing changes in their outlooks for several major commodities and the ASX stocks that produce them.\nYou can read Part 1 on Iron Ore and ASX Iron Ore Stocks here.\nYou can read Part 2 on Aluminium, Copper, Manganese and Nickel and ASX Base Metals Stocks here.\nToday we’re going to review the brokers’ updates for the remaining commodities, so this means coal, gold, lithium, and uranium. We’ll also look at each broker’s updated views on key ASX stocks that produce these commodities with over 30 companies covered.\nCOAL OUTLOOK\nMacquarie\nMacquarie describes its overall view on metallurgical coal (“met coal”) as “overweight”. The broker believes an even slower recovery in Australian shipments will “keep the market tight, despite Mongolian exports beating expectations”.\nMacquarie has cut their 2024 met coal price target by 9% to US$274/t but left their 2025 price target unchanged at US$250/t in 2025. Macquarie notes these targets are 2% and 3% above consensus.\nLonger term, met coal price targets have increased more substantially, up by +33% in 2026 and by +19% in 2027 (both to US$320/t). Macquarie notes these targets are more than 40% above consensus.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFigure 4 - Met-Coal Price Update versus consensus (US$/t FOB Australia. Source: Macquarie Research, Bloomberg, Visible Alpha, June 2024. (From: Commodities update: Hard Knock Li-Fe, Macquarie Research, June 21, 2024)\nMacquarie describes its overall view on thermal coal as “underweight”. The broker has deferred anticipated declines in import demand from China and India. Assuming this, the market should remain “tight, for now”.\nMacquarie has increased its 2024 thermal coal price target by 16% to US$140/t and its 2025 price target by 19% to US$131/t. 2026-27 targets are also increased by up to 20%.\nMacquarie notes that while these appear to be significant upward revisions, they only align the broker with consensus in 2024-25, and put them less below consensus 2026-27.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFigure 8 - Thermal Coal Price Update versus consensus (US$/t). Source: Macquarie Research, Bloomberg, Visible Alpha, June 2024. (From: Commodities update: Hard Knock Li-Fe, Macquarie Research, June 21, 2024)\nMorgan Stanley\nMorgan Stanley sees met coal “supported from India demand and supply tightness”.\n“As growth continues to shift to India, we see met coal imports rising driven by India's infrastructure focus and met coal port inventories remain at pre-2023 levels. Supply from Australia has also disappointed and as such we see upside risk from here.”\nMorgan Stanley did not make any major revisions to their met coal price targets which sit at US$277/t in 2024, US$260/t in 2025, and US$238/t in 2026.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nExhibit 2: India's commodity demand as a % of global demand. Source: Woodmac, Morgan Stanley Research. Bulks show both share of total demand and seaborne. (From “Strategy Q3: Bulks over Base”, Morgan Stanley Research, June 21, 2024)\nMorgan Stanley increased their thermal coal (Newcastle) price targets by between 9%-15% over the next three years. They now sit at US$135/t in 2024, US$120/t in 2025, and US$115/t in 2026.\nGOLD AND SILVER OUTLOOK\nMacquarie\nMacquarie describes its overall view on gold as “even-weight”. They note that gold has “performed impressively” on the back of rate cut expectations, challenging fiscal outlooks, and strong Chinese investor demand that is expected to persist.\nMacquarie notes silver is also benefiting from the above factors, but that it’s “also benefiting from its industrial gearing to the energy transition”.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFigure 7 - Gold Price Update versus consensus (US $/t). Source: Macquarie Research, Bloomberg, Visible Alpha, June 2024. (From: Commodities update: Hard Knock Li-Fe, Macquarie Research, June 21, 2024)\nThe broker increased its 2024 gold price target by 7% to US$2,276/oz and its 2025 price target by 22% to US$2,425/oz. These targets are 6% and 9% respectively above consensus.\nMacquarie is forecasting the gold price to peak at US$2,500/oz in mid-2025, and then average US$2,200/oz in 2026 (this target increased by 21%). The broker's long-term forecast, that is, beyond 2028 is up 9% to $US1,800/oz in real terms.\nMacquarie’s silver price targets are as follows: US$30.75/oz in FY25, US$30.25 in FY26, US$26.50/oz in FY27, and US$25.50/oz in FY28.