Has Risk-On Run Out Of Road?

seekingalpha07-09

The aggressive portfolio continues to outperform its conservative counterpart by a wide margin, suggesting that animal spirits continue to favor a risk-on position.The US stock market’s risk appetite ...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2450876040?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/913219882/image_913219882.jpg","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2024-07-09 03:10","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","id":"2450876040","market":"sg","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Has Risk-On Run Out Of Road?","media":"seekingalpha","content":"<div>\n<p>The aggressive portfolio continues to outperform its conservative counterpart by a wide margin, suggesting that animal spirits continue to favor a risk-on position.The US stock market’s risk appetite ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4703007-has-risk-on-run-out-of-road\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Has Risk-On Run Out Of Road?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHas Risk-On Run Out Of Road?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-09 03:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4703007-has-risk-on-run-out-of-road><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The aggressive portfolio continues to outperform its conservative counterpart by a wide margin, suggesting that animal spirits continue to favor a risk-on position.The US stock market’s risk appetite ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4703007-has-risk-on-run-out-of-road\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"USMV","symbol_name":"美国最小波动率ETF-iShares","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4703007-has-risk-on-run-out-of-road","article_id":"2450876040","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/913219882/image_913219882.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2450876040","pubTimestamp":1720465800,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The aggressive portfolio continues to outperform its conservative counterpart by a wide margin, suggesting that animal spirits continue to favor a risk-on position.The US stock market’s risk appetite ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"USMV":"美国最小波动率ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","XHB":"房屋建筑商指数ETF-SPDR","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SMH":"半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","AOA":"iShares Aggressive Allocation Fu","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AOK":"iShares Conservative Allocation","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"translate_title":"冒险已经用完了吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AOA":1,"XHB":1,"USMV":1,"SPY":1,"SMH":1,"BND":1,"AOK":1,"IEI":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"TLT":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SHY":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"IEF":0.6,"GOVT":0.6,"ZTmain":0.6,"ZFmain":0.6,"ZBmain":0.6,"UBmain":0.6,"TNmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"The aggressive portfolio continues to outperform its conservative counterpart by a wide margin, suggesting that animal spirits continue to favor a risk-on position.The US stock market’s risk appetite continues to skew bullish, based on the ratio of the broad market vs. low-volatility shares.The ratio of medium-term US Treasuries vs. shorter-term counterparts  appears to be forming a base after an extended slide.   monsitj More investors are asking the question lately, in part because markets are seemingly defying gravity and ignoring various macro and geopolitical risks. Yet, a broad reading on market trends has yet to signal trouble ahead, based on a review of ETF pairs. That doesn’t ensure the bull run will continue, but at this point, the idea of calling a top and going defensive is based primarily on contrarian-based forecasting. Trend analysis, by comparison, still reflects optimism, rational or otherwise. Pick your poison. This upbeat trend view is more or less unchanged from our previous analysis of relative price behavior using various sets of ETFs. In late-May we noted that “Market Trends Continue To Lean Into A Bullish Signal.” A similar profile prevails, based on data through Friday’s close (July 5). Let’s start with a big-picture profile for a pair of global asset allocation funds. The aggressive portfolio (AOA) continues to outperform its conservative counterpart (AOK) by a wide margin, suggesting that animal spirits continue to favor a risk-on position.     The US stock market’s risk appetite also continues to skew bullish, based on the ratio of the broad market (SPY) vs. low-volatility shares (USMV).    A key market proxy for the business cycle is also sending positive trend signals, based on the semiconductor industry (SMH) relative to a broad measure of stocks (SPY).    Contrarians, however, will highlight the sharp downturn in housing stocks (XHB) vs. US shares overall (SPY). As noted in late-May, the downshift in housing equities in relative terms could be an early warning for the risk appetite. The ongoing slide in XHB extends and deepens the warning.    On a related note, the ratio of medium-term US Treasuries (IEF) vs. shorter-term counterparts (SHY) appears to be forming a base after an extended slide. That may be a sign that the appetite for risk-off is starting to rebound. If and when this ratio begins trending higher, the case for regime change to a defense posture will strengthen.    Similarly, when the rally in US stocks (SPY) vs. US bonds (BND) starts to roll over, the change may signal a regime change for the risk appetite. At the moment, animal spirits show few signs of fading. The bull run will end eventually, but current data still suggests we’re not yet at the tipping point. In the wake of a powerful rally, however, it’s timely to look for early warning signs that trend is cracking.    Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2450876040"}