ASX 200 to kick off FY25 in red, S&P 500 gives back early gains

LiveWire07-01

ASX 200 futures are trading 35 points lower, down -0.45% as of 8:30 am AEST. Source: Market Index S&P 500 SESSION CHART S&P 500 tumbles in late afternoon trade (Source: TradingView)...

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Relatively uneventful session outside of a few themes – US May core PCE showed continued disinflation momentum, consumer spending growth was weaker than expected, Nike earnings underwhelmed. US 10-year yield ticked higher throughout the session, up 11 bps to a near three-week high of 4.40%. Major US benchmarks mostly higher in June, led by the Nasdaq , S&P 500 , Dow  and Russell 2000 . First-half bullish highlights – Nvidia up over 150%, above-trend US economic growth, choppy disinflation, consensus for double-digit 2024 S&P 500 earnings growth, US$1tn 2024 buyback expectations and strong inflow trends . French election sparks domestic market turmoil with bonds, stocks and Euro under pressure . Nestle forecasting stable sales growth for remainder of year amid easing cost inflatio","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克","AP":"安博科-匹兹堡","SGLLV.AU":"RICEGROWERS LIMITED","BK4111":"出版","BK7028":"食品分销商",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4006":"钢铁","BK7505":"食品股","CTT":"CatchMark Timber Trust Inc. 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200将以红色开启2025财年，标普500回吐早期涨幅","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CLSA":1,"VOO":1,"SPY":1,"SGLLV.AU":1,"REP.AU":1,"NYT":1,"GNC.AU":1,"FT":1,"CTT.AU":1,"CTT":1,"CSR.AU":1,"CSR":1,".SPX":1,"CAM.AU":1,"ANZ.AU":1,"AP":1,"NKE":0.81,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"ASX 200 futures are trading 35 points lower, down -0.45% as of 8:30 am AEST.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Market Index\nS&P 500 SESSION CHART\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nS&P 500 tumbles in late afternoon trade (Source: TradingView)\nOVERNIGHT MARKETS\n\n\nMajor US benchmarks finished mostly lower and near worst levels after a late-session selloff, likely attributed to quarter-end flows \n\nRelatively uneventful session outside of a few themes – US May core PCE showed continued disinflation momentum, consumer spending growth was weaker than expected, Nike earnings underwhelmed\n\nUS 10-year yield ticked higher throughout the session, up 11 bps to a near three-week high of 4.40%\n\nMajor US benchmarks mostly higher in June, led by the Nasdaq (+5.96%), S&P 500 (+3.47%), Dow (+1.12%) and Russell 2000 (-1.08%)\n\nFirst-half bullish highlights – Nvidia up over 150%, above-trend US economic growth, choppy disinflation, consensus for double-digit 2024 S&P 500 earnings growth, US$1tn 2024 buyback expectations and strong inflow trends (US$130bn to US equities)\n\nFirst-half bearish highlights – Hawkish repricing of Fed easing expectations, stick services inflation, exhausted excess savings, dampened corporate pricing lower, breadth concerns, elevated sentiment and geopolitical tensions \n\nWall Street bears struggle to convince optimistic clients, saying they have embraced 'fanatical thinking' (FT)\n\nFrench election sparks domestic market turmoil with bonds, stocks and Euro under pressure (Bloomberg)\n\nSTOCKS\n\n\nAmazon intends to invest over US$100bn in AI and data centers over next decade (WSJ)\n\nFord's planned US$30,000 EV expected to be profitable in two years (Reuters)\n\nNestle forecasting stable sales growth for remainder of year amid easing cost inflation (Reuters)\n\nNike tanks 20% to 4-year low following Q4 sales miss and FY25 guidance cut amid softness in lifestyle products and worse-than-expected China performance (Forbes)\n\nCENTRAL BANKS\n\n\nAtlanta Fed President Bostic still anticipates rate cut in Q4 amid disinflation signs (Bloomberg)\n\nRBA Deputy Governor Hauser says mistake to base policy decision on single CPI print (Bloomberg)\n\nGEOPOLITICS\n\n\nBiden underwhelms in debate with Trump ( Bloomberg)\n\nUS and European diplomats warn Hezbollah against striking Israel as IDF mulls operation into Lebanon (AP)\n\nIran warns of 'obliterating war' if Israel launches large attack on Lebanon (NYT)\n\nLe Pen's far-right party bolsters its lead ahead of the first round of France's snap legislative election on Sunday (Bloomberg)\n\nECONOMY\n\n\nFed’s preferred inflation gauge rises at the slowest pace in six months – May core PCE up 0.1% month-on-month, in-line with consensus (Bloomberg)\n\nChina's factory activity falls for a second month in June while services activity slumps to five-month low (Reuters)\n\nUK GDP grew faster than expected in Q1 as consumer spent more (Bloomberg)\n\nJapan industrial production, Tokyo core inflation firmer than expected (Reuters)\n\nFrench inflation slows further in July as food and energy prices fall (Bloomberg)\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nUS-listed sector ETFs by iShares, Global X and VanEck (Source: Market Index)\nASX TODAY\n\n\nASX 200 set to kick off FY25 on a weaker note and resuming last Friday's weakness (index finished up 0.1% from session high of 0.77%)\n\nJuly has historically (last decade) been the best performing month of the year, up an average 3.0% and positive 90% of the time\n\nRelatively uneventful overnight lead with downward pressure across a few sectors including Uranium (-2.1%), Lithium (-1.5%), Gold (-0.8%) and Biotech (-0.4%)\n\nCettire responds to ASX query (CTT)\n\nNine Entertainment staff express fury at the decision to announce 200 job cuts, including 70-90 in publishing – staff across The Age, SMH, AFR and WA Today pass a motion of no confidence in Nine Chief Executive Mike Sneesby and the Board (MEAA)\n\nBROKER MOVES\n\n\nAmcor initiated Equal Weight with US$9.80 target (Wells Fargo) \n\nInsurance Australia downgraded to Overweight from Buy; target up to $.735 from $6.80 (Jarden)\n\nLynas Rare Earths upgraded to Outperform from Underperform; but target cut to $6.55 from $6.85 (CLSA)\n\nReliance Worldwide downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $4.50 from $5.05 (BofA)\n\nSouthern Cross Electrical Engineering initiated Buy with $1.94 target (Moelis)\n\nStrike Energy downgraded to Underperform from Neutral; target remains $0.22 (Macquarie)\n\n\n\nKEY EVENTS\nCompanies trading ex-dividend: \n\n\nMon 1 July: Approximately 210 ETFs are trading ex-dividend. See a full list here\n\n\nTue 2 July: Ricegrowers (SGLLV) – $0.45, Ram Essential Services Property Fund (REP) – $0.014\n\nWed 3 July: Graincorp (GNC) – $0.24\n\nThu 4 July: Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.014\n\nFri 5 July: None\n\nOther ASX corporate actions today: \n\n\nDividends paid: ANZ Group (ANZ) – $0.83, CSR (CSR) – $0.12 \n\nListing: None\n\nEarnings: None\n\nAGMs: None\n\nEconomic calendar (AEST):\n\n\n11:45 am: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)\n\n3:00 pm: Japan Consumer Confidence (Jun)\n\n10:00 pm: Germany Inflation (Jun)\n\n12:00 am: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)\n\nThis Morning Wrap was written by Kerry Sun. \n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2448981922"}