Soft Landing Secured

seekingalpha07-28

U.S. equity markets posted mixed performance while interest rates dipped to four-month lows as a lukewarm start to corporate earnings season and mixed economic data reinforced Fed rate cut ...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoft Landing Secured\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-28 21:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4707506-soft-landing-secured><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>U.S. equity markets posted mixed performance while interest rates dipped to four-month lows as a lukewarm start to corporate earnings season and mixed economic data reinforced Fed rate cut ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4707506-soft-landing-secured\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"ELS","symbol_name":"宜居生活资产信托","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4707506-soft-landing-secured","article_id":"2454114528","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1498888707/image_1498888707.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2454114528","pubTimestamp":1722171600,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"U.S. equity markets posted mixed performance while interest rates dipped to four-month lows as a lukewarm start to corporate earnings season and mixed economic data reinforced Fed rate cut expectation","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"ELS":"宜居生活资产信托","CUZ":"卡津斯不动产信托基金","BK4228":"单户式住宅房地产信托","MORT":"VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF","ROIC":"Retail Opportunity Investments C","LINE":"Lineage","BK4160":"多样化房地产投资信托v","CFA":"VictoryShares US 500 Volatility Wtd ETF","EGP":"EastGroup Properties Inc","DLR":"数字房地产信托公司","BALY":"Bally Corp","COLD":"Americold Realty Trust","BDN":"布兰迪维因房地产信托","NLY":"Annaly Capital Management","BK4231":"零售房地产信托","GLPI":"Gaming and Leisure Properties I","BXMT":"黑石抵押信托","INVH":"Invitation Homes Inc.","DX":"德尼克斯投资","ADC":"艾格里房产","EPRT":"Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc.","LADR":"Ladder Capital Corp","HIW":"海伍兹物业","ALEX":"亚历山大与鲍德温公司","CTO":"CTO Realty Growth, Inc.","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","AHR":"American Healthcare REIT","SILA":"Sila Realty Trust Inc.","CFA.SI":"NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT","PMT":"PennyMac Mortgage Investment Tru","KREF":"KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.","PECO":"Phillips Edison & Company, Inc.","AGNC":"美国资本代理公司","BK4215":"住宅房地产投资信托","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4223":"办公室房地产信托","GTY":"Getty Realty Corp"},"translate_title":"软着陆安全","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"KREF":1,"DLR":1,"DX":1,"EGP":1,"ELS":1,"EPRT":1,"GLPI":1,"GTY":1,"HIW":1,"INVH":1,"AGNC":1,"LADR":1,"LINE":1,"MORT":1,"NLY":1,"PECO":1,"PMT":1,"ROIC":1,"SILA":1,"CTO":1,"ADC":1,"AHR":1,"ALEX":1,"BALY":1,"BDN":1,"CUZ":1,"COLD":1,"BXMT":1,"CFA":0.9,"US3Y.BOND":0.9,"US30Y.BOND":0.9,"US2Y.BOND":0.9,"US12M.BOND":0.9,"US10Y.BOND":0.9,"CFA.SI":0.9,"US5Y.BOND":0.9,"US6M.BOND":0.9,"US7Y.BOND":0.9,"US912797HE00.BOND":0.6,"US912797GK78.BOND":0.6,"US912797GL51.BOND":0.6,"US912797GW17.BOND":0.6},"content_text":"U.S. equity markets posted mixed performance while interest rates dipped to four-month lows as a lukewarm start to corporate earnings season and mixed economic data reinforced Fed rate cut expectations.Another twist in a wild month of politics, President Biden announced that he would not seek reelection, instead endorsing VP Harris, setting the stage for a more competitive November election.The S&P 500 slipped 0.8% on the week as the powerful \"value rotation\" trade extended into a third-week. The Small-Cap 600 rallied 3.6% while the mega-cap Nasdaq 100 dipped 2.6%.Real estate equities - which were even more significant underperformers during the Fed's rate hiking cycle - were among the leaders for a third-straight week following a strong start to earnings season.Of the 27 equity REITs that have provided full-year guidance, 20 (74%) have raised their outlook, while just 1 (4%) has lowered its outlook - well above the historical average \"raise rate\" for the second quarter of 40-45%.   Kelly Liu Real Estate Weekly Outlook U.S. equity markets posted mixed performance this past week, while benchmark interest rates dipped to four-month lows as a lukewarm start to corporate earnings season and mixed economic data reinforced expectations that the Fed will begin cutting rates by September. Another stunning twist in a wild month of U.S. politics, President Biden announced that he would not seek reelection following weeks of mounting pressure from Democrat party leadership, who subsequently threw their support behind Vice President Kamala Harris, setting the stage for a more competitive November election. Hoya Capital After posting its worst week in three months, the S&P 500 slipped another 0.8% on the week as a powerful \"value