Picking A Winner In High-Yield REITs

seekingalpha07-19

REIT yields are high due to sell-offs in 2022 and 2023, but REIT prices may rise if the Fed cuts rates in September as expected.Dividend safety is crucial when investing in high-yielding REITs, to ...

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We will start by listing all the REITs with yields of at least 5.50%, and winnow them down by dividend safety, market cap, balance sheet soundness, and FFO growth forecast. Then we will take price into consideration. So let's get started. Please note: by the time this article is published, yields will have shifted somewhat. The candidates Here are all the REITs yielding 5.50% or better as of the July 16 close, showing their sector, and their Dividend Safety score as assigned by Seeking Alpha Premium. There are no fewer than 52 candidates to choose from.   Company Ticker Sector Yield Safety   Clipper Realty  Apartment 9.55% F   NexPoint Diversified  Single Family 9.23% NR   Global Self Storage  Storage 5.89% NR   Apple Hospitality  Hotel 6.37% A-   Park Hotels  Hotel 6.62% D+   Services Properties  Hotel 13.65% D+   Braemar Hotels  Hotel","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"OHI":"Omega Healthcare Investors","DEA":"Easterly Government Properties Inc","NXDT":"NexPoint Credit Strategies Fun","HIW":"海伍兹物业","CLPR":"Clipper Realty Inc.","VICI":"Vici Properties","UNIT":"Uniti Group Inc","ONL":"Orion Office Reit Inc","O":"Realty Income Corp","UHT":"Universal Health Realty Income T","REFI":"Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.","HR":"医疗保健房地产信托","GMRE":"Global Medical REIT Inc.","OLP":"One Liberty Properties Inc","IIPR":"Innovative Industrial Properties Inc","CIO":"City Office REIT Inc","GNL":"Global Net Lease Inc","PSTL":"Postal Realty Trust, Inc.","MPW":"Medical Properties Trust","CFA":"VictoryShares US 500 Volatility Wtd ETF","KRC":"吉劳埃地产","NLCP":"NewLake Capital Partners, Inc.","BDN":"布兰迪维因房地产信托","SVC":"Service Properties Trust","MDV":"Modiv Inc.","LTC":"LTC房产","PK":"Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.","CMCT":"Creative Media & Community Trust","BFS":"Saul Centers Inc","PINE":"Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.","DOC":"Healthpeak Properties, Inc","BXP":"BXP Inc","PKST":"PEAKSTONE REALTY TRUST","WPC":"W. P. 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PM Images Due to the sell-off of 2022 and 2023, REIT yields are higher than usual right now, despite the rally off the October 2023 low. If the fed cuts rates in September as anticipated, REIT prices will probably rise. In fact, they have been trending generally upward for the past 3 months.   VNQ price movement (Seeking Alpha Premium) So this may be a good time to go shopping for a higher yield than you might ordinarily trust. The problem, of course, is that some high-yielding REITs are actually mousetraps, which lure you in, only to cut the dividend, which is usually followed by a swift and steep sell-off in the underlying share price, leaving the investor with the worst of both worlds. So dividend safety is paramount. However, there are other REITs which will not give you much gain on the share price, though the dividend is safe enough. The \"no-risk\" rate on treasuries right now is hovering in the 4.10 - 4.50% range. There is really no point investing in a REIT just for the dividends, unless the yield is markedly higher. Why invest in a risk asset when you can get just as good a yield at little or no risk? This article will survey all equity REITs, to identify the single high-yield REIT that is the best bet for your hard-earned investment money right now. We will start by listing all the REITs with yields of at least 5.50%, and winnow them down by dividend safety, market cap, balance sheet soundness, and FFO growth forecast. Then we will take price into consideration. So let's get started. Please note: by the time this article is published, yields will have shifted somewhat. The candidates Here are all the REITs yielding 5.50% or better as of the July 16 close, showing their sector, and their Dividend Safety score as assigned by Seeking Alpha Premium. There are no fewer than 52 candidates to choose from.   