Why 'unloved' small-cap stocks are in store for a strong second half - Carson's Detrick

seekingalpha07-19

The Russell 2000 (RTY)(IWM) took more of a breather Thursday, but its recent boom has pushed it up +8% YTD, and a number of drivers put small-cap stocks in line for a strong second half of 2024, ...

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The Russell 2000 (RTY) shot up +10% over a stunning five-day rally that ended Tuesday, followed by steps back on Wednesday and Thursday. A shift by investors into small-caps from mega-cap tech stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta (META) helped the Russell 2000 (RTY) moderately narrow its lag to the S&P 500’s (SP500)(SPY) +16% YTD gain, and the Nasdaq Composite’s (COMP:IND)(QQQ) 19% surge.  “We’ve liked small caps all year and we’ll be the first to admit they’ve been frustrating,” Detrick said in a note. However, “we think this underloved, underappreciated, and underowned area could be due for a big second half in ’24,” he said.  Among the factors:  Small caps are historically cheap Buying stocks that are cheap once other drivers are in place can help investors’ portfolios, he said. “The last time small caps were this cheap relative to large caps was in 1999, which kicked off a 13-year period of outperformance for small caps.” Here’s a chart from Carson Group:   “Explosive” earnings growth ahead  This year, earnings growth for the S&P Small Cap 600 Index (SP600) is expected at 4.1%. But for 2025 and 2026, analysts are looking at potential expansion of 17.7% and 12.5% for S&P small-caps.  “Given we remain positive on the U.S. economy, we think these overall earnings numbers could even come in better,” Detrick said.  Easing debt pain for small companies from rate cuts Slowing inflation has prompted traders to price in two Fed rate cuts for 2024, with a third a “coin toss,” Detrick said. S&P 500 (SP500) large-cap companies have locked in 90% of their debt at likely at very low rates from a few years ago, while small-caps have only about half of their overall debt in fixed-rate debt. “Lower rates (even slightly lower) could be a big tailwind for small caps,” he said. Here's another chart:","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"Business Data","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.3","shortVersion":"4.26.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2452504664"}