\nMorgan Stanley\nMorgan Stanley expects gold to continue to be supported in the second half of 2024, “central bank buying and falling real yields”.\nThe broker’s gold price targets are as follows: US$2,368/oz in 2024 (+7%), US$2,538/oz in 2025 (+17%), US$2,200 in 2026 (+10%), US$2,200/oz in 2027 (+22%), US$2,000/oz in 2028 (+11%), and US$1,604/oz in the long term (-1%) (i.e. 2030 and beyond).\nLITHIUM OUTLOOK\nMacquarie\nMacquarie describes its overall view on lithium as “underweight”.\nThe broker cut its 2024 lithium carbonate price target by 27%, and its 2024 spodumene price target by 24%. 2025 price targets for each are cut by 35%.\nMacquarie blames the cuts on “short-term demand weakness and committed supply unable to react”. The supply overhang would likely linger through 2026 before “a tighter market leads to a modest price recovery”.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFigure 5 - Spodumene Price Update versus. Source: Macquarie Research, Bloomberg, Visible Alpha, June 2024. (From: Commodities update: Hard Knock Li-Fe, Macquarie Research, June 21, 2024)\nThe broker notes that its spodumene price target in 2024 of US$1,056/t and in 2025 of US$975/t are 29% and 31% below consensus respectively – and that it’s also below spot pricing.\nSuch a low price could cause a “host of project deferrals”. The market should start to balance by 2026 with the spodumene price recovering to US$1,363/t (15% below consensus). This would “not be enough to sanction new green field developments”.\nFrom 2027, “continued demand growth” would help the spodumene price recover to US$1,750/t (in line with consensus). This would be “enough to drive a supply response, but the lag between signal and response drives a deficit”.\nIn 2028, Macquarie’s spodumene price target of US$1925/t is 10% above consensus, and their long-term target (i.e., beyond 2028) of US$1,500/t is 15% above consensus. \nMorgan Stanley\n“We see Li remaining subdued as China's lithium carbonate inventory continues to move higher coupled with potentially weakening ex-China demand for Chinese EVs driven by EU/US tariffs.”\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nExhibit 8: China's lithium carbonate inventory (kt/week). Source: SMM, Morgan Stanley Research. (From “Strategy Q3: Bulks over Base”, Morgan Stanley Research, June 21, 2024)\nMorgan Stanley’s spodumene price targets are as follows: US$1,003/t in 2024 (-18%), US$1,035/t in 2025 (-23%), US$1,350 in 2026 (unchanged), US$1,350/t in 2027 (unchanged), US$1,260/t in 2028 (unchanged), and US$1,414/t in the long term (-7%) (i.e. 2030 and beyond).\nURANIUM OUTLOOK\nMacquarie\nMacquarie did not provide any specific commentary for uranium or price targets.\nMorgan Stanley\nMorgan Stanley did not provide specific commentary on uranium but did provide the following price targets: US$82/lb in 2024, US$79/lb in 2025, US$68/lb in 2026.\nASX COMMODITIES STOCK RATINGS AND PRICE TARGET CHANGES\nCoal\n*Macquarie Coal Coverage*\nOUTPERFORM\nCoronado Global Resources (ASX: CRN) – Price Target: $2.00⬆️ vs $1.80\n“CRN is our met coal preference with material EPS upgrades and a relative attractive valuation to peers”\nWhitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) – Price Target: $9.00\n“WHC is our key pick in the [coal] space”\nNEUTRAL\nNew Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC) – Price Target: $4.00⬇️ vs $4.10\nRating upgraded from UNDERPERFORM due to a “more constructive view on thermal coal”\n*Morgan Stanley Coal Coverage*\nOVERWEIGHT\nWhitehaven Coal (WHC) – Price Target: $9.75⬆️ vs $9.65\n“We think the stock remains cheap with FY25e EV/EBITDA of 3.8x. FID Winchester South would boost valuation further. Further, running spot prices have a significant impact on our base-case value and FCF yield forecast”\nGold and Silver\n*Macquarie Gold and Silver Coverage*\nOUTPERFORM\nBellevue Gold (ASX: BGL) – Price Target: $2.10⬆️ vs $2.00\n\nRating upgraded from NEUTRAL\n“We suspect FY25 guidance could disappoint for BGL (mainly costs - but later constructive on the 1.5Mtpa study)”\n\nDe Grey Mining (ASX: DEG) – Price Target: $1.80⬆️ vs $1.68\n“Delivering on the overall inventory growth presents the key risk to our base case”\nEvolution Mining (ASX: EVN) – Price Target: $4.30⬆️ vs $4.00\n\nRating upgraded from NEUTRAL\n“While EVN is upgraded to an Outperform it remains our least preferred of the three large-cap gold stocks as we continue to see risk to Red Lake's long-term outlook and as it has the heaviest balance sheet”\n\nGenesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) – Price Target: $2.10⬆️ vs $2.00\n\n“In gold, we like RED and GMD”\nBroker notes “potential tailwinds from permitting at Tower Hill”\n\nGold Road Resources (ASX: GOR) – Price Target: $1.90⬆️ vs $1.70\n\nRating upgraded from NEUTRAL\nBroker sees “EPS improvements over the near term”\n\nNewmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) – Price Target: $83⬆️ vs $71.00\n\n“We prefer NEM over NST and EVN”\n“We switch our senior gold producer preference to NEM due to its increasing margin expansion”\n“NEM sees the most meaningful EPS upgrades which average 66% over the next 5-years, assisted by its higher cost base (leverage) and a lack of meaningful hedge exposure”\n\nNorthern Star Resources (ASX: NST) – Price Target: $18.00⬆️ vs $17.00\n\n“NST, which has pure gold exposure, averages a 39% EPS improvement over the next 5-years”\n“While we remain constructive on NST longer-term, due to its sector-leading growth outlook, we see near-term risk to FY25 guidance for NST (compared to NEM and EVN)”\n\nPerseus Mining (ASX: PRU) – Price Target: $3.00⬆️ vs $2.70\n“From the smaller-cap producers, our top pick is PRU with its strong cash generation (FCF of 19% in FY25) and development outlook led by the recently acquired Nyanzaga asset in Tanzania”\nRed 5 (ASX: RED) – Price Target: $0.55⬆️ vs $0.50\n\n“In gold, we like RED and GMD”\n“from FY24-FY28 RED's EPS more than triples on average largely due to earnings coming off a small base”\n\nRamelius Resources (ASX: RMS) – Price Target: $2.10⬆️ vs $2.00\n\nRating upgraded from NEUTRAL\n“RMS' study for Rebecca could be softer than the market expects, in our view.”\n\nRegis Resources (ASX: RRL) – Price Target: $2.90⬆️ vs $2.60\n“The timing of government approvals of the McPhillamys Project in NSW the updated DFS for the project remains key to RRL’s longer-term outlook and an important catalyst”\nResolute Mining (ASX: RSG) – Price Target: $0.70⬆️ vs $0.60\n\nBroker sees “EPS improvements over the near term”\n“Execution of the Syama expansion project remains key to our outlook for RSG”\n\nSt Barbara (ASX: SBM) – Price Target: $0.28⬆️ vs $0.25\n\nRating upgraded from NEUTRAL\n“Further optimisation work for the Simberi Sulphides Project remains important while permitting at Atlantic is crucial longer-term”\n\nWest African Resources (ASX: WAF) – Price Target: $2.10⬆️ vs $1.60\n\nBroker sees “EPS improvements over the near term”\n“The volumes and grade from the underground remains important for our near-term production assumptions\n“Our longer-term outlook relies on a successful development of Kiaka”\n\nWestgold Resources (ASX: WGX) – Price Target: $2.80⬆️ vs $2.20\n\nRating upgraded from NEUTRAL\n“Our top four target price upgrades are all (or very soon to be) unhedged gold producers [like] WGX”\n“Timely development of the high-grade Great Fingall mine remains key to our mid-term outlook along with continued output growth from Bluebird. We also assume WGX completes its acquisition of Karora”\n\nNEUTRAL\nCapricorn Metals (ASX: CMM) – Price Target: $5.10⬆️ vs $4.70\n\nRating upgraded from UNDERPERFORM\n“CMM could see slower-than expected permitting for Mt Gibson”, and delivery of this project remains “important for CMM’s longer-term outlook”\n\n*Morgan Stanley Gold and Silver Coverage*\nOVERWEIGHT\nEvolution Mining (EVN) – Price Target: $4.15⬆️ vs $3.90\n\nBroker notes current EVN share price implies “the lowest gold price for our coverage at US$1820/oz”\nBroker notes approximately 30% revenue from copper, and EVN is preferred to Sandfire Resources (SFR)\nBroker notes EVN has “little to no hedging allowing for more potential upside vs NST”\n“There remains opportunity at Red Lake (from CY32+) and Northparkes (mine life extension with capex-light approach)”\n\nRegis Resources (RRL) – Price Target: $2.10⬇️ vs $2.50\n\nBroker notes RRL has “little to no hedging allowing for more potential upside vs NST”\n“We like RRL's unhedged position to gold prices with the company set to generate high FCF yields of 20%+ for FY25e”\n\nEQUAL-WEIGHT\nNorthern Star Resources (NST) – Price Target: $14.90⬆️ vs $14.50\n\n“We see the KCGM mill expansion and potential for Fimiston underground being developed as being largely priced-in to the stock”\nKCGM mill expansion carries with it “potential for capex risks”\n“Given the catalysts available, we see both upside and downside risks”\n\nLithium\n*Macquarie Lithium Coverage*\nOUTPERFORM\nArcadium Lithium (ASX: LTM) – Price Target: $6.60⬇️ vs $9.40\n\nLTM's hedged LiOH exposure provides support\n“Longer term it recovers and has