Company Ticker Sector Yield Safety   Clipper Realty (CLPR) Apartment 9.55% F   NexPoint Diversified (NXDT) Single Family 9.23% NR   Global Self Storage (SELF) Storage 5.89% NR   Apple Hospitality (APLE) Hotel 6.37% A-   Park Hotels (PK) Hotel 6.62% D+   Services Properties (SVC) Hotel 13.65% D+   Braemar Hotels (BHR) Hotel 5.36% C+   American Healthcare (AHR) Medical 5.99% NR   Healthpeak (DOC) Medical 5.74% C-   Healthcare Realty (HR) Medical 6.89% F   Community Healthcare (CHCT) Medical 7.06% D   Global Medical (GMRE) Medical 8.66% F   Universal Health (UHT) Medical 7.02% NR   Omega Healthcare (OHI) Medical 7.55% D-   Sabra (SBRA) Medical 7.23% D-   LTC Properties (LTC) Medical 6.27% D+   Medical Properties (MPW) Medical 12.53% D   Saul Centers (BFS) Strip Center 6.09% D   CTO Realty (CTO) Strip Center 8.20% D   CBL Properties (CBL) Regional Mall 6.28% D   Realty Income (O) Net Lease 5.60% C   W. P. Carey (WPC) Net Lease 6.00% B   EPR Properties (EPR) Net Lease 7.76% C+   Broadstone Net Lease (BNL) Net Lease 6.72% C+   Global Net Lease (GNL) Net Lease 13.13% F   Getty Realty (GTY) Net Lease 6.17% D+   Gladstone Commercial (GOOD) Net Lease 8.08% D-   One Liberty Park (OLP) Net Lease 7.06% D-   Peakstone (PKST) Net Lease 6.17% A-   Postal Realty (PSTL) Net Lease 6.71% F   Alpine Income (PINE) Net Lease 6.69% C-   Modiv (MDV) Net Lease 7.82% D   Boston Properties (BXP) Office 5.65% C   Kilroy Realty (KRC) Office 6.01% A   Highwoods Properties (HIW) Office 6.88% C   Easterly Government (DEA) Office 7.69% F   Alexander's Inc. (ALX) Office 7.83% D   Armada Hoffler  (AHH) Office 6.97% D-   Piedmont Realty (PDM) Office 6.00% A   Brandywine Realty (BDN) Office 12.71% C-   City Office (CIO) Office 6.99% A   Orion Office (ONL) Office 9.59% A   Creative Media (CMCT) Office 14.78% D-   Crown Castle (CCI) Cell Tower 6.04% D-   Uniti Group (UNIT) Cell Tower 15.58% F   VICI Properties (VICI) Casino 5.50% B   Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) Casino 6.19% C-   Outfront Media (OUT) Billboard 7.54% D-   Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) Cannabis 6.24% A-   NewLake Capital (OTCQX:NLCP) Cannabis 9.30% A+   AFC Gamma (AFCG) Cannabis 21.29% NR   Chicago Atlantic (REFI) Cannabis 11.80% NR   Click to enlarge Source: Hoya Capital Income Builder, Seeking Alpha Premium At this point, we have a decision to make: How safe is safe enough? Every investor will set that cut-off differently. For the purposes of this article, I will winnow the list down to only those with Dividend Safety Grades of C or better. This eliminates one or two intriguing prospects, such as Alpine Income and Healthpeak, but results in a list of 16 companies shown below, rank ordered by Dividend Safety, then by yield. Round 2: Market Cap   Ticker Sector Dividend Safety Dividend Yield Mkt. Cap   NLCP Cannabis A+ 9.25% $0.40 B   ONL Office A 9.59% $0.22 B   CIO Office A 6.99% $0.21 B   KRC Office A 5.98% $4.24 B   PDM Office A 5.97% $1.01 B   APLE Hotel A- 6.37% $3.57 B   IIPR Cannabis A- 6.24% $3.36 B   PKST Medical A- 6.17% $0.51 B   WPC Net Lease B 6.00% $12.74 B   VICI Casino B 5.48% $31.60 B   EPR Net Lease C+ 7.76% $3.28 B   BNL Net Lease C+ 6.72% $3.35 B   BHR Hotel C+ 5.36% $0.26 B   HIW Office C 6.88% $3.08 B   BXP Office C 5.65% $12.1 B   O Net Lease C 5.60% $48.85 B   Click to enlarge Source: Seeking Alpha Premium Market cap matters for two reasons:  If we are investing primarily for Yield, we want all the safety we can get. We want to basically make money while we sleep. Small caps (market cap less than $1.4 B) are more volatile, more vulnerable, and therefore more risky. Definitive research by Hoya Capital has established that market cap is a significant factor in total return, with small caps faring worst, on average.  