Evolution AB: The Odds Look Solid For This Beaten-Up Gaming Operator

seekingalpha07-23

Evolution AB is a Swedish B2B provider of live online casino games with a €22 billion market cap, trading on the Nasdaq in the US and in Europe.Despite trading at 17.8x forward earnings, the company's...

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MARHARYTA MARKO Summary Evolution AB (OTCPK:EVVTY) is a Swedish-based B2B provider of fully integrated live online casino games to licensed gaming operators. The company has a €22 billion market cap and is plenty liquid for US buyers (as EVVTY is Nasdaq listed) as well as for European investors (the ticker in Europe is EVO). At 17.8x forward earnings, EVVTY is not super cheap, but given the quality and growth, arguably is worth 25x earnings or higher. It is hard to find company’s growing topline by 15% and trading at a near 20% discount to the S&P 500. Indeed, Evolution AB operates a fantastic business model. The company not only has a huge moat but also:  Sports incredibly high EBITDA margins of around 70%, Is asset-light, with EBITDA of €1.3 billion last year and total capex of only €90 million, Has a dominant 80% market share of the live online casino game industry, the fastest-growing vertical among online games, Posted 24% revenue growth in 2023 and 27% EPS growth. Earnings per share have grown by 60% per year over the past 5 years, Has a net cash balance sheet, and Continues to have two of its founders on the board who own a combined 10.5% of the equity.  Lower-quality names that are Evolution’s customers include DraftKings (DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment (FLUT). They trade at 30x and 15x EBITDA respectively and at extremely high earnings multiples (40x and 30x respectively). DKNG has generated negative earnings historically and appears to be growing revenue slightly faster than FLUT or EVVTY. But EBITDA margins at FLUT and DKNG are in the 10-20% ballpark, not 70%. When a stock’s valuation seems too good to be true, then there must be a catch. And well, as a “sin” stock, Evolution is bound to be at some discount to “cleaner” companies. But the larger concern is that Evolution games are being played in unregulated and illegal markets. EVVTY was the subject of a short report two and a half years ago (which we discuss in more detail below). It helped kill the stock over the next few quarters. At the time, Evolution was trading at almost 40x EBITDA. Today it is at 14x. Anyway, per the report: “Evolution consistently offers its games on multiple online gaming websites (operators) that enable prohibited gambling in jurisdictions where gambling is prohibited and considered as a criminal offense.” Here is a good example of how bet365 offers online casino games in China out of its Gibraltar base of operations. Not only does bet365 use “mirror” websites to change its digital location so that Chinese users can play games online, but also users can simply use a VPN to circumvent blocked online casinos. VPNs hide the origin of a user’s activity. With 60% of Evolution’s revenue from “unregulated” markets, bears would argue that some of this revenue will be shut down. However, we sense that most online gaming trends point to increasing levels of deregulation globally. Unregulated revenue is a risk, no doubt, but it is also an opportunity should more countries and jurisdictions continue to legalize online gambling. This report offers a detailed view of the legality of online gambling in various jurisdictions, as well as expected trends. Here is a stock chart over the past five years.   TIKR.com In our bear case, applying valuation parameters as suggested by the short report from 2021, we get downside to roughly $75 per share. But the reality is probably an $85-90 downside case here, barring a macro shock to the company or a complete breakdown in revenue growth. In our bullish case, additional deregulation, execution on growth, and/or growing investor comfort with online operations in unregulated markets, and we think 22-27x is a fair P/E valuation. That implies upside to $150-200 in 2-3 years with dividends. In a “status quo” environment and our most likely scenario, at a market multiple, 21.5x 2026 earnings, we get a stock at $161 in 2-3 years. That is almost 70% upside or 19% IRRs. At $80-85, should margin degradation continue to worry investors but with revenue growth intact, the risk-reward would arguably be at “pound the table” levels. Capitalization   Author spreadsheet, company financials Note that Evolution comes with a nice 3.05% dividend yield. Business Evolution AB was founded in 2006 by three Swedes, Jens von Bahr, Fredrik Osterberg, and Richard Hadida. They fashioned their live online casinos on those in Monte Carlo. Their first studio in Latvia, built in 2006, used to run the BBC network in the background to prove that their online casino games were truly live. Jens acted as CEO until 2016 when he stepped aside to become chairman of the board. The company IPO’d in March 2015 at 80 SEK (stock is up 16x from its IPO price in 8 years). Today, Fredrik is a board member, and he and Jens together hold 10.5% of the shares outstanding.   