rotation\" trade extended into a third-week. The Small-Cap 600 rallied 3.6% on the week, extending a remarkable stretch of daily outperformance over the large-cap S&P 500 to 12 of 13 sessions. The mega-cap Nasdaq 100 - which had outperformed the Small-Cap index by 40 percentage points from March 2022 through June 2024 -declined another 2.6% this week following steep losses in the prior week, as soft earnings results from a handful of mega-cap tech names added fuel to \"rotation\" dynamics. Real estate equities - which were even more significant underperformers during the Fed's rate hiking cycle - were among the leaders for a third-straight week, as a strong start to earnings season has been bolstered by interest rate tailwinds. The Equity REIT Index gained another 0.9% on the week, with 10-of-18 property sectors in positive territory, but the Mortgage REIT Index slipped 1%. The robust rebound continued for Homebuilders as well, which rallied nearly 4% as solid earnings results and hopes of long-awaited rate relief offset disappointing home sales data. Hoya Capital Short-term benchmark interest rates tumbled to five-month lows this week as an unimpressive start to earnings season and mixed economic data helped to further clear a path for Fed rate cuts to begin in September. While the Fed remained in its \"quiet period\" ahead of its meeting in the week ahead, former Fed official William Dudley called for rate cuts to begin as soon as next week, warning that the Fed may be falling behind the curve on labor market weakness. The Bank of Canada, meanwhile, cut rates for a second-straight meeting, citing an increased weight on \"downside risks,\" while WTI Crude Oil posted a third-straight weekly decline on concerns of economic weakness in Asia and Europe. The 10-Year Treasury Yield declined by five basis points this week to 4.19% - marginally above its four-month of 4.15%. The policy-sensitive 2-Year Treasury Yield dipped by thirteen basis points to 4.39%, the lowest close since February 2nd. Swaps markets now price-in in a 100% probability that the Fed will cut rates in September - up from 98% last week - and imply 2.72 rate cuts in 2024 - up from 2.47 cuts implied yesterday. Hoya Capital Real Estate Economic Data Below, we recap the most important macroeconomic data points over this past week affecting the residential and commercial real estate marketplace. Hoya Capital Soft Landing Secured? The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.8% annualized rate in the second quarter, per the latest Gross Domestic Product figures. Viewed as a \"Goldilocks\" report that likely keeps the Federal Reserve on track for September rate cuts, the report supported the view that the Fed has indeed successfully engineered a \"soft landing.\" Since Q1 2022 - corresponding to the start of the tightening cycle - real GDP has averaged 2.0% while the CPI Index has cooled from 6.3% to 3.4% Meanwhile, PCE Price Index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - showed that price pressures continued to moderate in June, with the headline PCE posting its lowest annual increase since early 2021. Headline PCE increased 0.1% in June and 2.5% from a year ago - matching estimates - as a 0.2% decline in goods prices was offset by a 0.2% increase in services. The so-called \"Supercore\" PCE metric - Core Services ex-Housing - rose 0.19% from the prior month, which pulled the 3-month average to roughly 0.2%, consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target. Hoya Capital Equity REIT & Homebuilder Week In Review Best & Worst Performance This Week Across the REIT Sector Hoya Capital Real estate earnings season kicked into gear this week with results from two dozen equity REITs, ten mortgage REITs, and a handful of housing industry companies. Results thus far have been quite impressive with trends that are broadly consistent with the \"green shoots\" discussed in our REIT Earnings Preview, including surprising strength in office leasing activity, firm residential rent trends, and a \"bottoming\" in logistics-related demand. Of the 27 equity REITs that have provided full-year guidance, 20 (74%) have raised their full-year outlook, while just 1 (4%) has lowered its outlook - well above the historical average \"raise rate\" for the second quarter of 40-45%. Even before the rate retreat sparked a \"REIT revival\" in the past several weeks, there appeared to be some \"bottoming\" in private market real estate valuations in late Spring and early summer. Perhaps most notably, we've seen signs that the long-dormant \"animal spirits\" may finally be coming alive for public REITs through IPOs and acquisitions of debt-burdened private portfolios. Hoya Capital A new REIT is born. Lineage (LINE) - the world's largest cold storage operator - raised $4.44 billion in an initial public offering this week - the largest IPO of the year in the United States, and the largest IPO of a REIT in