Based on this, I am going to eliminate all the small cap REITs from contention. This doesn't mean you should. If there are companies I bump off this list, at any stage of the analysis, that you find intriguing, by all means continue researching them. This winnows our list down to 10 strong candidates. I have also flagged VICI Properties (VICI) and Realty Income (O) as second-tier prospects because their market caps are far removed from the sweet spot, and their yields are borderline. Round 3: Balance Sheet Balance sheet matters a lot, especially when there are unexpected reversals in the macro environment, such as the sub-prime mortgage meltdown of 2008 and the pandemic of 2020. Companies with high debt ratios tend to get hammered. In case there is another unexpected reversal in the next 12 months, let's rank our 10 contenders by balance sheet strength, and see where that takes us.   Ticker Safety Yield Debt Ratio Debt/EBITDA % Var.   KRC A 5.98 53% 6.5 5.0%   APLE A- 6.37 28% 3.7 18.4%   IIPR A- 6.24 10% 0.6 0.0%   WPC B 6.00 38% 5.5 4.8%   EPR C+ 7.76 44% 6.4 0.0%   BNL C+ 6.72 36% 5.4 1.8%   HIW C 6.88 56% 6.3 6.5%   BXP C 5.65 58% 6.0 14.7%   VICI B 5.48 34% 5.7 0.0%   O C 5.60 34% 6.9 1.2%   Click to enlarge Source: Seeking Alpha Premium and Hoya Capital Income Builder Clearly, the strongest balance sheet belongs to IIPR, with APLE in second place. Although APLE gets a red flag for having 18.4% of its debt held at variable rates, this is strongly ameliorated by two factors:  The company's low Debt/EBITDA indicates they are well able to pay down the debt using earnings, and Interest rates probably will not continue rising, and there is a strong chance they will fall in the near future. Thus, APLE's variable rate obligations will not likely increase the weighted average interest rate APLE pays.  Round 4: FFO Growth Forecast One of the stronger factors influencing a REIT's share price is investors' expectations for revenue growth, with FFO (funds from operations) being the chief revenue measure. All other things equal, growing revenues tend to lead to stable or rising share price and dividend, whereas falling revenues tend to jeopardize both. Here is the re-ranked list, with the FFO projections for 2024 and 2025.   Ticker Safety Yield FFO '23 FFO '24 Growth1 FFO '25 Growth2   IIPR A- 6.24 $7.64 $8.19 7.2% $8.48 3.5%   APLE A- 6.37 $1.53 $1.63 6.5% $1.67 2.5%   BNL C+ 6.72 $1.48 $1.48 0.0% $1.53 3.5%   VICI B 5.48 $2.48* $2.60 4.8% $2.71 4.2%   WPC B 6.00 $5.52 $4.75 (-14.0)% $4.85 2.1%   O C 5.60 $4.04 $4.23 4.7% $4.29 1.4%   EPR C+ 7.76 $4.69 $4.84 3.2% $5.01 3.5%   KRC A 5.98 $4.68 $4.24 (-9.4)% $4.24 0.0%   HIW C 6.88 $3.83 $3.56 (-7.0)% $3.54 (-0.6)%   BXP C 5.65 $7.53 $7.05 (-6.4)% $7.21 2.3%   Click to enlarge Source: Seeking Alpha Premium, Hoya Capital Income Builder Based on this data, we can safely eliminate WPC, KRC, HIW, and BXP from the running. IIPR and APLE, our two strongest balance sheets, also have the strongest forward FFO growth expectations, followed by VICI, O, EPR, and BNL. It will be difficult to dislodge IIPR and APLE from the top 2 spots. The relatively poor showing by BNL in this round will move it down two slots in the rankings for the next round. Round 5: Dividend Score A company's ability to pay dividends to investors is not fully captured by Yield alone. The rate of dividend growth also factors in because it will likely change the Yield you receive a year or two down the road. Dividend Score projects the Yield 3 years from now, assuming the rate of dividend growth (defined as 3-year CAGR) does not change. Interestingly, our 6 remaining candidates have sorted themselves in order by Dividend Safety, based on the results of Round 4.   