EVVTY IR The company’s focus is on creating live-streamed casino games online. They have 17 studios across the globe and sell their products to a variety of online casino operators. In 2022, Evolution launched 88 new live games and in 2023, they launched 110 games. Here is a YouTube video illustrating what an Evolution Live Craps table looks like online. Evolution is both a media and a software business in the sense that they operate 1300 live tables globally with film studios streaming content 24/7/365 for their online casino customers. The company operates 11 studios in Europe, 5 in the US, 2 in Canada and 2 in South America. Their live streams are bundled with software in their so-called OSS (One Stop Shop) platform and sold to online gaming operators like MGM, bet365, DraftKings, or FanDuel (owned by Flutter Entertainment). These are probably their largest customers, but exact customer details are not disclosed. The company generates 85% of its revenue from its Live games and probably 95% of its profits. Both RNG (random number generator games like slots) and Live games earn revenue for Evolution as a percentage of their operators’ winnings. There are some set-up fees, but by and large, the business model is highly recurring and dependent on the operators' profits. Margins are extremely high as few of their 600 customers can film and run live online games. Evolution’s Live business runs the gamut of services, from basic tables to more complex deals. Larger online casinos could have dedicated tables as well as a variety of add-ons like native-speaking dealers or other customizations. At 15% of revenue today, the company’s RNG category (random number generator) is quite unimpressive. These are mostly online slot machines and Evolution got into this business via the acquisition of NetEnt AB for just under €2.0 billion (with stock today that is worth almost €4 billion). They paid 23x EBITDA by issuing equity (~33 million shares). The deal closed in December 2020. We did not care for the Nolimit City acquisition either, which closed in August 2022. Nolimit also fits into the online slot games (RNG) segment and at 14.6x EBITDA, seemed a more reasonable multiple. But the RNG category has continually disappointed, with one analyst calling Evolution’s performance in this vertical “embarrassing.” Management hopes to get to double-digit organic topline growth in RNG, but in 2023, revenue from their RNG segment in Q4 was down 4% YoY. Lately results have improved but not by a lot.   EVVTY IR Live, on the other hand, grew revenue by 28% last year. RNG is the largest vertical among online gamers, but Live is the growthiest one. Among their Live segment, the most popular tables are Roulette, Blackjack, and Baccarat. In Q2, Live grew revenue 18%. Total Addressable Market In 2022, 77% of gambling was done in land-based facilities, with 23% of gaming done online. This includes state-run lotteries, so perhaps not exactly a TAM. The casino market breaks down as follows.   EVVTY IR From 2017 to 2022, land-based casinos’ revenue declined by 4.7% per year, online Live casinos grew by 21.5%, and RNG casinos grew by 19.5% (according to H2 Gambling Capital). Of course, the pandemic created all sorts of noise and pull-forward demand in the industry. And in 2023, land-based casino gambling wins grew 13.3% while online wins only grew 12.8%. 2023 was the first year that essentially all land-based casinos had fully re-opened. For 2024, H2 Gambling expects growth of 7% in overall gambling with an online market share of 24.6%. That increase from 23% the year before was a bit of a surprise given that many consumers are now traveling and spending less time online than during the pandemic. Below is H2 Gambling’s forecasted growth of casino dollar winnings. This includes online and land-based casinos.   H2 Gambling Capital Inflation has had a clear positive impact on growth, but of late now a bit of a hindrance. Custom Market Insights is a bit more bullish on the online casino industry, forecasting 12.5% annual growth from 2024 to 2032.   Custom Market Insights Note that Custom Market Insights above forecasts higher growth in slot machines (the RNG category). In the middle is Playtoday which forecasts 9.1% annual online gambling revenue growth from 2023 to 2027. Interestingly, 96% of gamblers prefer to gamble at home. Other positive factors for the online casino industry:  Increasing internet penetration and faster speeds will likely continue globally. Online casinos are extremely convenient/accessible. Play some games during your lunch hour or while sitting around at home? Sure, now you can. Online game variety is driving growth. Online casinos have better odds for gamblers.  