history. LINE issued roughly 57M shares of common stock at $78/share, which was at the upper end of its previously indicated range of $70 to $82, implying a total enterprise value of over $18 billion. Lineage is the world’s largest cold storage operator with a network of roughly 480 facilities totaling over 84.1 million square feet and 3.0 billion cubic feet of capacity across countries in North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. Americold (COLD) - the second-largest cold storage operator - went public in 2018 and has had a relatively successful tenure as a public REIT, delivering annualized total returns of 10.0% since inception, nearly double that of the Equity REIT index at 5.7%. Following a historically quiet period of REIT IPO activity dating back to the start of the Fed's rate hiking cycle in early 2022, we've seen a trio of new REITs emerge this year. Last month, a former non-traded REIT Sila Realty (SILA) - which owns a $2.1B net lease healthcare portfolio - went public via a direct listing on the NYSE. Earlier this year, another former non-traded REIT, American Healthcare (AHR), went public in a roughly $700M IPO. Hoya Capital Office: Left for dead by most pundits, office REITs were leaders this past week as the initial slate of results confirmed many of the encouraging \"green shoots\" observed across industry data in recent months. Three of the five office REITs that have reported results have raised the full-year FFO outlook, while the other two maintained guidance. While still early in earnings season, occupancy rates are pacing to increase sequentially for the first time in two years, while rent growth is pacing to be the strongest since 2021. Sunbelt-focused Cousins Properties (CUZ) - one of our three \"Best Ideas in Real Estate\" - surged 13% this week after reporting strong second-quarter results and raising its full-year outlook. Driven by improved leasing activity, CUZ now expects full-year FFO growth of 1.3% - up from 0.6% previously, which would be roughly 5% above its pre-pandemic level from 2019. Leasing activity was relatively solid, with CUZ signing 391k SF achieving a record-high cash rent increase of 18.1% on these leases. CUZ also reported that its leased rate increased to 91.2%, up 40 basis points from last quarter to the highest-level since 2021. Its Sunbelt-focused peer Highwoods (HIW) also rallied 10% after reporting strong results highlighted by impressive leasing volumes and raising its full-year outlook. HIW signed 909k SF of leases, which was slightly above its pre-pandemic 2019 average. Philly-focused Brandywine (BDN) gained 10% despite reporting softer results and maintaining its full-year outlook. Leasing activity was lighter than expected, with BDN signing 164k SF during the quarter, down from roughly 350k last quarter and less than half of its pre-pandemic average. Hoya Capital Net Lease: Another highly \"Fed-sensitive\" sector, net lease REITs were also among the leaders this week following a strong slate of results. Agree Realty (ADC) gained 3% after raising its full-year FFO outlook driven by an increase in occupancy to a record-high rate of 99.8%. ADC raised its full-year acquisition outlook as well, now expecting to acquire $700M in assets this year, up from $600M previously. ADC expressed \"excitement\" on the external growth outlook after \"12 to 18 months of grided teeth and cleanse jaws,\" noting that its improved cost of capital will allow it get back to accretive portfolio growth. Getty Realty (GTY) - which focuses on convenience and automotive-related properties - rallied 4% after raising its full-year FFO outlook, citing strong portfolio performance and a lift from recent acquisitions. GTY's acquisition outlook was more cautious, however, observing \"material bid-ask spreads between buyers and sellers that has led to a significant increase in for sale inventory of net leased assets.\" Sunbelt-focused CTO Realty (CTO) also gained 4% after reporting solid second-quarter results and raising its full-year outlook, citing strong portfolio-level performance. CTO remained quiet on the acquisition front, but noted that it is \"trying to get busy,\" focusing on \"buying around the edges\" outside of the core institutional product where it has seen more cap rate compression Elsewhere, Essential Properties (EPRT) declined 1% after reporting in-line results and maintaining its full-year FFO outlook calling for sector-leading growth of 5.2%. Hoya Capital Strip Center: Sticking in the retail space, results from the initial trio of strip center REITs showed that retailer demand remained solid in the second quarter despite a modest acceleration in store closings in recent quarter after moderating to historic lows in 2022. Hawaii-focused Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX) surged 9% after reporting strong second-quarter results and raising its full-year outlook. Lifted by \"NOI improvements and G&A cost reductions,\" ALEX now expects full-year FFO growth of 11.5%, up from 10.1% previously. Grocery-focused Phillips Edison (PECO) declined 2.5%, however, after reporting in-line results and maintaining its full-year outlook. PECO continues to expect full-year FFO growth of 3.0%, and also reaffirmed its full-year NOI growth outlook of 3.8%. Leasing spreads and occupancy rates were impressive, with PECO achieving record-high 24.5% blended rent increases on new and renewal leases and record-high inline occupancy rates of 95.1% in the second quarter. PECO commented, \"We continue to see high retailer demand with no current signs of slowing down.