Ticker Safety Yield Div. Growth Div. Score Freq.   IIPR A- 6.24 10.7 8.47 Q   APLE A- 6.37 20.7 11.14 M   VICI B 5.48 10.8 7.46 Q   O C 5.60 2.2 5.97 M   BNL C+ 6.72 3.8 7.51 Q   EPR C+ 7.76 4.5 8.85 M   Click to enlarge Source: Seeking Alpha Premium and author calculations (Q = Quarterly. M= Monthly) Thanks to a surprising 20.7% growth rate, APLE ranks highest on Dividend Score, at 11.14. The runner-up at 8.85 is another monthly payer, EPR, followed by IIPR. The lowest is Realty Income, at a very respectable 5.97. Although this is a solid company, let's eliminate them as we go to the next round. IIPR with an A- at 8.47 looks better to me than EPR with a C+ at 8.85, but you may reasonably disagree, especially since EPR currently pays 152 basis points higher, and pays monthly. VICI with a B at 7.46 looks slightly better than BNL with a C+ at 7.51 over a 3-year period, but BNL's 124 basis point lead in current yield is hard to ignore. Round 6: Price Research by Hoya Capital has turned up something interesting about price. \"Cheap\" REITs, with Price/FFO well below average, tend to stay cheap. They produce the poorest total returns and also fare worst in unexpected downturns. In fact, there is an inverse correlation between price and total return. At the same time, a discount to NAV is always a good thing. However, NAV is such an inexact measure that I take those figures with a healthy dose of salt. Nevertheless, it is an important data point to consider, so let's re-rank based on Round 4 and look at pricing considerations. REITs in general are neither very expensive nor very inexpensive, compared to historical norms. We can safely regard multiples of 18.0 - 20.0 as average.   Ticker Safety Div. Score Price/FFO '24 Prem. to NAV Rank   APLE A- 11.14 9.3 (-20.7) 2   IIPR A- 8.47 14.9 (-6.4) 1   EPR C+ 8.85 9.1 (-18.4) 4   BNL C+ 7.51 11.7 (-13.7) 3   VICI B 7.46 11.6 (-2.4) 5   Click to enlarge Source: Seeking Alpha Premium and Hoya Capital Income Builder With the average REIT selling at 18.8x FFO '24, all 5 of our surviving candidates are cheap, which isn't good. However, while all 5 are selling at a discount to NAV, only VICI offers a less-than-average discount. This company, though strong, can be safely eliminated from the competition. I put more weight on Price/FFO than on premium to NAV, so I favor IIPR as the leader in this round, with APLE second over BNL because of the large difference in Safety and Dividend Score, and BNL slightly better than EPR, but not enough to make up the difference in Dividend Score. Round 7: Professional analysts' opinions As a final sanity check, let's look at Wall Street and Seeking Alpha Quant ratings on these four companies, just to make sure we are not missing something important.   Ticker Safety Div. Score Wall St. Quant   IIPR A- 8.47 Hold Hold   APLE A- 11.14 Buy Hold   BNL C+ 7.51 Hold Buy   EPR C+ 8.85 Hold Hold   Click to enlarge Source: Seeking Alpha Premium and author calculations All four candidates are solid, and there is no clear-cut winner. A case can be made for each of these companies, except BNL, as the best high-yield REIT. For example, if current yield is more important to you than growth over a 3-year period, and you are comfortable with C+ safety, EPR could easily be your favorite. May I have the envelope, please? However, to my way of thinking, the slight favorite of the group is . . . Apple Hospitality REIT, with the highest dividend score, a close second in balance sheet and growth forecast, the best discount to NAV, and a near bulletproof A- Dividend Safety score.   Apple Hospitality  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. 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