That last point is pretty important too. Anyone who likes better odds of success would probably want to focus more dollars online given its better odds. Regulated Customers Vs Unregulated Customers When I first looked at Evolution, I thought, this is insanely attractive. How many companies that generate 70% EBITDA margins and require very little capex, growing by 15%+ topline, can be purchased at a material discount to the S&P 500? As mentioned, this is considered a sin stock, and like a wide variety of tobacco names and oil and gas names, it just won’t fit into a lot of institutional funds or accounts. Sin stocks always trade a little on the cheaper side. Internationals stocks also of late have been discarded for growthier US AI plays. But a bigger concern has to do with Evolution customers and whether they operate in regulated markets or not. Here is a geographic breakdown of Q4 revenue by region.   Author spreadsheet, company financials Europe is the largest segment at 39% of revenue, followed closely by Asia at 38%. North America is 12% with LatAm/Other at 10%. Europe is heavily regulated, as is the US. Asia, which is not so regulated, grew superfast at 33% in the fourth quarter. Below is an annual breakdown of their largest customers.   EVVTY 10K Evolution discloses that 40% of revenue in 2023 was derived from regulated markets. These are ones with national or regional rules allowing for licenses for the lawful operation of a casino. Regulated markets where Evolution operates include:   EVVTY IR First of all, there are not many states open for online gambling in the US. But the trend is increasingly towards deregulation. My home state of North Carolina just legalized sports gambling in March this year. Second, I don’t see any Asian countries on this list, which is 40% of Evolution’s sales. That explains the bulk of their “unregulated” revenue exposure. On the plus side, “gambling is embedded in Asian cultures” and “even kids learn to gamble there” with adults. That said, gambling is technically illegal in Mainland China and forbidden among Muslim countries across the board. There are a lot of Muslims on the planet who probably never will gamble. In China, Macao and Hong Kong are two territories where gambling is legal. Macao pre-pandemic was 3x as large as Vegas in terms of gambling revenue, but now it is closer to 2x. Still, huge. Some 340 land-based casinos in Southeast Asia mostly cater to Chinese citizens. The rub here is that while not legal, there are many ways to gamble from Mainland China online. Companies like Guangdong Club are registered in Costa Rica but tailored to Chinese citizens. Inside China. Right now, Chinese authorities seem to not be focused much here, but that could change. As mentioned, a short report hit Evolution stock in January 2022, claiming that the company’s unregulated revenue should be valued differently than its regulated revenue. Fair enough. At the time, however, EVVTY was trading at almost 40x EBITDA. The yellow circle below marks when the short report was published. The valuation has come down significantly and more likely EVVTY (chart of EVO below) went from a hot bubble stock in 2021 to now a fairly valued one.   Bloomberg From a valuation point of view, the report claimed that Relax Gaming, NetEnt and BTG were trading at 11-14x revenue when they were taken out and that EVO at 25x revenue was egregiously valued. Again, ok. Today, EVO/EVVTY trades at 10.3x revenue. It could in fact now be a takeout candidate. Using 11-14x revenue gets us $117 to $148 on the stock. The short seller targeted SEK 620 as a “fair value” which works out to SEK 800 today or $75 in USD on the stock. Given that none of their warnings have come true and short sellers’ tendencies to exaggerate, we think $85 is probably a more realistic downside. For good measure, Evolution’s Head of IR said: “Everyone who understands the eco-system of the online casino industry knows that the identity of an individual player remains with the operator and that our product is not stand-alone as it requires an operator to add features such as payment methods and identity verification applications before it can be available to players. “Evolution has customer relationships with gaming operators, who in turn own the relationships with the end users. Evolution does not own or control any of the aggregators or operators it works with. We have no direct relationship with the underlying player and no involvement in handling of players’ money.