\" Elsewhere, Retail Opportunity (ROIC) dipped 4% after it trimmed the high end of its FFO guidance - the only REIT to lower the midpoint of its guidance thus far this earnings season - noting that its higher-end reflected expectations that it would be active on the acquisitions-front, but ROIC noted that the transitions market \"has been largely idle.\" While still early in earnings season, strip center REITs are pacing to eclipse their prior record-high occupancy rate of 95.4% and are pacing for a ninth-straight quarter of double-digit lease spreads. Hoya Capital Industrial: The strong earnings season for logistics REITs continued as well, with each of the four largest industrial REITs now having raised their full-year outlook. Sunbelt-focused logistics REIT EastGroup (EGP) was little changed this week despite reporting strong results and raising its full-year outlook, citing an improved outlook on both the demand and supply front. EGP now expects full-year FFO growth of 6.9% - up from 6.2% previously - and sees NOI growth of 6.1% - up from 6.0%. EGP commented, \"The leasing environment is slowly improving, which combined with a shrinking construction pipeline, makes me optimistic about the market in the coming year....It hasn’t been a U-turn, but kind of month by month slowly improving.\" EGP recorded re-leasing spreads of 42% on a cash basis, up marginally from the 40% increase last quarter, and just barely below the record-high pace of around 45% last year. EGP commented that its \"seeing two promising trends: [first], a decline in industrial starts. Starts have been materially below 2022 peak levels for seven consecutive quarters, with the past four falling below 50M SF. [Second], my belief is when interest rates ultimately begin to fall... confidence and stability within the business community will rise... and as that demand improves, our goal is to capitalize earlier than our private peers.\" Hoya Capital Casino: Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI) gained 3% this week after reporting solid second-quarter results and raising its full-year outlook. GLPI now expects full-year FFO growth of 1.6%, up from 0.9% previously. In its earnings call, GLPI discussed its recent deals with casino operator Bally’s Corporation (BALY) totaling over $1.5B in which GLPI will acquire the real property underlying Bally’s Kansas City and Bally’s Shreveport resorts in a sale-leaseback deal for $395M in total consideration. The properties - which will continue to be operated by Bally's - will be added to the existing master lease agreement with an incremental annual rent of $32.2M, representing an 8.2% initial cash capitalization rate. GLPI also reached a $1.19B deal to acquire the land and fund the development of a new Bally's casino in Chicago at a total cash yield of 8.4%. GLPI will pay $250M for the pre-developed land upon which rent will commence under a new lease carrying a 15-year initial term with an initial cash yield of 8.0%. GLPI will then fund the construction hard costs of up to $940M at an 8.5% initial cash yield. The rent coverage for the lease is expected to be in the range of 2.0x – 2.4x.   Hoya Capital Data Center: On the downside this week, Digital Realty (DLR) - the second-largest data center REIT - dipped 6% after reporting modestly disappointing results and maintaining its full-year outlook. One of the top-performing REITs of the past two years, DLR has significantly underperformed the broader REIT sector during the recent \"value rotation\" trade over the past three weeks, dipping more than 10% since reaching a three-year high on July 17. DLR maintained its full-year outlook, calling for FFO growth of 1.3% as it continues to focus its efforts on bolstering its balance sheet and improving margins. Positively, DLR highlighted that its leverage improved to 5.3x from 6.1x last quarter, which is below its long-term target and the lowest since 3Q18 and positions the company to potentially get aggressive on the M&A front if opportunities emerge. Leasing activity was a bit softer than expected, however, following a very strong first quarter of both volumes and pricing. DLR signed $164M in incremental annualized rent - down from its record-high of $252M last quarter - and achieved blended rent growth of 4.0% on these leases, a moderation from the record-high 11.8% last quarter. Hoya Capital Single-Family Rental: Also on the downside this week, Invitation Homes (INVH) - the largest single-family rental operator in the country - declined 5% this week after reporting mixed second-quarter results and providing a cautious outlook for the back-half of 2024, citing recent weakness in several markets including Phoenix and Central Florida. Providing further color, INVH identified \"some supply sensitivities following a fantastic run in those markets,\" and noted that these markets \"are still quite healthy, but just not quite as strong as we had expected at the beginning of the year.