Goldman Sachs’ Pasquariello: This is how market breadth is expected to broaden

seekingalpha07-05

The earnings growth premium earned by the biggest stocks within the S&P 500 (SP500) is expected to narrow through 2026, said Tony Pasquariello, global head of hedge fund coverage and global markets ...

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In 2023, the annual earnings growth by the five biggest stocks -- , , , , and  -- was 57%, and the S&P 500  median was 4%. The estimated annual earnings growth for this year for the big five stocks is 37%, while the S&P 500  median is 6%. For 2025, the estimate is 19% for the big stocks and 11% for the median S&P. And for 2026, it is estimated that the big five stocks will yield an annual earnings growth of 13% while the S&P 500  median will be 9%. As of the end of the first half of the year, the S&P 500 returned 15%. “If you take out Nvidia , that drops to 10%; if you strip out the entire Magnificent Seven, that drops to 6%,” said Pasquariello. “Viewed one way, that’s a very top heavy market. 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In 2023, the annual earnings growth by the five biggest stocks -- (MSFT), (NVDA), (AMZN), (GOOGL), and (META) -- was 57%, and the S&P 500 (SP500) median was 4%. The estimated annual earnings growth for this year for the big five stocks is 37%, while the S&P 500 (SP500) median is 6%. For 2025, the estimate is 19% for the big stocks and 11% for the median S&P. And for 2026, it is estimated that the big five stocks will yield an annual earnings growth of 13% while the S&P 500 (SP500) median will be 9%. As of the end of the first half of the year, the S&P 500 returned 15%. “If you take out Nvidia (NVDA), that drops to 10%; if you strip out the entire Magnificent Seven, that drops to 6%,” said Pasquariello. “Viewed one way, that’s a very top heavy market. Viewed another way, 6% in six months is a perfectly acceptable return (in fact, it annualizes to the average long-term return of S&P).”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.28.3","shortVersion":"4.28.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2449421579"}