\" “We only sell content to operators and aggregators with a valid license in jurisdictions where online gaming is legal.” The aftermath of the short report led to the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement starting an investigation into Evolution back in 2021. Good news: that case was dropped in February 2024, with no further action taken. Second Quarter Earnings Evolution reported results last Friday and they were a miss. The stock is down well over 10% in the past couple of trading days. Some did not like the company’s announced acquisition of Galaxy Gaming, but it’s a small deal, a $124 million total enterprise value acquisition to pick up $12-13 million in EBITDA. The deal appears a play to grab a number of licenses in the United States (a market the company remains quite small in). Speaking of revenue, here is revenue by region as reported last week.   EVVTY IR Overall, revenue grew 15.2% in Q2, but expectations were revenue growth of 18.1%. This appears to be mostly a currency issue and, ex-currency, revenue was up 19% year over year (YoY). We viewed the growth as fine. EBITDA grew 11% to €346 million from €312 million a year ago. Again, expectations were higher, as the Street expected €360 million of EBITDA in Q2 (a 4% miss). EBITDA margins dropped from 70.7% to 68.0% in the second quarter.   EVVTY IR Overall, EPS grew only 3.3% to €1.28 per share. The company’s effective tax rate jumped from 6.7% to 15.3% year over year. Pre-tax profits grew nicely, however, up 12.3%. While many are reducing expectations, the margin impacts don’t worry me too much. The company is entering new markets in the Philippines, Brazil and the Czech Republic. Plus, apparently the odds did not work in Evolutions favor, literally, as payouts on their Crazy Time game were higher than expected in Q2. That also negatively impacted revenue and margins. With 20 studios around the globe and after some aggressive expansion in the past six months, there should be some recovery in EBITDA margins going forward. EBITDA margin guidance for 2024 remains 69% to 71% despite a quarter at 68%. Given the stock’s performance, management announced a €400 million share repurchase plan. That is 2% of the float and should offer some support for the equity. Below is our model assuming below guidance EBITDA margins and slightly lower revenue growth in 2024 and 2025. Note that we assume a 20% corporate tax rate as that is expected to increase in the coming couple of years.   Author spreadsheet, company financials At 70% EBITDA margins in 2025 and 17% revenue growth, EVVTY should be able to earn €5.69 per share (or $6.09 in USD). That is below Street figures of $6.56 a share, but if margins improve a bit, EBITDA growth looks solid in 2025 at 19%. Peers and Valuation Among producers of Live video online applications, Evolution dominates with roughly 75% market share and only has 2 competitors: Playtech has ~15% market share and Pragmatic Play has 10%. Playtech plc (PTEC LN) trades at 9x earnings in London but only grew revenue 6.5% last year. They continue to lose market share. Their EBITDA margins are 25% which is far lower than Evolution’s. Pragmatic Play is privately held. FLUT is a large customer of Evolutions (we think, not disclosed though) and trades at 30x earnings. Over time, as long as margins hold up and growth remains steady, this should be a solid Compounder. Below are several scenarios.   Author spreadsheet, company financials We continue to see downside to $85 give or take, with upside to $120-150 in just a couple of years. Conclusion Evolution AB checks a lot of quality boxes. High margin, high insider ownership, founder involvement, huge ROEs at 29% last year, and solid double-digit growth potential. In our view, the unregulated market revenue is old news. Shorts even prompted some regulatory reviews, with nothing impacting the business to date. Looking long term, online gambling is likely here to stay. With better online odds, and improving accessibility and acceptance, Evolution AB should grow at a healthy pace for years to come. As for recent results, the growth story does not seem broken to us. While EVVTY could be in the penalty box for a quarter or two, Evolution is best at what they do and operates an incredibly high margin, recurring revenue, growth business. There is almost no capex required here, except to build production studios and some technology. We think a market multiple seems fair for EVVTY which implies $120-160 in 1-3 years. Risks outside consumer spending trends include regulatory actions in unregulated markets, customer concentration, margin degradation, and currency changes.  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. 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