\" INVH marginally lifted its full-year FFO growth outlook and favorably revised its expense outlook, but the revenue trends were mildly disappointing, with INVH lowering its full-year revenue growth outlook to 4.9% from 5.0% previously. INVH recorded blended rent growth of 5.0% in Q2 - up from 4.4% last quarter, but shy of the Street estimates of 5.4%. While organic growth appears to be cooling a bit relative to high expectations, INVH has remained active on the external growth front, acquiring another 445 homes in Q2 for $146M. INVH also announced deals with several homebuilder partners to construct roughly 1,000 newly built homes at a total investment of approximately $274M. Hoya Capital Manufactured Housing: Sticking in the residential sector, Equity LifeStyle (ELS) declined 1% this week after reporting mixed second-quarter results, as continued softness in its transient recreational vehicle (\"RV\") segment partially offset continued strength in its core manufactured housing (\"MH\") business and tailwinds from lower-than-expected operating expenses. Lower utility and payroll costs drove favorable revisions in the full-year expense outlook, which in turn translated to upward revisions to both full-year FFO and NOI. ELS now expects full-year FFO growth of 5.8% - up from 5.1% previously - and expects full-year NOI growth of 5.9% - up from 5.8% previously. The revenue side was a modest disappointment, however, as a -9.2% annual decline in transient and seasonal RV revenues was below expectations amid continued headwinds from higher fuel prices and challenging financing conditions on RV sales. ELS lowered its revenue growth outlook for the RV & Marina segment to 4.0% from 5.0% previously, while maintaining its MH outlook for 6.1% revenue growth. Hoya Capital Mortgage REIT Week In Review Mortgage REITs underperformed their equity REIT peers this week - with the Mortgage REIT ETF (MORT) finishing lower by 1.0% - as earnings reports from the initial slate of ten mREITs were mildly disappointing. On the upside, KKR Real Estate (KREF) - which had been among the weaker performers this year - surged 13% this week after reporting that its Book Value Per Share (\"BVPS\") actually increased 0.4% during the quarter to $15.24, as its CECL reserves adequately covered the realized losses. KREF resolved three of its four Risk-5 office loans - two through REO and one write-off - and avoided any further downgrades in its loan book. Ladder Capital (LADR) gained 1% after reporting solid second-quarter results, continuing to defy the broader headwinds on its loan book which is heavy in office (34%) and multifamily (33%). LADR recorded comparable EPS of $0.31 - topping estimates and easily covering its $0.23/share dividend - and noting that it did not have any specific impairments during the quarter. LADR commented, \"lower interest rates have given a sense that commercial real estate may have bottomed in the last six months... the worst may be over at this point.\"   Hoya Capital On the downside, Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) - the second-largest commercial mREIT - dipped 10% after reporting mixed results and announced a 24% reduction in its quarterly dividend, becoming the fifth commercial mREIT to trim its dividend this year. Citing a desire to \"strategically deploy more capital and generate incremental earnings,\" BXMT trimmed its dividend from $0.62 to $0.47 beginning in Q3, and plans to use the savings to buy back stock. BXMT reported a -3.9% decline in its BVPS in Q2 as it downgraded 12 loans (including 3 impairments) while upgrading 9 loans. BXMT noted that its portfolio was 90% performing in Q2, down from 92% in Q1. Also on the downside, residential mREIT PennyMac Mortgage (PMT) dipped 5% after reporting softer-than-expected results, noting that its comparable EPS moderated to $0.17 in Q2 - shy of its $0.40/share dividend, but PMT noted in its earnings call that \"we don't expect to adjust the dividend in the short term.\" PMT reported that its BVPS declined by -1.4% in Q2 to $15.89 as hedging costs offset an otherwise decent quarter for its credit-sensitive strategies amid a benign quarter of rate movements.   