SDIV: Sticking With This Real Estate-Heavy Fund

seekingalpha07-31

SDIV has underperformed the S&P 500 but performed fine among ex-US equity areas, with the Real Estate sector showing surprising strength as of late.The ETF offers high foreign allocation to Real ...

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Gary Yeowell The Global X SuperDividend ETF (NYSEARCA:SDIV) has underperformed the S&P 500 in the past 12 months, but it has performed nearly in line with the ex-US equity market. Recently, however, there has been a surprising jump in one beleaguered sector: Real Estate. Domestically, Real Estate has been the leading area of the stock market in the past month. Financials, Industrial, and Utilities have also performed well in what has been a rotation to cyclicals and some value niches. That bodes well for SDIV which has a high foreign allocation to Real Estate. Despite ongoing property-market woes in China, I reiterate a buy rating on this high-yield ETF. The valuation remains compelling compared to my previous analysis in June of last year, while the technical situation shows signs of improvement. S&P 500 Sector Returns: Real Estate Leads M/M WisdomTree Funds According to the issuer, SDIV accesses 100 of the highest dividend-paying equities around the world, potentially increasing a portfolio's yield. The fund has made monthly distributions for 12 years running. Global X makes the case that investing in equities from around the globe can help diversify both geographic and interest rate exposure. SDIV remains a small ETF with just $785 million in assets under management as of July 29, 2024. That’s a small decline from 13 months ago. Its 0.58% annual expense ratio is moderate while the forward 12-month dividend yield is very high at 10.89%. Dividends have historically been the biggest part of the fund’s positive return composition – while shares are up 1.4% on a price-only basis since my 2023 analysis, the total return is a solid 14.4%. But share-price momentum has been soft in the past handful of months while its risk rating is lukewarm at best due to the concentrated portfolio, particularly on a sector basis. But liquidity ratings are solid with average daily trading volume of 227,000 shares and a median 30-day bid/ask spread of five basis points, per Global X. Inspecting the portfolio, the 1-star, Neutral-rated fund by Morningstar has an allocation that plots on the far right of the style box, illustrating SDIV’s high value exposure. There’s just 1% of growth access, and SMID caps make up the majority of the portfolio. So, if we see a continued rotation away from mega-cap growth stocks, which has been most pronounced in the US, then SDIV stands to benefit.  I’d like to see those trends expand internationally. Either way, today’s very low 7.8x price-to-earnings ratio is quite attractive, particularly with the ETF’s high 21.3% long-term EPS growth rate. A risk is that the earnings quality of the fund is low. SDIV: Portfolio & Factor Profiles Morningstar Another potential downside of SDIV is that its high Real Estate exposure could pose problems for investors if the global property market underperforms. I don’t think that will happen, given a reset in the market in the last few years amid rising interest rates and the reality that central banks are now slashing policy rates.  Another overweighted sector is Energy, and with oil now trading near multi-month lows, oil & gas stocks have not been the place to be. Still, Financials and Industrials have been relative winners of late, which is a boon for SDIV. Its low 1.1% weight in the Information Technology space has been an alpha-driver in the last few weeks as well. SDIV: High Real Estate Exposure, Hardly Any Tech Seeking Alpha Seasonally, we are entering a bearish stretch. The August through October period has produced negative returns, on average, over the past 10 years. So, being careful with an entry into SDIV is warranted, making it all the more important to mind the technical chart. SDIV: Bearish Seasonal Trends on Tap Seeking Alpha The Technical Take SDIV has not been in an uptrend over the last handful of quarters, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t encouraging signs. Notice in the chart below that the fund has been putting in a rounded bottom pattern, with a slight uptrend now taking place after halting its long-term downtrend last year. I see resistance in the $23 to $24 range, while support is seen near $21.  Also take a look at the rising long-term 200-day moving average – after years of declining, it has inflected positive, albeit modestly so. But that tells me that the bears have given up control of the primary trend. But with a high amount of volume by price in the low $20s, the bulls still have their work cut out for them to send the fund significantly higher.  A rally through $24 would yield an upside measured move price objective to $28 based on the $4 height of the current rounded-bottom pattern. I’ll also be watching RSI momentum trends for confirmation of a breakout if we see a solid rally now through year-end. SDIV: Support Near $21, 200dma Inflects Positive, Rounded Bottom In Play StockCharts.com The Bottom Line  I reiterate a buy rating on SDIV. With improved momentum in the Real Estate sector and the prospect of lower market yields to come, this high-yield ETF could be a winner as its technical situation turns more sanguine. With a very low P/E, it’s also a compelling value right now.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2455694923"}