the growth pipeline to support its valuation, albeit at lower levels than we previously had ascribed”\n\nPatriot Battery Metals (ASX: PMT) – Price Target: $1.50⬇️ vs $1.90\n“incorporating lower lithium price forecasts and changing our assumed equity funding assumptions drives 1-18% EPS increases in FY25-28”\nPiedmont Lithium (ASX: PLL) – Price Target: $0.25⬇️ vs $0.36\n“PLL’s spodumene production is ramping up with more spodumene shipments expected in CY24. We cut our earnings significantly to losses until CY27 before profitability is restored”\nNEUTRAL\nMineral Resources (ASX: MIN) – Price Target: $62.00⬇️ vs $75.00\n\nRating downgraded from OUTPERFORM\n“MIN gets hit with lithium and iron ore price cuts at the same time; its EPS is cut 96%/55% across FY25/26”\n\nPilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) – Price Target: $3.25⬇️ vs $4.20\n\n“PLS's target price of A$3.25ps has reduced by 23% on the back of 36-66% earnings changes across FY25-27”\n“still prefer MIN over IGO and PLS”\n\nIGO (ASX: IGO) – Price Target: $6.00⬇️ vs $7.60\n\n“IGO's target price of A$6.00ps has reduced by 21% on the back of 40-60% EPS declines”\n“Like PLS, IGO benefits from a tier one asset base and a well capitalised balance sheet, which minimises its EPS impact”\n\nLiontown Resources (ASX: LTR) – Price Target: $1.05⬇️ vs $1.30\n“we incorporate lower lithium prices which drives material EPS reductions in FY24, 91% reductions in FY26, and 26-32% reductions in FY27-28”\nCore Lithium (ASX: CXO) – Price Target: $0.09⬇️ vs $0.15\n“we push back an assumed Finiss restart by an additional 12 months to FY27 in addition to incorporating lower lithium price forecasts”\nSayona Mining (ASX: SYA) – Price Target: $0.04\n“We cut our estimates for SYA, where earnings are negative until FY28”\nGlobal Lithium Resources (ASX: GL1) – Price Target: $0.30\n“GL1 suffers development leverage from the changes in our price forecast, and will need to defer its project in our view”\nAtlantic Lithium (ASX: A11) – Price Target: $0.42⬇️ vs $0.46\n\nRating downgraded from OUTPERFORM\n“medium term cuts drive negative until FY27, after which production leads to profitability”\n\nUNDERPERFORM\nArgosy Minerals (ASX: AGY) – Price Target: $0.08⬇️ vs $0.16\nRating downgraded from NEUTRAL\nGalan Lithium (ASX: GLN) – Price Target: $0.20⬇️ vs $0.25\n\nRating downgraded from NEUTRAL\n“GLN suffers acutely from the changes in our price forecast, with negative earnings out to FY28”\n\n*Morgan Stanley Lithium Coverage*\nOVERWEIGHT\nMineral Resources (MIN) – Price Target: $79.00⬇️ vs $85.50\n“We like MIN's commodity mix, with an improving backdrop for iron ore, especially as the Ashburton iron ore project begins to ramp. We see MIN's leverage levels improving from FY25 onwards”\nUNDERWEIGHT\nPilbara Minerals (PLS) – Price Target: $2.75⬇️ vs $3.35\n“Limited LCE growth vs peers over the next few years. We remain wary of further capex/cost increases as the P1000 expansion project ramps up”\nIGO (IGO) – Price Target: $5.05⬇️ vs $6.05\n“IGO offers diversified exposure to clean energy metals and despite seeing value in this theme, we think this is more than accounted for in the current stock price. We remain cautious on several risk factors such as: higher capex, slower ramp-up at Kwinana, volume build at Greenbushes”\nUranium\n*Macquarie Uranium Coverage*\nN/a\n*Morgan Stanley Uranium Coverage*\nOVERWEIGHT\nPaladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Price Target: $16.65⬇️ vs $17.45\n\n“We think the [Langer Heinrich] restart should be relatively straightforward, with some debottlenecking initiatives helping improve production from historical operating rates”\n“Key growth option is Michelin (6Mlb p.a. project) in Canada, which, alongside LH, could make PDN a sizeable uranium player vs international peers”\nFY25 and FY26 earnings benefit from increases to our uranium price forecast.\n\nEQUAL-WEIGHT\nBoss Energy (ASX: BOE) – Price Target: $4.65⬆️ vs $4.60\n\n“BOE expects to restart its flagship Honeymoon mine in 1HCY24. We see risks around ramp-up at the asset”\n“We also see risks to realizing cost savings per BOE's 2021 Enhanced Feasibility study, especially in an inflationary environment”\n“Recently acquired US asset, Alta Mesa, has limited valuation impact as it is a small project (1.5Mlpba 100%), with BOE at only 30% ownership”\n\n\nThis article first appeared on Market Index on Friday 28 July 2024.\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? 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