Hoya Capital Results from the other half-dozen residential mREITs this week were also mildly disappointing in light of a rather benign interest rate environment during the second quarter in which valuations of Mortgage-Backed Securities (\"MBS\") were remarkably steady. Annaly Capital (NLY) - the largest residential mREIT - declined 1% after reporting in-line results, noting that its BVPS declined by 2.4% in Q2, as rate volatility and modestly higher Treasury rates weighed on its agency MBS portfolio, which offset strength in its MSR portfolio. We saw similar themes from other agency-focused mREITs, with the combination of hedging costs and the impact of equity issuance dragging on Book Values. AGNC Investment (AGNC) declined 2% after reporting that its BVPS declined 5% during the quarter but noted that its BV has increased by 2% thus far in July. Dynex Capital (DX) slipped 1% after reporting that its BVPS also declined 5%, driven primarily by significant equity issuance, with DX raising $125M in common stock (about 10% of its market capitalization). DX noted that its BVPS is up about 2% thus far in July. DX provided upbeat commentary on the outlook for agency RMBS, noting \"Agency MBS spreads are offering double-digit nominal ROEs... the best returns will come from agency MBS, which are historically cheap relative to other fixed income alternative.\" Hoya Capital 2024 Performance Recap Despite the recent \"value rotation\" dynamic that has reversed some of the dominant market themes during the Fed's tightening cycle, real estate equities remain significant underperformers this year as we enter August. The Equity REIT Index is higher by 3.5% this year, while the Mortgage REIT Index is higher by 3.3%. This compares with the 15.3% gain on the S&P 500, the 11.3% gain for the Mid-Cap 400, and the 9.4% gain for the Small-Cap 600. Within the REIT sector, 12 of the 18 property sectors are higher for the year, led by Speciality, Healthcare, and Residential REITs - while Timber, Hotel, and Farmland REITs have lagged on the downside. At 4.19%, the 10-Year Treasury Yield is higher by 31 basis points on the year, while the 2-Year Treasury Yield has declined by 4 basis points to 4.39%. The Bloomberg US Bond Index has posted total returns of 0.8% this year, and within the bond market, credit has continued to notably outperform duration. WTI Crude Oil is higher by 14.0% this year, but the broader Commodities is flat on the year as higher oil prices have been offset by a dip in Natural Gas prices. Hoya Capital Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead Investors should brace for a frenetic week of market-moving newsflow in the week ahead, with a jam-packed slate of economic data, corporate earnings results, and key central bank policy decisions in both the U.S. and Europe. The Federal Reserve's Rate Decision will be the key event of the week, and while the FOMC will almost surely hold benchmark interest rates steady at the current 5.50% upper bound, investors will be focused on commentary from Fed Chair Powell, with expectations that he will effectively \"lock in\" a September rate cut. The Bank of England announces a rate decision on Thursday, which traders view as a \"toss-up\" between a rate cut - its first since 2020 - or holding rates steady and signaling a September cut. A critical slate of Employment data flanks the FOMC's rate decision, with the Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (\"JOLTS\") on Tuesday and the ADP Payrolls report on Wednesday preceding the Fed's decision. After the Fed's meeting, we'll see Jobless Claims data on Thursday and the key BLS Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. Economists expect job growth of roughly 185k in July on the \"headline\" Establishment Survey, which follows a solid print last month of 206k jobs. The Household Survey - which is used to calculate unemployment metrics - has exhibited substantially weaker trends in recent months, however, which has lifted the unemployment rate to nearly three-year highs. We'll also see several additional housing market indicators, including Case Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday and Pending Home Sales on Wednesday, along with Construction Spending data on Thursday. Hoya Capital For an in-depth analysis of all real estate sectors, check out all of our quarterly reports: Apartments, Homebuilders, Manufactured Housing, Student Housing, Single-Family Rentals, Cell Towers, Casinos, Industrial, Data Center, Malls, Healthcare, Net Lease, Shopping Centers, Hotels, Billboards, Office, Farmland, Storage, Timber, Mortgage, and Cannabis. Disclosure: Hoya Capital Real Estate advises two Exchange-Traded Funds listed on the NYSE. In addition to any long positions listed below, Hoya Capital is long all components in the Hoya Capital Housing 100 Index and in the Hoya Capital High Dividend Yield Index. Index definitions and a complete list of holdings are available on our website.  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